Ireland's 'usually resident' population according to Census 2016 was 4.74 million and this is projected to increase under all projection scenarios to 2036. The level of regional population change over the 20 year period to 2036 is dependent on the projection scenario used. Table 2.1 shows the regional population for 2016 and the corresponding projected regional population in 2036 for the six scenarios modelled in this publication. Table 2.2 shows how the regional population is projected to evolve at 5 year intervals from 2011-2036 under each scenario.
| X-axis label | 2016 | M1F2 2036 | M2F2 2036 | M3F2 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 393.3 | 476.2 | 457.3 | 436.4 |
| Dublin | 1335.9 | 1589.9 | 1491.5 | 1400.9 |
| Mid-East | 690.9 | 965.3 | 937.1 | 906.8 |
| Midland | 293.4 | 405.4 | 393.9 | 383.3 |
| Mid-West | 472.5 | 553 | 530.6 | 506.3 |
| South-East | 421.2 | 500.2 | 489.7 | 477.5 |
| South-West | 685 | 812.8 | 781.2 | 750.9 |
| West | 447.5 | 509.7 | 490.5 | 468.5 |
If the 2016 trend of internal migration outflows from Dublin to the other regions (Dublin Outflow) returns to 2006 levels, the Mid-East region is projected to show the highest percentage population increases by 2036. The population of the Mid-East is projected to increase from 690,900 in 2016 to 965,300 by 2036 an increase of 39.7% under M1F2 (high international migration of 30,000 per annum). The more moderate M2F2 (net international migration of 20,000 per annum) shows the population of the Mid-East growing by 35.6% to 937,100 over the same period. The Midland region is also projected to gain significantly to 2036, increasing by between 112,100 persons (38.2%) and 89,900 persons (30.6%) depending on the levels of international migration. Dublin’s population is projected to increase by 254,000 to 1,589,900 (19.0%) with high international migration (M1F2) and by just 65,000 (4.9%) to 1,400,900 under the low international migration scenario M3F2 (net international migration of 10,000 per annum). All regions are projected to show some level of population growth to 2036 under the ‘Dublin Outflow’ scenarios. See Fig. 2.1.
| X-axis label | 2016 | M1F2 2036 | M2F2 2036 | M3F2 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 393.3 | 432.1 | 413.2 | 392.3 |
| Dublin | 1335.9 | 1860.7 | 1762.4 | 1671.9 |
| Mid-East | 690.9 | 876.2 | 848 | 817.7 |
| Midland | 293.4 | 339.2 | 327.6 | 317 |
| Mid-West | 472.5 | 548.4 | 525.9 | 501.6 |
| South-East | 421.2 | 446.9 | 436.4 | 424.1 |
| South-West | 685 | 809.5 | 777.9 | 747.7 |
| West | 447.5 | 499.5 | 480.3 | 458.3 |
If internal migration returns to a more traditional patterns and reflects inflows to Dublin from the other regions (Dublin Inflow), Dublin will experience the largest population increases to 2036. Dublin’s population is projected to increase by 39.3% from 1,335,900 to 1,860,700 under the high international migration scenario (M1F2) and by 31.9% to 1,762,400 under the more moderate M2F2 variant. The Mid-East region will display strong growth levels in the 20 years to 2036 increasing by between 185,300 (26.8%) under M1F2 and by 126,800 (18.4%) under the low M3F2 variant. Gentler levels of population growth are projected for the remaining regions, the one exception being the Border which is projected to show a slight decline by 2036 under M3F2, falling from 393,300 in 2016 to 392,300 in 2036 (-0.3%). See fig. 2.2.
Figure 2.3 shows the population share for the 8 NUTS3 regions in 2016 and the projected population share for the 6 projection scenarios in 2036. Tables 2.3 and 2.4 illustrate how the components of population change (births, deaths, internal and international migration) contribute to changes in population share over the period 2017-2036.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 8.29816862182463 | 28.1859228626888 | 14.5771795088193 | 6.19039581399274 | 9.96919571271837 | 8.88682589248038 | 14.4526964300785 | 9.44172504008777 |
| M1F2 Dublin Outflow 2036 | 8.19203863675112 | 27.3524786335374 | 16.6068902917283 | 6.97528101949988 | 9.51382856627711 | 8.60578508685682 | 13.9838179701426 | 8.76987979520677 |
| M2F2 Dublin Outflow 2036 | 8.20775458704482 | 26.768545157915 | 16.8186019631457 | 7.06924494810353 | 9.5225309467359 | 8.78878325528971 | 14.0204821893615 | 8.80405695240386 |
| M3F2 Dublin Outflow 2036 | 8.18685705581181 | 26.2796788927834 | 17.0106645535663 | 7.1899441634231 | 9.49839003661156 | 8.95726449548602 | 14.0874798051085 | 8.7897209972093 |
| M1F2 Dublin Inflow 2036 | 7.4335866323888 | 32.0117842641467 | 15.0744507911144 | 5.83552989360683 | 9.43470594479447 | 7.68846848437083 | 13.9273362205606 | 8.59343239230919 |
| M2F2 Dublin Inflow 2036 | 7.41581967345518 | 31.6321138904494 | 15.2199430332378 | 5.87985289868208 | 9.4390371289039 | 7.83197856298022 | 13.9618821645934 | 8.62039568028975 |
| M3F2 Dublin Inflow 2036 | 7.35941991792226 | 31.364814477139 | 15.3402009096237 | 5.94592759179343 | 9.41044423883737 | 7.9566184090365 | 14.0268482312164 | 8.5973208048091 |
The Dublin region is projected to lose population share under the ‘Dublin outflow’ scenarios, declining from 28.2% in 2016 to between 27.4% and 26.3% by 2036 depending on the levels of inward migration into Ireland. The Mid-East region is projected to gain substantial internal migration from Dublin, resulting in an increased population share from 14.6% in 2016 to between 16.6% and 17.0% over the 20 year period to 2036. The Midland region is projected to increase population share from 6.2% to between 7.0% and 7.2% by 2036. The South-West, West and Border regions are projected to lose share of the State population total under all scenarios due to declining natural increase and relatively low levels of international migration inflows.
The Dublin region is projected to gain population share under the ‘Dublin inflow’ scenarios, increasing from 28.2% of the State total in 2016 to between 31.4% and 32.0% by 2036 depending on the levels of international migration. The Mid-East region is projected to increase population share from 14.6% in 2016 lo between 15.1% and 15.3% by 2036. All other regions are projected to lose population share to 2036 under the ‘Dublin inflow’ scenarios.
The number of births in a particular period is a function of both the number of women of child bearing age (15-49 years) and the fertility levels of these women. Over 90 per cent of births are to women aged 20-39 years. Table 2.5 shows the projected change in the number of women in the relevant age group and the projected number of births across each of the projection scenarios for selected years. These results are analysed in the detailed chapters for each projection scenario.
The following section focuses on the total number of projected regional births under each scenario over the period 2017-2036. See fig. 2.4 and tables 2.3 and 2.4.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| M1F2 Dublin Outflow | 98.3 | 326.5 | 207.6 | 86.3 | 115.5 | 100.2 | 158.4 | 102.6 |
| M2F2 Dublin Outflow | 94.4 | 309.6 | 201.6 | 84 | 110.8 | 98.3 | 152.6 | 98.6 |
| M3F2 Dublin Outflow | 90.3 | 293.6 | 195.5 | 82 | 106 | 96.2 | 146.9 | 94.3 |
| M1F2 Dublin Inflow | 90.8 | 380.4 | 186.6 | 72.5 | 114.8 | 89.3 | 159.4 | 101.6 |
| M2F2 Dublin Inflow | 86.9 | 363.5 | 180.6 | 70.2 | 110.2 | 87.4 | 153.6 | 97.7 |
| M3F2 Dublin Inflow | 82.8 | 347.7 | 174.5 | 68.1 | 105.4 | 85.3 | 148 | 93.4 |
The Dublin region will account for the largest number of births under all ‘Dublin outflow’ scenarios. With high international migration (M1F2), the Dublin region will see 326,500 births between 2017 and 2036 accounting for 27.3% of total births. With low international migration (M3F2) the Dublin region is projected to have 293,600 births (26.6%) of the total births over the period. The number of births in the Mid-East region will range between 207,600 (17.4%) births under M1F2 and 195,500 (17.7%) births under M3F2. The Midland region is projected to have the lowest number of births under the 'Dublin Outflow' scenarios ranging from 86,300 (7.2%) under M1F2 to 82,000 (7.4%) under M3F2.
The Dublin region will account for a higher proportion of births under all ‘Dublin Inflow’ scenarios. With high international migration (M1F2), the Dublin region will see 380,400 births between 2017 and 2036 accounting for 31.8% of the total over the projection period. Even with low international migration (M3F2), the Dublin region will experience 347,700 births equating to 31.5% of the total. The Mid-East region will account for a smaller proportion of births under the 'Dublin inflow' scenarios ranging between 186,600 (15.6%) births under M1F2 and 174,500 (15.8%) births under M3F2. The Midland region is projected to have the lowest number of births over the period for the 'Dublin Inflow' scenarios ranging from 72,500 under M1F2 to 68,100 under the M3F2.scenario. The total number of births for the remaining regions will be broadly consistent across the scenarios.
In 2016 four out of five deaths were to persons aged 65 years and over, so any changes in the numbers in this age group would be expected to impact on the projected number of deaths. Table 2.6 shows the projected change in the number of persons in this age group and the projected number of deaths across 6 projection scenarios for selected years. These results are analysed in the detailed chapters for each projection scenario.
The following section focuses on the total number of projected regional deaths over the period 2017-2036. Regardless of the projection scenario used the total number of deaths over the period 2017-2036 will be in the range of 714,000 – 722,600 persons. See fig. 2.5 and tables 2.3 and 2.4.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| M1F2 Dublin Outflow | 66.2 | 188.3 | 94.9 | 43.6 | 77.2 | 67.6 | 110.1 | 74.6 |
| M2F2 Dublin Outflow | 65.8 | 186.4 | 94.3 | 43.4 | 76.8 | 67.4 | 109.5 | 74.2 |
| M3F2 Dublin Outflow | 65.5 | 184.8 | 93.9 | 43.3 | 76.4 | 67.2 | 109 | 73.9 |
| M1F2 Dublin Inflow | 65.4 | 192.1 | 93.5 | 43.4 | 76.8 | 67.1 | 109.9 | 74.4 |
| M2F2 Dublin Inflow | 65 | 190.2 | 93 | 43.2 | 76.4 | 66.9 | 109.2 | 74 |
| M3F2 Dublin Inflow | 64.7 | 188.6 | 92.5 | 43 | 76 | 66.7 | 108.8 | 73.7 |
The Dublin region will account for the largest proportion of total deaths across all scenarios ranging from 192,100 (26.6%) under the M1F2 ‘Dublin inflow’ scenario to 184,800 (25.9%) under the M3F2 ‘Dublin Outflow’ scenario, over the 20 year period to 2036. There is projected to be little variation in the percentage share of deaths across the regions to 2036, regardless of the scenario chosen.
Figure 2.6 and tables 2.3 and 2.4 (above) show the regional distribution for the two internal migration assumptions from 2017 to 2036.
| X-axis label | Dublin Outflow | Dublin Inflow |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 20.7 | -16.7 |
| Dublin | -192.6 | 28.2 |
| Mid-East | 108.4 | 39 |
| Midland | 35.7 | -17 |
| Mid-West | -0.4 | -4.8 |
| South-East | 32.5 | -10.5 |
| South-West | -9.8 | -14.4 |
| West | 5.5 | -4 |
Under the ‘Dublin Outflow’ internal migration assumption, the Dublin region is projected to see total outflows of 192,600 to other regions over the 20 year period to 2036. The primary beneficiaries from these outflows are projected to be the Mid-East (+108,400), Midland (+35,700), South-East (+32,500) and Border regions (+20,700). The South-West region is projected to see an outflow of 9,800 to 2036.
Under the ‘Dublin Inflow’ internal migration assumption the Dublin region is projected to see total inflows of 28,200 from other regions between 2017 and 2036. The Mid-East region is projected to gain 39,000 internal migrants from other regions over the same period. All other regions are projected to lose population, with the Midland (-17,000) and Border (-16,700) regions experiencing the largest outflows to 2036.
Figure 2.7 and tables 2.3 and 2.4 (above) show the regional distribution for the three net international migration assumptions over the 20 year period to 2036.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| M1F2 | 30 | 308.4 | 53.2 | 33.7 | 42.7 | 14 | 89.3 | 28.7 |
| M2F2 | 14.7 | 225 | 30.5 | 24.3 | 24.3 | 5.2 | 62.9 | 13 |
| M3F2 | -2.4 | 148.8 | 5.9 | 15.5 | 4.5 | -5.2 | 37.8 | -4.9 |
The Dublin region is projected to account for over 50% of net international migration under all scenarios. The high migration scenario (M1) anticipates net inward migration of 30,000 persons per annum equating to 600,000 persons over the 20 year period to 2036. 308,400 (51.4%) of these are projected to reside in the Dublin region. The South-West and Mid-East regions are also projected to see significant net inflows of 89,300 (14.9%) and 53,200 (8.9%) to 2036. The remaining regions are projected to experience gentler net inflows under the M1 assumption.
The more moderate M2 assumption projects net inward migration of 20,000 persons per annum this equates to 400,000 persons over the 20 year period to 2036. 225,000 (56.3%) of these persons are projected to move to the Dublin region. The South-West region is projected to see net inflows of 62,900 (15.7%), while all other regions will experience net inflows of less than 10.0%.
The low migration assumption (M3) projects net inward migration of 10,000 persons per annum from 2017 to 2036, amounting to net inward migration of 200,000 persons in total. Almost three quarters of these persons (148,800) are projected to reside in Dublin. Under this scenario the South-East (-5,200), West (-4,900) and Border (-2,400) regions are projected to have net international migration outflows.
The next six chapters in this report provide an in depth analysis of the individual regional population projection scenarios. Each chapter includes a section on the projected age structure and corresponding young, old and combined dependency ratios arising under each scenario.
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