Regional Population Projections 2017 - 2036

These assumptions were agreed by an Expert Group (see membership in Appendix 3) which met during the period November 2018 to March 2019.  The rationale underpinning the assumptions agreed by the Expert Group are outlined in the remainder of this chapter.

The age specific fertility rates for each region in 2016 were used as the starting point. The projection model reflects not only the overall fall in total fertility to 1.6 by 2031, but also incorporates the different fertility levels across the regions and projects these into the future. For example, the regional fertility rates in 2016 varied from a high of 1.98 in the Border and Midland regions to a low of 1.65 in the Dublin region; this differential in rates of change was maintained in the projected regional fertility rates between 2016 and 2036, while being constrained by the projected total fertility rate for the State for any given year. See table 1.2.

While consideration was given to examining the use of Regional Life Tables for this exercise it was decided to use the national mortality assumption across the regions given the relatively small number of deaths in some regions, combined with the relatively small impact of regional differentials in the number of deaths.

Mortality Assumption  At national level the assumptions are that mortality rates will improve (by 2.5% per annum for men and 2.0% per annum for women) consistent with gains in life expectancy at birth from: - 79.3 years in 2015 to 83.6 years in 2036 for males - 83.3 years in 2015 to 86.5 years in 2036 for females

The Expert Group felt that the three international migration assumptions used in compiling the State population and labour force projections should also be modelled for the regional projections.

M1: Net migration +30,000 per annum to 2036

M2: Net migration +20,000 per annum to 2036

M3: Net migration +10,000 per annum to 2036

The gross flow components of these assumptions, (M1, M2 and M3), were regionally distributed using patterns observed in the Labour Force Survey for the period 2011-2016. Flows were also broken down by single year of age and gender on the same basis as for the total flows into and out of the State (i.e. no region-specific age distribution has been applied). See table 1.3 and table 1.4.

By examining a person’s usual residence at the time of a census and one year previously it is possible to determine inter-regional migration patterns. An analysis of the data from the 1991 and 1996 censuses for internal migration between regions reveals a fairly stable picture in terms of the magnitude of the inward, outward and net migration flows. During this period the Dublin and Mid-East regions had net inward migration flows while flows for all other regions showed a net outflow. The 2002 and 2006 Censuses, however, revealed a substantially different pattern of internal migration between regions and in particular for the Dublin region which showed a net outward flow of 12,600 persons in the year to April 2002 and 10,200 in the year to April 2006. The 2011 census reflected a small net inflow of 689 persons into Dublin in the year to April. The 2016 Census showed a reversal back to the 2002 and 2006 pattern of internal migration flows with Dublin experiencing net outflows of 4,400 persons in the year to April 2016, with the Mid-East region the primary beneficiary.

Following close consideration of the various internal migration flows, the Expert Group agreed on two contrasting internal migration patterns to project the regional population forward to 2036. The 'Dublin Outflow' assumption chosen by the Expert Group sees internal migration outflows from Dublin increasing from -4,400 persons in 2016, back to 2006 levels of -10,200  persons per annum, (moving from Dublin to other regions) by 2021.  The 'Dublin Inflow' assumption chosen by the Expert Group sees internal migration outflows from Dublin decreasing from -4,400 in 2016 and reverting to the historic (1996 census) trend of annual inflows of 2,100 persons from other regions to Dublin by 2021. See table 1.5 and fig 1.4.