The Regional Population Projections presents six different population outcomes resulting from the combination of assumptions made by the expert group regarding fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. The assumptions underpinning the M2F2 (Dublin Inflow) scenario are outlined below:
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M2F2 (Dublin Inflow) – Assumptions F2 Fertility: Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.8 in 2016 to 1.6 by 2031 and to remain constant thereafter to 2036 Mortality: Mortality rates for males and females are assumed to improve at 2.5% and 2.0% per annum respectively to 2036 resulting in gains in life expectancy from: - 79.3 years in 2015 to 83.6 years in 2036 for males Internal Migration (Dublin Inflow) 2016 internal migration flows of -4,400 per annum from Dublin reverting to a traditional pattern of +2,100 inflows from other regions to Dublin per annum by 2021 and remaining constant thereafter. M2 International Migration: Medium net migration of +20,000 per annum to 2036. This assumption reflects average net migration over the 20 year period 1997-2016
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Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 4,739,600 in 2016 to 5,571,700 by 2036. This is a total population increase of 832,100 (17.6%) persons over the 20 year period to 2036. All regions are projected to experience population growth to 2036. Internal migration inflows and significant net inward international migration will see the population of Dublin showing the strongest growth, increasing its population by 426,500 from 1,335,900 in 2016 to 1,762,400 by 2036 (+31.9%). The Mid-East region is also projected to gain significantly to 2036 increasing its population by 157,100 persons (22.7%) over the period. All other regions are projected to show levels of population growth below the national average of 17.6%. The South-East region is projected to show the smallest level of population increase of 3.6% under this scenario, increasing from 421,200 persons in 2016 to 436,400 persons in 2036. See table 6.1 and fig 6.1.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 393.3 | 1335.9 | 690.9 | 293.4 | 472.5 | 421.2 | 685 | 447.5 |
| 2021 | 403.8 | 1443.7 | 735.7 | 308.1 | 490.1 | 432.8 | 716.9 | 461.1 |
| 2026 | 408.4 | 1555.4 | 775 | 316.5 | 503.8 | 437 | 740.7 | 469.7 |
| 2031 | 411.2 | 1659.9 | 811.5 | 322.7 | 515.3 | 437.9 | 760.3 | 475.6 |
| 2036 | 413.2 | 1762.4 | 848 | 327.6 | 525.9 | 436.4 | 777.9 | 480.3 |
The number of births in a particular period is a function of both the number of women of child bearing age (15-49 years) and the fertility levels of these women. Typically over 90 per cent of births are to women aged 20-39 years. Table 6.2 shows the projected change in the number of women in this age group and the projected number of births across each of the regions for selected years. Figure 6.2 compares the regional births in 2016 with the projected births in 2036.
The Mid-East and Dublin will see the number of women aged 20-39 increasing by 21.8% and 18.7% respectively by 2036, but these increases will not result in higher births due to corresponding declines in fertility rates. The number of births in the Mid-East region are projected to be the same in 2036 as in 2016, while the number of births in Dublin are projected to be 800 (4.1%) lower in 2036 than in 2016. Declining fertility rates will lead to lower births across the remaining regions by 2036, ranging from a decrease of 800 (-12.5%) in the Mid-West to a decrease of 1,700 in the South-East (-30.4%).
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Dublin | 19.6 | 18.8 |
| Mid-East | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| Midland | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Mid-West | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| South-East | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| South-West | 9 | 7.6 |
| West | 5.7 | 4.7 |
Differential age structural effects will therefore largely dictate changes in the number of deaths projected over the period 2016 to 2036. In 2016 four out of five deaths were to persons aged 65 years and over. Any changes in the numbers in this age group would be expected to impact on the projected number of deaths.
Table 6.3 shows the projected change in the number of persons in this age group and the projected number of deaths across each of the regions for selected years. In spite of pronounced increases in this age group in all regions between 2016 and 2036 (+80.5% at State level), the increase in deaths is projected to be more moderate at 44.0% due to the impact of assumed decreases in mortality rates.
The Mid-East region will see the largest percentage increase, with the number of deaths increasing from 3,300 in 2016 to 5,900 in 2036 (+78.8%) while the Border region will show the smallest percentage increase of 31.0% (+900). The Dublin region is projected to show the largest volume increase in deaths, rising from 7,900 in 2016 to 11,300 by 2036 (+3,400). See figure 6.3.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Dublin | 7.9 | 11.3 |
| Mid-East | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| Midland | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Mid-West | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| South-East | 2.8 | 4 |
| South-West | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| West | 3.1 | 4.3 |
Internal migration, international migration and natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) will all contribute significantly to the level of population change by 2036.
| International migration | Internal Migration | Natural Increase | |
| Border | 14.7 | -16.7 | 21.9 |
| Dublin | 225 | 28.2 | 173.3 |
| Mid-East | 30.5 | 39 | 87.6 |
| Midland | 24.3 | -17 | 27 |
| Mid-West | 24.3 | -4.8 | 33.8 |
| South-East | 5.2 | -10.5 | 20.5 |
| South-West | 62.9 | -14.4 | 44.4 |
| West | 13 | -4 | 23.7 |
Table 6.4 and figure 6.4 illustrate the contribution of the components to population change. The Dublin region will show the highest level of population change with annual increases of 1.4% over the period. Dublin will benefit significantly from net international migration, which will account for almost 53.0% of the total population change of 426,600 in the Dublin region. The Mid-East and Dublin will gain population share resulting from net internal migration inflows of 39,000 and 28,200 respectively, all other regions will experience internal migration outflows. Natural increase will play an important role in population change across all regions. Dublin will have the largest cumulative natural increase of 173,300 while the South-East will see the smallest natural increase of 20,500 over the 20 year period to 2036.
Table 6.5 shows the population results by broad age groups and the corresponding dependency ratios for five-year intervals from 2016 – 2036.
The young population – Ages 0 – 14
Census 2016 showed that there were 1,005,500 persons aged 0-14 years in the State, this is projected to decline to 853,100 by 2036. The largest percentage decreases in this age group will be in the South-East and Border regions with projected decreases of 27,400 (-29.9%) and 23,000 (-26.6%) respectively. Dublin is the only region projected to have an increase in this age group by 2036, showing an increase of 5,800 (2.2%) by 2036.
Working age population – Ages 15 – 64
The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64. In 2016 there were 3,104,300 persons in this age category, this is projected to increase to 3,582,000 (+15.4%) by 2036. This age group is projected to increase across 7 of the 8 regions by 2036. Dublin will have the largest increase in this age group over the period rising from 913,100 in 2016 to 1,202,500 (+31.7%). The South-East is projected to show a decrease in the working age population from 269,600 in 2016 to 265,700 by 2036 (-1.5%). See figure 3.5.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 247.3 | 252.1 | 256.1 | 256.3 | 250.7 |
| Dublin | 913.1 | 977.9 | 1059.7 | 1134.4 | 1202.5 |
| Mid-East | 449.2 | 478.1 | 510.4 | 532.1 | 542.7 |
| Midland | 188.2 | 196.6 | 203 | 206 | 204.7 |
| Mid-West | 304.1 | 311.6 | 320.7 | 325.7 | 326.3 |
| South-East | 269.6 | 274.1 | 276.5 | 273.8 | 265.7 |
| South-West | 445.8 | 461.9 | 479.3 | 490 | 493.4 |
| West | 287 | 291.3 | 296 | 298.4 | 296.1 |
The older population – Ages 65 and over
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 to 1,136,700 (+80.5%) by 2036.
The Mid-East region is projected to show the largest percentage increase of 113.3%, rising from 77,400 persons aged over 65 in 2016 to 165,100 by 2036. The Border region is projected to see the smallest percentage increase in this age group of 66.6% (39,500) by 2036.
Projected dependency ratios
The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 32.4% nationally in 2016. This is projected to fall steadily across all regions, ranging from a high of 25.8% in the Mid-East to a low of 22.1% in Dublin by 2036.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midlands | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 24 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 19.9 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 23.2 |
| 2021 | 27.2 | 19.5 | 20 | 22.8 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 24.7 | 26.7 |
| 2026 | 30.7 | 21 | 22.6 | 26.1 | 29.3 | 29.6 | 27.6 | 30.2 |
| 2031 | 34.6 | 22.7 | 26.1 | 30.1 | 32.6 | 34.4 | 30.9 | 33.7 |
The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 20.3% at a State level in 2016. There was quite a spread across the regions in 2016 with an older dependency rate of 24% in the Border region and 17.2% in the Mid-East region. These rates are projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The South-East is projected to have the highest old dependency ratio of 40.1%, the Dublin region is projected to have the lowest old dependency ratio of 24.5%. See figure 5.5.
The two ratios combined give the total dependency ratio. In 2016 the total dependency ratio of 52.7% meant that there were roughly 2 people of working age for each person aged 0-14 and 65+. Dublin is projected to have the lowest combined dependency rate of 48.6% by 2036 with the highest combined dependency ratio of 62.0% in the Border region.
