The Regional Population Projections presents six different population outcomes resulting from the combination of assumptions made by the expert group regarding fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. The assumptions underpinning the M3F2 (Dublin outflow) scenario are outlined below:
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M3F2 (Dublin Outflow) – Assumptions F2 Fertility: Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.8 in 2016 to 1.6 by 2031 and to remain constant thereafter to 2036 Mortality: Mortality rates for males and females are assumed to improve at 2.5% and 2.0% per annum respectively to 2036 resulting in gains in life expectancy from: - 79.3 years in 2015 to 83.6 years in 2036 for males Internal Migration (Dublin Outflow) 2016 internal migration outflows of -4,400 from Dublin to other regions reverting to the 2006 pattern of -10,200 outflows from Dublin annually by 2021 and remaining constant thereafter. M3 International Migration: Low net migration of +10,000 per annum to 2036. |
Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 4,739,600 in 2016 to 5,330,600 by 2036. This is a total population increase of 591,000 (12.5%) persons over the 20 year period to 2036. All regions are expected to experience population growth to 2036. The Mid-East is projected to gain substantially from ‘Dublin outflows’ increasing its population from 690,900 in 2016 to 906,800 by 2036, an increase of almost 31.2%. The Midland region is also projected to gain significantly to 2036 under the ‘Dublin outflow’ scenario increasing its population by 89,900 persons (30.6%) over the period. Under this scenario the Dublin region will experience internal migration outflows of 10,200 per annum from 2021 and is projected to grow by just 4.9% (less than half the State average of 12.5%) from 1,335,900 in 2016 to 1,400,900 in 2036. The West region is projected to show the smallest level of population increase of 4.7% under this scenario, increasing from 447,500 persons in 2016 to 468,500 in 2036. See table 7.1 and fig 7.1.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 393.3 | 1335.9 | 690.9 | 293.4 | 472.5 | 421.2 | 685 | 447.5 |
| 2021 | 406.1 | 1383.7 | 742 | 315 | 486 | 437.9 | 710.8 | 458.5 |
| 2026 | 417.2 | 1403.5 | 796.8 | 337.8 | 495.1 | 452.6 | 728.4 | 464.7 |
| 2031 | 426.9 | 1407.1 | 851 | 360.3 | 501.4 | 465.4 | 741 | 467.6 |
| 2036 | 436.4 | 1400.9 | 906.8 | 383.3 | 506.3 | 477.5 | 750.9 | 468.5 |
The number of births in a particular period is a function of both the number of women of child bearing age (15-49 years) and the fertility levels of these women. Typically over 90 per cent of births are to women aged 20-39 years. Table 7.2 shows the projected change in the number of women in this age group and the projected number of births across each of the regions for selected years. Figure 7.2 compares the regional births in 2016 with the projected births in 2036.
Declining fertility rates, low levels of international migration and internal migration outflows will lead to projected births in Dublin declining from 19,600 in 2016 to 11,900 in 2036 (-39.3%). The West, South-West and Mid-West regions are also projected to show significant percentage decreases in 2036 of 1,300 (-22.8%), 2,000 (-22.2%) and 1,200 (-18.8%) on the 2016 births figure. Conversely the Mid-East and Midland regions will benefit from international and internal migration inflows, resulting in the number of women aged 20-39 in these regions increasing by 40.0% and 38.6% respectively by 2036. Therefore, the number of births in the Mid-East region are projected to be 1,400 (14.3%) higher in 2036 than in 2016, the corresponding change in the Midland region is 500 equating to 12.2% of an increase.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Dublin | 19.6 | 11.9 |
| Mid-East | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| Midland | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Mid-West | 6.4 | 5.2 |
| South-East | 5.6 | 5 |
| South-West | 9 | 7 |
| West | 5.7 | 4.4 |
Differential age structural effects will therefore largely dictate changes in the number of deaths projected over the period 2016 to 2036. In 2016 four out of five deaths were to persons aged 65 years and over. Any changes in the numbers in this age group would be expected to impact on the projected number of deaths.
Table 7.3 shows the projected change in the number of persons in the 65 and over age group and the projected number of deaths across each of the regions for selected years. Despite pronounced increases in this age group in all regions between 2016 and 2036 (+79.1% at State level), the increase in deaths is projected to be more moderate at 42.6%. This is due to the impact of assumed decreases in mortality rates.
The Mid-East region will see the largest percentage increase, with the number of deaths increasing from 3,300 in 2016 to 6,000 in 2036 (+81.8%) while the Mid-West region will show the smallest percentage increase of 28.6%. The Dublin region will show the largest volume increase from 7,900 in 2016 to 10,800 in 2036 (+2,900). See figure 7.3.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Dublin | 7.9 | 10.8 |
| Mid-East | 3.3 | 6 |
| Midland | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Mid-West | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| South-East | 2.8 | 4 |
| South-West | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| West | 3.1 | 4.3 |
Internal migration, international migration and natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) will all contribute significantly to the level of population change by 2036.
| International migration | Internal Migration | Natural Increase | |
| Border | -2.4 | 20.7 | 24.8 |
| Dublin | 148.8 | -192.6 | 108.8 |
| Mid-East | 5.9 | 108.4 | 101.6 |
| Midland | 15.5 | 35.7 | 38.7 |
| Mid-West | 4.5 | -0.4 | 29.6 |
| South-East | -5.2 | 32.5 | 29 |
| South-West | 37.8 | -9.8 | 37.9 |
| West | -4.9 | 5.5 | 20.4 |
Table 7.4 and figure 7.4 illustrate the contribution of the components to population change. The Mid-East and Midland regions are projected to show the highest levels of population change with annual increases of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively over the period. Internal migration inflows will strongly influence this population change in contributing 108,400 of the 215,900 population increase projected for the Mid-East and 35,700 of the increase of 89,900 projected for the Midland. The Dublin region will account for 148,800 of the total net international migration inflows of 200,000 anticipated over the projection period. This helps to largely offset the 192,600 internal migration outflows from Dublin. Dublin will see the greatest natural increase of 108,800 over the 20 years to 2036, resulting in the region growing by 0.2% per annum. The West will see the smallest natural increase of 20,400 over the period, however, this will account for most of the population increase of 21,000 to 2036.
Table 7.5 shows the population results by broad age groups and the corresponding dependency ratios for five-year intervals from 2016 – 2036.
The young population – Ages 0 – 14
Census 2016 showed that there were 1,005,500 persons aged 0-14 years in the State, this is projected to decline to 799,900 by 2036. All regions are projected to show a decrease under this scenario. The largest percentage decreases in this age group are projected to be in the Dublin, West and South-West regions with projected decreases of 73,200 (-28.2%), 26,500 (-28.2%) and 37,300 (-26.3%) respectively.
Working age population – Ages 15 – 64
The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64. In 2016 there were 3,104,300 persons in this age class, this is projected to increase to 3,402,900 (+9.6%) by 2036. This age group is projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The Mid-East will see the largest percentage increase in this cohort over the period rising from 449,200 in 2016 to 585,700 (+30.4%). The West will show the smallest percentage increase of 1,500 (+0.5%) by 2036. See figure 7.5.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 247.3 | 253.7 | 262.5 | 267.4 | 266.9 |
| Dublin | 913.1 | 927.6 | 938.2 | 941.8 | 935.6 |
| Mid-East | 449.2 | 483.9 | 528.7 | 562.4 | 585.7 |
| Midland | 188.2 | 202 | 219.1 | 233.2 | 243.7 |
| Mid-West | 304.1 | 308 | 313.4 | 314.6 | 311.1 |
| South-East | 269.6 | 278.8 | 289.6 | 295.2 | 295.7 |
| South-West | 445.8 | 457.3 | 470.7 | 477.2 | 475.6 |
| West | 287 | 289.5 | 292.8 | 293.2 | 288.5 |
The older population – Ages 65 and over
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 to 1,127,800 (+79.1%) by 2036.
Each region will show significant increases in this age group over the projection period. The Mid-East region is projected to show the largest percentage increase of 115.1%, rising from 77,400 persons aged over 65 in 2016 to 166,500 by 2036. The Border region is projected to see the smallest percentage increase in this age group, increasing by 40,900 (+68.9%) by 2036.
Projected dependency ratios
The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 32.4% nationally in 2016. This is projected to fall steadily across all regions, ranging from a high of 27.3% in the Midland to a low of 20.0% in Dublin by 2036.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midlands | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 24 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 19.9 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 23.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | 20.4 | 19.8 | 22.2 | 26.4 | 25.3 | 24.9 | 26.8 |
| 2026 | 30 | 23.2 | 21.9 | 24.4 | 29.9 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 30.6 |
| 2031 | 33.5 | 26.2 | 24.9 | 27 | 33.7 | 32.3 | 31.8 | 34.5 |
| 2036 | 37.5 | 29.8 | 28.4 | 29.9 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.9 | 39 |
The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 20.3% at a State level in 2016. There was quite a spread across the regions in 2016 with an older dependency rate of 24% in the Border region and 17.2% in the Mid-East region. These rates are projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The West, Mid-West and Border regions are projected to have the highest old dependency ratios of 39.0%, 38.0% and 37.5% respectively. The Mid-East region is projected to have the lowest old dependency ratio of 28.4%. See figure 7.6.
The two ratios combined give the total dependency ratio. In 2016 the total dependency ratio of 52.7% meant that there were roughly 2 people of working age for each person aged 0-14 and 65+. Dublin is projected to have the lowest combined dependency ratio of 49.7% by 2036 with the highest combined dependency ratio of 63.5% in the Border region.
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