The Regional Population Projections presents six different population outcomes resulting from the combination of assumptions made by the expert group regarding fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. The assumptions underpinning the M1F2 (Dublin Outflow) scenario are outlined below:
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M1F2 (Dublin Outflow) – Assumptions F2 Fertility: Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.8 in 2016 to 1.6 by 2031 and to remain constant thereafter to 2036 Mortality: Mortality rates for males and females are assumed to improve at 2.5% and 2.0% per annum respectively to 2036 resulting in gains in life expectancy from: - 79.3 years in 2015 to 83.6 years in 2036 for males Internal Migration (Dublin Outflow) 2016 internal migration flows of -4,400 from Dublin to other regions reverting to the 2006 pattern of -10,200 outflows from Dublin annually by 2021 and remaining constant thereafter M1 International Migration: High net migration of +30,000 per annum to 2036 |
Ireland’s population is projected to be 5,812,500 by 2036, which equates to a total population increase of 1,072,900 (22.6%) persons from 2016 to 2036. All regions are expected to experience population growth to 2036. The Mid-East is projected to gain significantly from ‘Dublin outflows’ increasing its population from 690,900 in 2016 to 965,300 by 2036 an increase of 39.7%. The Midland region is also projected to gain significantly to 2036 increasing its population by 112,100 persons (38.2%) over the period. Under this scenario the Dublin region will experience internal migration outflows of 10,200 per annum by 2021 and is projected to grow by 19.0% (below the State average of 22.6%) from 1,335,900 in 2016 to 1,589,900 in 2036. The West region is projected to show the smallest level of population increase of 13.9% under this scenario, increasing by 62,200 persons from 447,500 persons in 2016 to 509,700 in 2036. See table 3.1 and fig 3.1.
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midland | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 393.3 | 1335.9 | 690.9 | 293.4 | 472.5 | 421.2 | 685 | 447.5 |
| 2021 | 414.4 | 1426 | 754.2 | 319.8 | 495.8 | 442.7 | 724.3 | 467 |
| 2026 | 435.2 | 1491.2 | 823.1 | 347.9 | 516.3 | 463 | 756.8 | 483.2 |
| 2031 | 455.5 | 1544.1 | 893 | 376.3 | 534.9 | 481.8 | 785.6 | 497.1 |
| 2036 | 476.2 | 1589.9 | 965.3 | 405.4 | 553 | 500.2 | 812.8 | 509.7 |
The number of births in a particular period is a function of both the number of women of child bearing age (15-49 years) and the fertility levels of these women. Typically over 90 per cent of births are to women aged 20-39 years. Table 3.2 shows the projected change in the number of women in this age group and the projected number of births across each of the regions for selected years. Figure 3.2 compares the regional births in 2016 with the projected regional births in 2036.
Declining fertility rates and internal migration outflows will lead to projected births in Dublin declining from 19,600 in 2016 to 14,900 in 2036 (-24.0%). The West and South-West regions are also projected to experience decreases in 2036 of 600 (10.5%) and 900 (10.0%) respectively on the 2016 births figure. Conversely the Mid-East and Midland regions will benefit from international and internal migration inflows, resulting in the number of women aged 20-39 in these regions increasing by 52.7% and 49.6% respectively by 2036. As a consequence the number of births in the Mid-East region are projected to be 2,500 (25.5%) higher in 2036 than in 2016, the corresponding change in the Midland region is 900 equating to 22.0% of an increase. Births in the Mid-West and South-East regions are projected to remain broadly in line with 2016 results.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| Dublin | 19.6 | 14.9 |
| Mid-East | 9.8 | 12.3 |
| Midland | 4.1 | 5 |
| Mid-West | 6.4 | 6.1 |
| South-East | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| South-West | 9 | 8.1 |
| West | 5.7 | 5.1 |
The mortality assumptions at national level envisage a decrease in mortality rates consistent with increases in life expectancy at birth, of 4.3 years for males and 3.2 years for females, between 2015 and 2036. Because of the similarities in regional mortality rates the national assumptions have been applied uniformly at regional level. Differential age structural effects will therefore largely dictate changes in the number of deaths projected over the period 2017 to 2036. In 2016 four out of five deaths were to persons aged 65 years and over. Any changes in the numbers in this age group would be expected to impact on the projected number of deaths.
Table 3.3 shows the projected change in the number of persons aged 65 years and over and the projected number of deaths across each of the regions for selected years. In spite of pronounced increases in this age group in all regions between 2016 and 2036 (+82.1% at State level), the increase in deaths is projected to be more modest at 45.6%. This is due to the moderating effect of assumed decreases in mortality rates.
The Mid-East region will see the largest percentage increase in deaths, with the number increasing from 3,300 in 2016 to 6,100 in 2036 (84.8%) while the Mid-West region will show the smallest increase of 1,100 (31.4%). The Dublin region will show the largest volume increase from 7,900 in 2016 to 11,100 in 2036 (3,200). See figure 3.3.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|
| Border | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| Dublin | 7.9 | 11.1 |
| Mid-East | 3.3 | 6.1 |
| Midland | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Mid-West | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| South-East | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| South-West | 4.6 | 6.6 |
| West | 3.1 | 4.4 |
Internal migration, international migration and natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) will all contribute significantly to the level of population change by 2036.
| International migration | Internal Migration | Natural Increase | |
| Border | 30 | 20.7 | 32.1 |
| Dublin | 308.4 | -192.6 | 138.2 |
| Mid-East | 53.2 | 108.4 | 112.7 |
| Midland | 33.7 | 35.7 | 42.7 |
| Mid-West | 42.7 | -0.4 | 38.3 |
| South-East | 14 | 32.5 | 32.6 |
| South-West | 89.3 | -9.8 | 48.3 |
| West | 28.7 | 5.5 | 28 |
Table 3.4 and figure 3.4 illustrate the contribution of the components to population change. The Mid-East and Midland regions are projected to show the highest level of population change with annual increases of 1.7% and 1.6% respectively over the period. Internal migration inflows will strongly influence this population change in contributing 108,400 (39.5%) of the 274,400 population increase projected for the Mid-East and 35,700 (31.8%) of the increase of 112,100 projected for the Midland. The Dublin region will benefit significantly from net international migration, accounting for 308,400 (51.4%) of the total net international migration inflows anticipated over the projection period. This more than compensates for the 192,600 internal migration outflows from Dublin and the region is projected to show population growth of 0.9% per annum. The natural increase will play an important role in population change across all regions typically, contributing around 40% of the total population increase over the period.
Table 3.5 shows the population results by broad age groups and the corresponding dependency ratios for five-year intervals from 2016 – 2036.
The young population - Ages 0 – 14
Census 2016 showed that there were 1,005,500 persons aged 0-14 years in the State, this is projected to decline to 905,800 by 2036. The largest percentage decreases in this age group are projected to be in the West, South-West and South-East regions with projected decreases of 16,900 (-18.0%), 23,900 (-16.8%) and 13,300 (-14.5%) respectively. Only 2 of the 8 regions are projected to have an increase in this age group by 2036. The Midland is projected to show an increase of 3,800 (5.6%) and the Mid-East is projected to show an increase of 4,100 (2.5%), both regions experiencing higher births resulting from internal migration inflows.
Working age population – Ages 15 – 64
The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64. In 2016 there were 3,104,300 persons in this age category, this is projected to increase to 3,759,800 (+21.1%) by 2036. This age group is projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The Mid-East will see the largest percentage increase in this cohort over the period rising from 449,200 in 2016 to 628,100 (+38.9%). The West will show the smallest percentage increase of 31,600 (+11.0%) by 2036. See figure 3.5.
| X-axis label | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | 247.3 | 260.5 | 276.4 | 288.6 | 295.9 |
| Dublin | 913.1 | 962.3 | 1007.5 | 1046.6 | 1077.9 |
| Mid-East | 449.2 | 493.8 | 549 | 593.5 | 628.1 |
| Midland | 188.2 | 206 | 227 | 245.1 | 260 |
| Mid-West | 304.1 | 316 | 329.8 | 339.5 | 345.1 |
| South-East | 269.6 | 282.7 | 297.8 | 307.8 | 312.7 |
| South-West | 445.8 | 468.4 | 493 | 511 | 521.5 |
| West | 287 | 296.5 | 307.2 | 315.2 | 318.6 |
The older population – Ages 65 and over
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 to 1,146,900 (+82.1%) by 2036.
Each region will show an increase in excess of 70% in this age group over the projection period. The Mid-East region is projected to show the largest percentage increase of just over 118.0%, rising from 77,400 persons aged over 65 in 2016 to 168,800 by 2036. The Border and West regions are projected to see the smallest percentage change in this age group, both showing increases of 71.5% by 2036.
Projected dependency ratios
The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 32.4% nationally in 2016. This is projected to fall steadily across all regions, ranging from a high of 27.6% in the Midlands to a low of 20.9% in Dublin by 2036.
The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 20.3% at a State level in 2016. There was quite a spread across the regions in 2016 with an older dependency rate of 24.0% in the Border region and 17.2% in the Mid-East region. These rates are projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The West is projected to have the highest old dependency ratio of almost 36.0%, the Dublin region is projected to have the lowest dependency ratio of 26.5% See figure 3.6
| Border | Dublin | Mid-East | Midlands | Mid-West | South-East | South-West | West | |
| 2016 | 24 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 19.9 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 23.2 |
| 2021 | 26.5 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 21.8 | 25.8 | 25 | 24.4 | 26.3 |
| 2026 | 28.8 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 23.7 | 28.6 | 27.8 | 27 | 29.3 |
| 2031 | 31.4 | 24.1 | 23.9 | 25.9 | 31.6 | 31.2 | 30 | 32.4 |
| 2036 | 34.4 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 28.4 | 34.8 | 34.9 | 33.2 | 35.9 |