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Headline Economic Results

Headline Economic Results

Decrease of 12.1% in GDP but Modified Domestic Demand up 0.6% in Quarter 1

Online ISSN: 2009-5775
CSO statistical release, , 11am
Table 1.1 GDP and GNP at constant 2023 prices, Q1 20261
 Amount €mQuarterly % change
Gross Domestic Product128,323-12.1
Gross National Product110,7001.5
Modified Final Domestic Demand73,6320.6
1Constant Market Prices, chain linked annually and referenced to year 2023, seasonally adjusted

Updated estimates for the first quarter of 2026 indicate that GDP fell by 12.1% in real terms in Q1 2026 compared to the previous quarter while GNP increased by 1.5%. Modified Domestic Demand, a broad measure of underlying domestic activity that covers personal, government and investment spending grew by 0.6% in Q1. 

GDPGNPMDD
Q1 2023-1.0501979261727-0.2764490090082067.0473067685106
Q2 2023-0.1154214061187439.56777386789645-0.896383383176325
Q3 2023-2.05184430704812-3.42561694258834-0.871498435488205
Q4 2023-3.082797392611095.223105970970642.18583958233083
Q1 20242.67328140662524-3.470835350946380.213407494630546
Q2 2024-0.5525042553882313.87010802433307-0.0935020145782395
Q3 20245.970624356795320.5929268672274721.2330612574798
Q4 20243.46898237325897-2.3408734672929-0.17294651085662
Q1 20258.76893212932011-6.743145169252752.62746094926365
Q2 2025-1.0353380266366512.70418633791310.322372585667985
Q3 2025-0.2358241672720470.01372619936232942.47983491028381
Q4 2025-4.199465909812543.418834964601691.00040463261788
Q1 2026-12.06162485483161.462122592998050.601186513133323

Get the data: NAQ03

Industry (excl. Construction)Information & Communication Professional, Admin & Support ServicesDistribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants Public Admin, Education & HealthReal Estate ActivitiesFinancial & Insurance Activities ConstructionArts, Entertainment & Other ServicesAgriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Q4 202551.56349665931.010485396314.433315130713.624168044312.16293971477.77454333197.29667351263.6121621011.39514268081.1963374083
Q1 202633.531681807530.395145853414.646199164613.647621726812.15350010567.74784259326.88785789293.65380382421.33374184921.1332893271

Get the data: NAQ02

The MNE dominated sectors of the economy contracted by 27.1% in the first quarter of 2026. The Industry (excluding Construction) sector fell by 35.0%, while the Information & Communication sector fell by 2.0% in the quarter. Overall, the non-MNE sectors expanded by 0.4%. The Professional, Administrative & Support sector grew by 1.5% while Construction increased by 1.2%. Sectors which posted contractions included Financial & Insurance Activities (-5.6%) and Arts & Entertainment (-4.4%). (See Tables 2.5 and 6.3).

Personal Consumption ExpenditureGovernment ExpenditureGross Fixed Capital FormationValue of Physical Changes in StocksNet ExportsModified Final Domestic DemandGDP
Q1 202338.39164748812.842578640730.92879965990.823717070951.732647739467.619208731133.6153878955
Q2 202338.485002947213.058519996228.87617460733.536139969747.866442577467.0130813801133.461167136
Q3 202338.038449510913.223437526727.51059605364.306194794547.828290840566.4290634243130.722751776
Q4 202338.89644522314.057969694243.38930920330.621697137926.678002897267.8810961868126.6928341927
Q1 202439.157540460613.509125091127.4922376391.091241368250.36278713668.0259595335130.0796901727
Q2 202439.442567058513.957603262611.03885278821.823186663261.904054800667.9623538909129.3609943491
Q3 202439.58521002414.038635411129.46812104781.842490871249.594710404868.8003713464137.0846533859
Q4 202440.20508188314.434270223725.49951716790.500576180260.623117066268.6813835047141.8400958483
Q1 202540.3371844614.28717343343.7764573638-4.864146095863.949994717870.4859600357154.2779575854
Q2 202540.678085948714.521094349627.79885879841.308442200269.340217692770.7131874476152.6806592238
Q3 202540.830220156214.720064185431.47462761447.003577830259.086826970972.4667577561152.3206013306
Q4 202541.167073511814.779573244630.16951437211.364165952252.761274829573.1917185578145.9239496041
Q1 202641.403880721814.846114312729.92530355335.951130126231.774882611773.6317372985128.3231502295

Get the data: NAQ03NAQ04NAQ05

On the expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3.5), Exports decreased by 7.0% in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025 while Imports increased by 4.2% which meant that overall net exports for the quarter contracted by 39.8%. Capital Investment increased by €4.3 billion during the quarter (a 13.8% increase quarter-on-quarter) with the Capital Formation element decreasing by €0.2 billion (a 0.8% decrease quarter-on-quarter) reflecting lower levels of investment in Machinery & Equipment compared with the previous quarter. Personal Consumption Expenditure grew by 0.6% in Q1 2026 compared with the previous quarter, while Government Expenditure on Current Goods and Services rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. These impacts when combined resulted in an overall decrease in Real GDP in Q1 2026 of 12.1%. Final Domestic Demand grew by 0.1% in Q1 compared with the previous quarter, while Modified Domestic Demand grew by 0.6% over the same period.

GDPNet Factor Income from Rest of WorldGNP
Q1 2023133.6153878955-42.217777722491.5122313371
Q2 2023133.461167136-33.1802927657100.2679146929
Q3 2023130.722751776-33.896749333696.8331200192
Q4 2023126.6928341927-24.6932386363101.8908164928
Q1 2024130.0796901727-31.72533615898.3543540146
Q2 2024129.3609943491-27.2002205874102.1607737616
Q3 2024137.0846533859-34.3181409489102.766512437
Q4 2024141.8400958483-41.4792174342100.3608784141
Q1 2025154.2779575854-60.684558895893.5933986895
Q2 2025152.6806592238-47.1969807647105.483678459
Q3 2025152.3206013306-46.8224439716105.498157359
Q4 2025145.9239496041-36.8189843543109.1049652498
Q1 2026128.3231502295-17.6229366327110.7002135968

Get the data: NAQ03

Factor income outflows fell by 52.1% in the quarter, a fall of €19.2 billion in money terms compared with the previous quarter, leading to an increase in GNP of 1.5%.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the Annual National Accounts. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.