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CSO statistical release, , 11am

Quarterly National Accounts

Quarter 2 2018

GDP and GNP (seasonally adjusted) at constant 2016 prices
Q2 2018
    Amount €mQuarterly % change
GDP78,2002.5
GNP59,5780.7

Real GDP up 2.5 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis

Figure 1 Seasonally Adjusted growth rates(% change on previous quarter)
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On a seasonally adjusted basis, initial estimates indicate that GDP in volume terms increased by 2.5 per cent for the second quarter of 2018. Real GNP increased by 0.7 per cent over the same period.

Value added increases for Information & Communication, Industry, Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants and Construction, decline in Agriculture

Value added of Information & Communication rose by 11.9 per cent in volume terms in Q2 2018 compared with the previous quarter. Industry (excluding Construction) recorded a 5.3 per cent increase in real terms with Construction activities recording a 3.2 per cent increase, (see Table 5). Distribution, Transport, Hotels and Restaurants increased by 3.9 per cent over the same period while Professional and Admin Services increased by 3.7 per cent.  Agriculture recorded a decline of 3.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter with Public Administration, Education and Health recording a moderate decline of 1.1 per cent over the period.

Net Exports and Personal Consumption increase, Capital Investment declines

On the expenditure side of the accounts (see Table 7), Exports increased by 5.9 per cent in Q2 2018 compared with Q1 2018. Combining the export increase with an offsetting import increase of 0.3 per cent, overall net exports for the quarter increased by €5.2 bn.  Personal consumption, which accounted for 51.7 per cent of domestic demand in Q2 2018, increased by 1.5 per cent compared with the previous quarter. Government expenditure increased by 1.3 per cent in Q2 2018 compared with Q1 2018 while Capital formation showed a decrease of 1.4 per cent over the same period.

Total domestic demand decreased by 1.6 per cent in Q2 2018 over Q1 2018. When combined with the €5.2 bn increase in net exports the result was an overall increase in real GDP in Q2 2018 of 2.5 per cent. With Factor Income outflows little changed in Q2 2018 (€15,342m) compared with Q1 2018, GNP exhibited an overall increase of 0.7 per cent in the period. Modified Domestic Demand, an indicator of domestic demand that excludes the impact of trade in aircraft by aircraft leasing companies and trade in R&D and intellectual property, increased by 0.4 per cent in Q2 2018 over Q1 2018.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the annual National Income and Expenditure. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.

Comparisons with Q2 2017

Initial estimates for the second quarter of 2018 indicate that there was an increase of 9.0 per cent in GDP in real terms in Q2 2018 compared with Q2 2017. Information & communication made the most positive contribution to the Q2 result, rising by 37.4 per cent with Construction recording an increase of 11.5 per cent. Increases were also recorded in Distribution, Transport, Hotels and Restaurants (7.6 per cent), Industry (excluding Construction) (6.3 per cent), Financial and Insurance activities (5.4 per cent) and Public Administration, Education and Health (3.5 per cent). Agriculture activities showed a decline of 8.3 per cent year-on-year while Arts & Entertainment declined by 6.6 per cent compared with Q2 2017.

On the expenditure side there was an increase in net exports of €13,725m during the quarter. Personal consumption expenditure exhibited a year-on-year increase of 4.4 per cent while capital investment declined by 32.0 per cent in Q2 2018 compared with Q2 2017. Modified Domestic Demand increased by 4.2 per cent in Q2 2018 compared with Q2 2017.

Factor income outflows were €134m lower than in the same quarter of 2017 resulting in an increase in GNP of 11.9 per cent year-on-year.