Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics September 2022

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) subindices were combined with detailed expenditure data from the 2015/16 Household Budget Survey (HBS) to calculate an estimated inflation rate in the five years from September 2017 to September 2022, for the following groups:

• Households grouped by equivalised gross household income (deciles)
• Households grouped by type of tenure
• Urban and rural households
• Households grouped by the age of the household reference person
• Households grouped by composition

The method used is described in the Appendix.

The following household groups were estimated to have experienced higher inflation than the overall CPI increase of 12.9% from September 2017 to September 2022 (five years):

• Households with lower gross household income
• Households that rent their home
• Households where the household reference person is aged under 35
• Households where the household reference person is aged 65 or over
• Households of one adult (with or without children)
• Households comprising two adults (without children)

In the past year, from September 2021 to September 2022, the following categories of household were estimated to have experienced higher inflation than the overall CPI increase of 8.2%:

• Households with lower gross household income
• Households that are owned outright
• Households that rent their home
• Rural households
• Households where the household reference person is aged 65 or over
• Households of one adult (with or without children)
• Households comprising two adults (without children)

Figure 2.1 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 12.9% for different household groups for the five years from September 2017 to September 2022. All of the household categories in the analysis had estimated inflation of 11.5% or more in the five years from September 2017 to September 2022. This ranged from 11.5% for Other households with children (households containing two adults with more than three children, or households containing three or more adults with children) to 15.6% for households containing one adult with children.

Five-year inflation estimated for households in the lowest income decile was 2.1 percentage points higher than the CPI average, at 15.0%. The estimated inflation for households in the highest income decile over the same five years was 11.6%.

Figure 2.2 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 8.2% for different household groups in the twelve months from September 2021 to September 2022. All categories of household in the analysis had estimated annual inflation of 7.5% or more in the year to September 2022. This ranged from 7.5% for households in the highest income decile up to 9.5% for households in the second lowest income decile.