Press Statement

Preasráiteas

18 November 2022

Go to release: Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics September 2022

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (18 November 2022) published an update for September 2022 to its research papers on inflation broken down by various household characteristics. This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care should be taken when interpreting the statistics in this research paper as it is based on methodology which continues to be under development. The methods used and the conclusions from the analysis may be subject to further review and refinement.

About the Research Paper

Commenting on the information presented in this CSO Frontier Series research paper, Joseph Keating, Statistician in the Prices Division, said: “The increasing rate of inflation since the middle of 2021 has prompted greater interest in price change and its effects on households. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of average inflation for all households.

However, each household has its own unique consumption pattern of goods and services and therefore its own personal experience of inflation. This latest research paper published by the CSO today attempts to take account of those differences between households and provides an estimated breakdown of the CPI results by household characteristics up to September 2022. This has been calculated by combining the CPI results with more detailed expenditure data from the 2015/16 Household Budget Survey.

The report presents estimates of inflation classified by household income, composition of the household, housing tenure, age of the household reference person, and whether the household is in an urban or rural setting.”

The Results

Commenting on the research paper’s results for estimated inflation over 12 months, Joseph Keating continued: “The official measure of inflation as published in the CPI shows that prices for consumer goods and services increased by 8.2% from September 2021 to September 2022. Over the same period, the estimated annual inflation by household income categories showed a range from 7.5% for the top decile of households by income, to 9.0% or more per annum for households in the three lowest income deciles.

In the 12 months to September 2022, household groups which were estimated to have experienced inflation at a higher rate than the official measure of inflation of 8.2% included: Lower income households, with estimated rates of inflation of up to 9.5%; Households that rent their home from a local authority (9.1%); Households renting privately (8.3%); Households where the dwelling is owned outright (8.4%); and Rural households (8.7%).”

Commenting on contributions to inflation, Joseph Keating added: “The cost of energy was one of the major drivers of inflation in the 12 months to September 2022. Price changes for Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels were responsible for more than a quarter of the 8.2% annual change in the CPI (2.2 percentage points of the 8.2% increase) while Transport related increases contributed almost another fifth of the change (1.5 percentage points).”

Some key findings from the research paper show that: 

• For households in the lowest decile (the lowest 10% by income): Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels was the largest contributor to their estimated inflation rate (2.9 percentage points of 9.0%). This was followed by Rent (1.8 percentage points) and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (1.4 percentage points). 
• For households in the top income decile: Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, Transport, and Restaurants & Hotels were the three joint largest contributors to their estimated inflation (each contributed 1.6 percentage points of 7.5%).
• For households renting from a local authority: Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels was the largest contributor to their annual inflation (2.8 percentage points of 9.1%), followed by Rent (1.9 percentage points) and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (1.4 percentage points).
• For households renting privately: Rent made the largest contribution to their annual inflation (3.0 percentage points of 8.3%), followed by Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (1.7 percentage points) and Restaurants & Hotels (1.0 percentage points).
• For rural households: Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels contributed 2.5 percentage points to their annual estimated inflation of 8.7%, while Transport contributed 2.2 percentage points.
• For urban households: Annual estimated inflation for urban households was 8.1%, with Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels contributing 2.0 percentage points.
• Where the household reference person was aged under 35, annual inflation was estimated at 8.0%. The main contributors were Rent (2.2 percentage points), and Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (1.6 percentage points).
• The main contributors to the estimated inflation for households where the reference person was aged 65 or over were: Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (3.3 percentage points out of the total of 9.0%), Transport (1.6 percentage points), and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (1.5 percentage points). Rent contributed just 0.2 percentage points to annual inflation for this household age category.

September 2017 to September 2022

Further commenting on the research paper’s results over five years, Joseph Keating continued: “Price changes for the different household groups for the five years from September 2017 to September 2022 were also published today. Over that period, overall inflation as measured by the CPI was 12.9%. The lowest income decile experienced an estimated price increase of 15.0% over those five years; the highest income decile had an estimated increase of 11.6%.

Rural and Urban households experienced the same estimated inflation rate as the CPI over the five years to September 2022 (all 12.9%). However, inflation estimated for rural households was higher than the CPI over the last 12 months, September 2021 to September 2022, at 8.7% versus 8.2%.

In the five years since September 2017, the estimated inflation experienced by households with the reference person aged 65 or over was higher than the overall CPI (13.4% versus 12.9%). In the 12 months to September 2022, these households also had higher estimated inflation than the CPI (9.0% versus 8.2%).

Households where the household reference person was aged under 35 also had higher estimated inflation than the average CPI since September 2017 (14.0% versus 12.9%) but had lower estimated inflation than the CPI since September 2021 (8.0% versus 8.2%).” 

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