These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by the CSO.
For further information please refer to the Under Reservation FAQ page.
Reoffending rates by individuals in the 2015 Probation Cohort are analysed in this chapter. Table 4.1 provides an analysis by age, gender, probation type and referral offence. The overall rate of reoffending by the group is 29.5%. This means that 29.5% of individuals received a further conviction for a crime recorded within 12 months of the date of their Probation, Community Service or Post Release Supervision Order.
Males were slightly more likely to reoffend than females with 29.7% of them doing so versus 28.5% of females. This differential has dropped substantially compared to earlier cohorts of released probationers.
Age has a considerable impact on reoffending levels. More than 6 in 10 (61.5%) of those people aged under 18 reoffend within 12 months of the date of their order. The corresponding rates for those aged over 45 and those aged over 65 are 21.4% and 19.0% respectively. See Fig 4.1.
Individuals subject to a Probation Order are twice as likely to reoffend as those subject to a Post Release Supervision Order. Almost one in three (32.7%) do so compared with 16.4% of those under Post Release Supervision.
| Age group | Reoffending rate |
|---|---|
| <18 | 61.5 |
| 18-24 | 35.5 |
| 25-44 | 26.9 |
| 45-64 | 21.4 |
| 65 + | 19 |
The data shows that those sentenced in relation to kidnapping offences were most likely to reoffend (44.4%). However due to the very small numbers involved it is necessary to regard this rate with a high degree of caution. In excess of four in ten (41.1%) of individuals who were subject to a Probation Order arising from a burglary offence reoffended within one year of the date of the order. The lowest level of reoffending was by those sentenced in relation to sexual offences at 1.7%. See Fig 4.2.
| Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences | Kidnapping and related offences | Burglary and related offences | Dangerous or negligent acts | Theft and related offences | Controlled drug offences | Public order and other social code offences | Road and traffic offences | Sexual offences | |
| Probation referral offence | 20.1 | 44.4 | 41.1 | 19.7 | 39.3 | 21.5 | 38.6 | 20.3 | 1.7 |
Table 4.2 gives a breakdown of reoffenders by the time period to their first reoffence. It shows that 64.9% of all reoffenders who reoffend within the first year do so in the first six months from when their probation began. The remaining 35.1% do so within six to twelve months after the order date. See Fig 4.3.
| 2015 | |
| < 6 months | 64.9 |
| 6 < 12 months | 35.1 |
It is noteworthy that a higher proportion of females aged under 25 years and over 45 years reoffend within 6 months than their male counterparts. The data shows that 78.3% and 66.7% of females aged under 25 and over 45 who reoffended did so within 6 months. The corresponding figures for males in these age groups were 68.1% and 59.2% respectively. But it is important to note that the number of female reoffenders are lower compared to male reoffenders (181 females as opposed to 1,069 males). See Fig 4.4.
Future publications will provide data on reoffending rates in the 12 to 36 month period after the order.
| < 6 months | 6-12 months | |
| Male aged <25 | 68.1 | 31.9 |
| Female aged <25 | 78.3 | 21.7 |
| Male aged 25-44 | 62.2 | 37.8 |
| Female aged 25-44 | 61.7 | 38.3 |
| Male aged 45+ | 59.2 | 40.8 |
| Female aged 45+ | 66.7 | 33.3 |
Go to next chapter: 2014 Results
Learn about our data and confidentiality safeguards, and the steps we take to produce statistics that can be trusted by all.