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Probation Re-offending Statistics 2013, 2014 and 2015 Cohorts

2013 Results

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The rate of reoffending within three years, by those sentenced to probation in 2013, was 45.3%

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Reoffending rates by individuals in the 2013 Probation Cohort are analysed in this chapter. Table 6.1 provides an analysis of rates by age, gender, probation type and referral offence. The data shows that 45.3% of people in the group committed a crime for which they were subsequently convicted within 3 years of the date of their Probation, Community Service or Post Release Supervision Order.

Table 6.1 Offender numbers classified by sex, age group, probation type, probation referral offence and whether there was a reoffence within three years, 2013 cohort

Table 6.1 Offender numbers classified by sex, age group, probation type, probation referral offence and whether there was a reoffence within three years, 2013 cohort
	Reoffence within three years			Reoffending¹ rate
	Yes	No	Total	%
Total offenders	2,074	2,508	4,582	45.3

Sex
Male	1,837	2,167	4,004	45.9
Female	237	341	578	41.0

Male age group
<18	103	37	140	73.6
18-24	806	641	1,447	55.7
25-44	838	1,252	2,090	40.1
45+	90	237	327	27.5

Female age group
<18	9	7	16	56.3
18-24	86	95	181	47.5
25-44	125	198	323	38.7
45+	17	41	58	29.3

All persons age group
<18	112	44	156	71.8
18-24	892	736	1,628	54.8
25-44	963	1,450	2,413	39.9
45-64	103	264	367	28.1
65 +	4	14	18	22.2

Probation type
Community Service	963	1,350	2,313	41.6
Post Release Supervision Order	91	122	213	42.7
Probation Order	1,020	1,036	2,056	49.6

Probation referral offence
01 Homicide and related offences	3	10	13	23.1
02 Sexual offences	4	69	73	5.5
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	233	315	548	42.5
04 Dangerous or negligent acts	93	164	257	36.2
05 Kidnapping and related offences	3	5	8	37.5
06 Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences	81	75	156	51.9
07 Burglary and related offences	197	162	359	54.9
08 Theft and related offences	500	414	914	54.7
09 Fraud, deception and related offences	18	50	68	26.5
10 Controlled drug offences	257	458	715	35.9
11 Weapons and explosives offences	69	68	137	50.4
12 Damage to property and to the environment	113	113	226	50.0
13 Public order and other social code offences	349	327	676	51.6
14 Road and traffic offences	93	206	299	31.1
15 Offences against Government, justice procedures and organisation of crime	44	40	84	52.4
16 Offences not elsewhere classified or not stated²	17	32	49	34.7
¹ See background notes
² Due to the small number of individuals in some sub-groups, in some instances it was necessary to combine groups in order to adhere to CSO confidentiality policy

Open in Excel: Probation Reoffending Statistics 2013, 2014, 2015 Cohorts Table 6.1 (XLS 12KB)

Males were more likely to reoffend than females with 45.9% doing so compared to 41% of females. This differential has decreased over time. It is higher than that for the 2015 cohort but lower than that for cohorts analysed in previous publications with the gender gap exceeding 13 percentage points for the 2009 and 2010 cohorts.

As was the case with the 2014 and 2015 cohorts there is a noteworthy difference in the reoffending rates for different age groups. Those aged under 18 were two and half times more likely to reoffend that those aged between 45 and 64 and over three times more likely to reoffend than those aged over 65. The respective rates are 71.8%, 28.1% and 22.2%.

Age group	Reoffending rate
<18	71.8
18-24	54.8
25-44	39.9
45-64	28.1
65 +	22.2

The rate of reoffending also varies significantly depending on the referral offence. The reoffending rate exceeded 50% for six of the sixteen offence types with Burglary and Related offences showing the highest rate at 54.9%. The lowest rate of reoffending was by people sentenced for Sexual offences (5.5%). See Fig 6.2.

	Sexual offences	Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	Burglary and related offences	Dangerous or negligent acts	Theft and related offences	Controlled drug offences	Public order and other social code offences	Road and traffic offences
Probation referral offence	6.2	42.5	54.9	36.2	54.7	35.9	51.6	31.1

Almost 61% of people who reoffend do so within one year of the date of their order

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Table 6.2 gives a breakdown of the time period to the first reoffence for all reoffenders. A total of 60.8% of people who reoffend do so within one year of the date of their order (41% in the first six months and 19.8% within 6-12 months). See Fig 6.3.

Table 6.2 Reoffender numbers classified by time period to first reoffence, sex, age group and probation type, 2013 cohort

	2013
< 6 months	41
6 < 12 months	19.8
12 < 18 months	12.8
18 < 24 months	10.8
24 < 30 months	8.8
30 < 36 months	6.8

Those aged under 18 are more likely to reoffend quickly with almost half (49.1%) of first reoffences for this group taking place within 6 months of their order date. Individuals subject to a Post Release Supervision Order were less likely to reoffend quickly than those serving a Probation or Community Service Order. Only 22% reoffended within 6 months compared to 45.7% and 37.8% respectively.

Public Order offences are the most common first reoffence

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Table 6.3 provides a breakdown of the offences committed by reoffenders, broken down by their referral offence for the 2013 cohort. In many instances the numbers are very low. These instances are marked with an asterisk to avoid the identification of individuals. The table relates to the first offence committed by the reoffender after being sentenced to a Probation, Post Release Supervision or Community Service Order.

The analysis indicates that in the case of Theft, Drug and Public Order offences the first reoffence committed by reoffenders is more likely to be the same as the one for which they were sentenced in the first instance. Of those sentenced for Theft offences, 207 (41.4%) individuals were subsequently convicted of another Theft offence with 103 (20.6%) of the remainder convicted of Public Order offences.

With regard to Public Order offences, 49.6% (173) of individuals originally sentenced for these crimes received a subsequent conviction for the same offence type. Public Order offences are also the most common first reoffence of individuals sentenced in relation to Assaults (37.8%), Burglary (28.4%) and Damage to Property (38.9%) offences.

Table 6.3 Reoffender numbers classified by probation referral offence and subsequent reoffence, 2013 cohort

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Table 6.2 Reoffender numbers classified by time period to first reoffence, sex, age group and probation type, 2013 cohort
	Time period to first reoffence
	<6 months		6<12		12<18		18<24		24<30		30<36		Total
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Total reoffenders	850	41.0	411	19.8	266	12.8	223	10.8	183	8.8	141	6.8	2,074	100.0

Sex
Male	755	41.1	369	20.1	228	12.4	196	10.7	158	8.6	131	7.1	1,837	100.0
Female	95	40.1	42	17.7	38	16.0	27	11.4	25	10.5	10	4.2	237	100.0

Male age group
<18 years	54	52.4	20	19.4	16	15.5	8	7.8	2	1.9	3	2.9	103	100.0
18-24	357	44.3	167	20.7	89	11.0	79	9.8	55	6.8	59	7.3	806	100.0
25-44	306	36.5	168	20.0	111	13.2	97	11.6	92	11.0	64	7.6	838	100.0
45+	38	42.2	14	15.6	12	13.3	12	13.3	9	10.0	5	5.6	90	100.0

Female age group
<25 years	37	38.9	20	21.1	12	12.6	13	13.7	9	9.5	4	4.2	95	100.0
25-44	50	40.0	18	14.4	25	20.0	12	9.6	14	11.2	6	4.8	125	100.0
45+	8	47.1	4	23.5	1	5.9	2	11.8	2	11.8	0	0.0	17	100.0

All persons age group
<18 years	55	49.1	23	20.5	16	14.3	10	8.9	4	3.6	4	3.6	112	100.0
18-24	393	44.1	184	20.6	101	11.3	90	10.1	62	7.0	62	7.0	892	100.0
25-44	356	37.0	186	19.3	136	14.1	109	11.3	106	11.0	70	7.3	963	100.0
45+	46	43.0	18	16.8	13	12.1	14	13.1	11	10.3	5	4.7	107	100.0

Probation type
Community Service	364	37.8	205	21.3	119	12.4	124	12.9	80	8.3	71	7.4	963	100.0
Post Release Supervision Order	20	22.0	16	17.6	10	11.0	16	17.6	16	17.6	13	14.3	91	100.0
Probation Order	466	45.7	190	18.6	137	13.4	83	8.1	87	8.5	57	5.6	1,020	100.0

Probation Re-offending Statistics 2013, 2014 and 2015 Cohorts

2013 Results

Statistics Under Reservation

The rate of reoffending within three years, by those sentenced to probation in 2013, was 45.3%

Almost 61% of people who reoffend do so within one year of the date of their order

Public Order offences are the most common first reoffence

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Table 6.3 Reoffender numbers classified by probation referral offence and subsequent reoffence, 2013 cohort
	Subsequent reoffence¹
	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	15	Total
Total reoffenders	2	1	93	162	3	17	115	449	34	334	65	91	625	83	2,074

Probation referral offence
01 Homicide offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	3
02 Sexual offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	4
03 Attempts/Threats to murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	*	*	29	16	*	3	12	33	*	28	8	8	88	6	233
04 Dangerous or negligent acts	*	*	6	16	*	2	3	15	*	21	*	2	24	3	93
05 Kidnapping and related offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	2	*	3
06 Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences	*	*	5	4	*	2	2	21	*	14	5	*	21	5	81
07 Burglary and related offences	*	*	7	10	*	*	27	40	3	26	5	12	56	10	197
08 Theft and related offences	*	*	7	32	*	*	22	207	14	51	12	30	103	18	500
09 Fraud, deception and related offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	6	2	3	*	*	4	*	18
10 Controlled drug offences	*	*	9	27	*	2	12	22	3	110	8	5	53	5	257
11 Weapons and explosives offences	*	*	*	2	*	*	5	13	*	13	8	3	17	5	69
12 Damage to property and to the environment	*	*	8	8	*	*	9	18	*	13	5	6	44	*	113
13 Public order and other social code offences	*	*	11	30	*	3	9	39	5	31	7	21	173	18	349
14 Road and traffic offences (NEC)	*	*	6	12	*	*	7	16	*	20	3	2	22	3	93
15 Offences against Government, justice procedures and organisation of crime	*	*	*	2	*	*	4	14	*	*	2	*	12	7	44
16 Offences not elsewhere classified or not stated	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	3	2	3	*	*	4	*	17
¹ Please see probation referral offence column for description of offence type.
Note: Please be advised that * is used when the figure is zero or the figure cannot be published because of confidentiality reasons.