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Reoffending rates by individuals in the 2014 Probation Cohort are analysed in this chapter. Table 5.1 provides an analysis of rates by age, gender, probation type and referral offence. The data shows that 39.8% of people in the group committed a crime for which they were subsequently convicted within 2 years of the date of their Probation, Community Service or Post Release Supervision Order.
Males aged under 18 were more likely to reoffend than males in any other age group. The data shows that 3 out of every 4 in this subgroup reoffended within two years of the date their probation began. By comparison just over one in four (26%) of those aged over 45 committed another offence within two years.
Younger females were also more likely to reoffend than their older counterparts but the differential is less stark than that for males. The analysis indicates that 58.3% of females aged under 18 reoffended within two years compared to 20.4% of those aged over 45. Caution is necessary when interpreting this data due to the very small number of females under 18 in the Probation system.
The reoffending rate of those on Post Release Supervision Orders (29.3%) is lower than that of offenders placed on Probation or Community Service Orders. The reoffending rates associated with the latter two orders are 44.4% and 37% respectively.
| Age group | Reoffending rate |
|---|---|
| <18 | 73.8 |
| 18-24 | 50.3 |
| 25-44 | 33.1 |
| 45-64 | 25.3 |
| 65 + | 25 |
The highest level of reoffending is by individuals whose referral offence was for Burglary (55%). In contrast less than 1 in 10 (9.9%) of individuals who receive a sentence for Sexual Offences reoffend within two years of the date of their order. See Fig 5.2.
| Sexual offences | Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences | Burglary and related offences | Dangerous or negligent acts | Theft and related offences | Controlled drug offences | Public order and other social code offences | Road and traffic offences | |
| Probation referral offence | 9.9 | 33.7 | 55 | 30.9 | 51.1 | 28.6 | 46.4 | 28.6 |
Table 5.2 provides an analysis of the time period to first reoffence for all reoffenders. The data shows that of the 1,849 individuals who reoffended within two years of their order, 856 (46.0%) did so in the first six months. There is little variation by age or gender in the proportion of offenders that fall into each 6 month period.
Probation type impacts on the distribution of reoffenders across the two years. This distribution is heavily skewed towards the earlier periods for those on Probation and Community Service Orders compared to those on Post Release Supervision Orders. The percentage of those on Post Release Supervision Orders (23.5%) who reoffended in the first six month period was approximately half of those on Probation (47.9%) and Community Service Orders (46%).
Future publications will provide data on reoffending rates in the 24 to 36 month period after the order.
| 2014 | |
| < 6 months | 46 |
| 6 < 12 months | 23.9 |
| 12 < 18 months | 17 |
| 18 < 24 months | 13.2 |
Go to next chapter: 2013 Results
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