Probation Re-offending Statistics 2013, 2014 and 2015 Cohorts

The Probation Reoffending Statistics publication provides information on the level of recorded reoffending by offenders placed under the management of the Probation Service. The information in this publication relates to individuals who entered the Probation Service in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

The reoffending rate is the percentage of people who were convicted of a crime incident that was recorded within one to three years of the date of their sentencing. The conviction must be obtained within two years of the date the crime was recorded. For example, if an offender was sentenced to probation on December 31st, 2013 and they committed an offence on December 31st, 2016 for which a conviction was obtained on or before December 31st, 2018 they would be included as a reoffender.

This publication supersedes the Probation Recidivism Statistics Publication. The range of data published has been expanded to meet the information needs of customers. There are three major expansions:

• The reoffending behaviour of individuals is considered over one-year (2015 cohort), two-year (2014 cohort) and three-year (2013 cohort) windows. This approach makes it possible to analyse the behaviour of more recent cohorts, thus facilitating the provision of more timely data.
• The publication includes data on Post Release Supervision Orders. A Court imposing a custodial sentence on a person convicted of a scheduled sexual offence (schedule of the Sex Offenders Act 2001) is obliged to consider a sentence involving post-release supervision by the Probation Service. In addition, a Post Release Supervision Order may form part of the conditions imposed by the Court when suspending a prison sentence.
• A geographical breakdown of reoffending rates by county and by regional authority is provided. Offenders are classified based on their address data in the Probation Service dataset.

• Around 3 in 10 offenders managed by the Probation Service re-offend within one-year and 4 in 10 re-offend within two years.
• In the most recent cohort for which a three-year reoffending rate is available, 2013, 45.3% of individuals committed at least one additional crime for which they received a conviction. See table 6.1.
• Reoffending rates are decreasing over time, with 28% of 2013 probationers reoffending within one year, compared to almost 36% of 2008 probationers who reoffend in one year. See table 1.1.
• Males are more likely to reoffend than females with 29.7% doing so within one year in the 2015 cohort compared to 28.5% of females (see table 4.1). The gap between males and females has decreased significantly over time as data from this previous publication will demonstrate.
• Males are more likely to reoffend than females with 29.7% doing so within one year in the 2015 cohort compared to 28.5% of females. The gap between males and females has decreased significantly over time as data from this previous publication will demonstrate:Revised Back Series
• There is an inverse relationship between age and reoffending rates. Persons under 18 are more than three times more likely to reoffend than those aged over 65. The percentage of individuals who reoffend within one year, for those under 18 and over 65 were 61.5% and 19.0% respectively in the 2015 cohort. See Table 4.1.
• Data from the 2015 cohort indicates that the level of reoffending is higher among individuals sentenced to a Probation Order (32.7%) than those sentenced to a Community Service Order (28.0%) or those under Post Release Supervision (16.4%). See Table 4.1.
• There is considerable geographical variation in the level of reoffending. Table 3.1 indicates that 16.7% of individuals with a County Mayo address reoffend within one year compared to almost half (49.1%) of individuals with an address in Westmeath.
• Data from all three cohorts indicates that individuals referred to Probation following a burglary conviction are more likely to reoffend than those referred for any other offence type. Those sentenced following conviction for sexual offences are least likely to reoffend. See tables 4.1, 5.1 & 6.1.

Chapter 2 of this publication, FAQ, provides explanations of the key concepts of the release. Chapter 3 provides an analysis of reoffending rates by county and regional authority area. Chapters 4, 5 & 6 analyse the reoffending patterns of the 2015, 2014 & 2013 cohorts respectively. Finally, Chapter 8, Background Notes, provides technical explanations and a table of the incident classifications used in the publication.