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Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 3 2023

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 1.8% in Quarter 3 2023

CSO statistical publication, , 11am
A CSO Frontier Series Output

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen by an estimated 1.8% in Quarter 3 (Q3) 2023, when compared with Q2 2023.

  • The result was driven mainly by decreases in the multinational dominated sectors in Q3 2023.

  • Using the early estimate for Q3 2023, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 4.7% when compared with the same quarter in 2022.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (27 October 2023) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 3 (Q3) 2023. This is a Frontier Series publication and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA), which will be published with results for Q3 2023 in early December when additional data sources are available to the CSO and will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2023.

Commenting on the release, Brian King, Senior Statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said: “In today’s release, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 1.8% in Q3 2023 in volume terms when compared with Q2 2023, driven by decreases in the multinational dominated sectors (the Industry and Information & Communication sectors) in Q3 2023. GDP is estimated to have decreased by 4.7% when compared with the same quarter of 2022.

These preliminary estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts (QNA). The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data and other indicators of activity (see Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results).” 

Tables and Graphs

Qtr on Qtr
Q1 20203.4051520437838
Q2 2020-5.6060622406879
Q3 202011.914818348668
Q4 2020-4.81680723083616
Q1 202111.4919942014258
Q2 20212.48742552849408
Q3 20212.55343814714735
Q4 2021-2.53695167601039
Q1 20226.8215395322216
Q2 20222.17917427357011
Q3 20222.36320250564299
Q4 2022-0.861391496056352
Q1 2023-2.63007357786683
Q2 20230.46427551450432
Q3 2023-1.75917056373597
Year on Year
Q1 20208.34480477741131
Q2 20201.97893730279173
Q3 202011.349108883638
Q4 20204.64380098089081
Q1 202112.7635241351386
Q2 202121.7238568789867
Q3 202112.3819321089571
Q4 202114.294399663713
Q1 20228.7842467849865
Q2 20229.2951712208386
Q3 20229.36689322582949
Q4 202210.2380172137519
Q1 20231.11024462684903
Q2 2023-0.67099866058018
Q3 2023-4.65779990231069
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Seasonally Adjusted

Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted