Back to Top

 Skip navigation

Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 1 2026

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product decreased by 2.0% in Quarter 1 2026

CSO statistical release, , 11am
A CSO Frontier Series Output

This release is categorised as a CSO Fronter Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by an estimated 2.0% in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2026, when compared with Q4 2025.

  • The result was driven mainly by a fall in the multinational dominated sector of Industry in Q1 2026.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 April 2026) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 1 (Q1) 2026. This release is a CSO Frontier Series output and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) Q1 2026 release, which will be published in early June 2026 when additional data sources are available to the CSO. The results will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2025.

Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Integration Division, said: "In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have contracted by 2.0% in January, February, and March (Q1) 2026 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2025. This was driven by a decrease in the multinational dominated sector of Industry in Q1 2026.  

These preliminary estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data, and other indicators of activity. Please see the Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results."

Quarter-on-quarter percentage change

The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted decrease of 2.0% in Q1 2026 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2025.

Qtr on Qtr
Q1 20224.1256
Q2 20222.2957
Q3 20222.0568
Q4 2022-1.2505
Q1 2023-1.6606
Q2 20230.1224
Q3 2023-1.8599
Q4 2023-2.8682
Q1 20241.7766
Q2 2024-0.2511
Q3 20246.2459
Q4 20243.778
Q1 20257.6694
Q2 2025-0.5533
Q3 20250.0183
Q4 2025-3.8311
Q1 2026-2.0137
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2023) - Seasonally Adjusted

Year-on-year percentage change

Year on Year
Q1 20227.39
Q2 20227.5971
Q3 20227.2747
Q4 20227.7874
Q1 20232.4413
Q2 2023-0.8314
Q3 2023-4.7046
Q4 2023-6.5679
Q1 2024-2.6829
Q2 2024-2.3462
Q3 20243.9979
Q4 202411.5642
Q1 202520.1137
Q2 202517.208
Q3 202511.2052
Q4 20252.1755
Q1 2026-6.003
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2023) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted

Why you can Trust the CSO

Learn about our data and confidentiality safeguards, and the steps we take to produce statistics that can be trusted by all.