Ireland and Northern Ireland - A Regional Economic Comparison 2023 - 2024

The Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor (DBEC) is an economic region wherein cross-border trade between the United Kingdom and Ireland takes place. DBEC includes Dublin, Fingal, Louth, Meath, Lisburn & Castlereagh, Newry, Mourne & Down, Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon and Belfast.

Figure 4.1 shows that disposable income per capita increased for all regions within the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor (DBEC) between 2011 and 2023. There was a trough in disposable income per person in 2014 in Dublin, and disposable income per capita in this county remained below that of Lisburn & Castlereagh until 2016. Thereafter, Dublin had the highest disposable income per capita, followed by Lisburn & Castlereagh and Louth. The remaining regions were generally similar. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon, Louth and Newry, Mourne & Down recorded slight increases in disposable income per person in 2020. Disposable income per person also increased at a steeper rate after 2020 for most regions.

Figure 4.2 shows a time-series of median annual earnings in PPS by year for the DBEC regions. The median annual earnings have been converted from euro and pound sterling into PPS using the final consumption expenditure of household as the PPP category. As mentioned previously, the earnings data in Ireland are obtained from administrative sources, namely the Revenue Commissioner's PAYE system. Northern Ireland bases its figures on the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Methodologies between these two sources differ significantly.  

Median earnings were generally higher among the regions in Ireland than in Northern Ireland. Of the regions of the corridor in Northern Ireland, Belfast, at 29,523.9 PPS, in 2024, generally had the highest annual median earnings, while Newry, Mourne & Down, at 23,996.1 PPS, had the lowest. Median annual earnings increased in all regions between 2018 and 2024. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon and Lisburn & Castlereagh tracked each other closely. Median annual earnings also increased in all regions in 2020; however, this increase was more modest in Belfast than the other parts of the corridor. The gap in median earnings between Louth and Belfast closed between 2021 and 2023, despite Louth overtaking Belfast in 2024. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon and Newry, Mourne & Down also both recorded troughs of 21,034 PPS and 19,044.8 PPS respectively in 2021.

Figure 4.3 shows that median house prices were much higher in the DBEC regions in Ireland than those in Northern Ireland. Median house prices were consistently highest in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, and prices in this region were considerably above prices in Dublin City, South Dublin and Fingal, which were more similar during this period. Median house prices were initially comparable in Meath and Lisburn & Castlereagh, though they diverge significantly after 2015, when prices in Meath increase significantly while those in Lisburn & Castlereagh were comparatively flatter. In 2014, median house prices in Louth were also among the lowest in the corridor, however they rose to being the sixth highest in 2018 and remaining in this position thereafter. The regions in Northern Ireland had comparatively similar trends. Among these regions, Belfast had the lowest median house prices, and the lowest in the corridor as a whole.

Figure 4.4 shows a time-series of the ratio of median house prices to median gross annual earnings (in PPS) for full-time employees in the DBEC regions. The ratio acts as a metric of affordability by expressing median house prices as a multiple of median annual salary. In 2014, median house prices in Dublin were just under 10 times the annual median salary, however by 2024 they grew to just over 13 times the annual median salary. By 2023, Dublin, Meath and Louth recorded the highest ratios, with the ratio rising significantly in each of these regions since 2014. Louth saw the most significant increase in the ratio during the period. In 2014, median house prices were just over 5 times the median annual salary in this county. By 2024, prices rose to just under 11 times the median salary. In Northern Ireland, the ratio of median house prices to median annual earnings stayed relatively consistent over time, indicating that earnings rose in line with house prices. In 2024, median house prices in Belfast were 6.5 times the annual median salary and have remained relatively stable over the past decade when compared against the growth observed in the Irish regions. Lisburn & Castlereagh initially had the highest ratio in the corridor before falling to the third highest until 2023, when it was overtaken by Louth. Belfast was also considerably below the other regions during the period.

Figure 4.5 shows that GVA in current basic prices per capita increased for all regions from 2001 to 2022. In 2022, this metric was highest in Dublin (130,153.11 PPS), followed by Belfast (462,76.00 PPS), the Mid-East region (407,34.97 PPS), Lisburn & Castlereagh (25,018.48 PPS) and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon (20,758.66 PPS) and Newry, Mourne & Down (19,506.12 PPS). GVA in current basic prices per capita declined in Dublin and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon in 2008, with the Belfast, the Mid-East region and Newry, Mourne & Down recording slight increases. GVA in current basic prices per person also began to increase at a faster rate in the Mid-East after 2014, before slowing in 2019. This was the only region to record a decline in 2023. Apart from Dublin, GVA in current basic prices per capita declined in all regions in 2020, and this decline was most pronounced in Lisburn & Castlereagh. 

Figure 4.6 shows the percentage change in GVA at basic prices per capita in 2022. The regions in Ireland recorded higher year-on-year growth rates than those in Northern Ireland. The Mid-East had the highest growth rate, followed by Dublin, Lisburn & Castlereagh, Belfast, Newry, Mourne & Down and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon. 

High-productivity sectors, such as the Information & Communication sector, account for a higher share of GVA in Dublin and the Mid-East. In 2023, this sector made up 38.9% of the total GVA in Dublin, the highest share for this sector within the corridor. The GVA share of Public Administration, Education & Health was higher among the regions in Northern Ireland. Lisburn & Castlereagh recorded the highest GVA share of this sector at 30.3% and Belfast and Ards & North Down both recorded 25.9%. By comparison, the Public Administration, Education & Health sector was 7.5% and 15.5% of GVA in Dublin and the Mid-East respectively, the lowest shares across the corridor. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon, which had among the lowest GVA and disposable income per person within the corridor, also saw a higher share of its GVA come from Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector and less from the Information & Communication sector. Dublin, Belfast and the Mid-East also recorded the three lowest proportions of their GVA in Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants.

Dublin had the highest number of persons employed across the corridor at over 825,000 in 2024, followed by the Mid-East region (404,300), Belfast (155,000) and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon (121,000). The regions in Ireland displayed a much stronger recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-recession. Employment in Dublin and the Mid-East regions both exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 2021, while the number of persons employed in Belfast did not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. Both Dublin and the Mid-East recorded approximately 13% growth in employment between 2021 and 2024, while Belfast, Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon and Lisburn & Castlereagh recorded 4%, 1% and 8% increases during the same period, respectively. Newry, Mourne & Down is an outlier in this regard, having recorded an 11% increase in employment during these years, yet it consistently had the second lowest employment in the region. Employment in Newry, Mourne & Down tends to track that of Lisburn & Castlereagh closely. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon maintains some distance above these regions, though this gap narrowed in 2012 and 2020, when employment declined in this region. Also, apart from Newry, Mourne & Down and Lisburn & Castlereagh, all regions recorded declines in employment between 2011 and 2013. 

Both capitals, Belfast and Dublin, had the highest and second-highest proportion of their employment accounted for by the Services Sector. Newry, Mourne & Down, the region with the lowest number of people employed in this year, had the lowest proportion of its employment in this sector. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon had the highest share of the Production Sector, which includes Industry and Agriculture. The Mid-East and Newry, Mourne & Down had roughly similar shares of this sector. Dublin and Belfast had the lowest and second-lowest production-sector shares, 7.7% and 7.8% respectively. Both capitals also had lowest and second lowest proportion of their employment devoted to the Construction sector, while Newry, Mourne & Down had the highest. The Mid-East and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon had approximately similar proportions of their employment in this sector.

Figure 4.10 shows the proportion of the population in each qualification classification. Fingal, Dublin City and Meath recorded the highest proportions of higher and professional qualifications. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon and Newry, Mourne & Down recorded the lowest shares of this category. Conversely, Fingal, Dublin City, Meath and Lisburn & Castlereagh recorded the lowest shares of basic qualifications. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon, Belfast and Newry, Mourne & Down recorded the highest share of this category. 

Figure 4.11 shows the proportion of the population in each age group for the DBEC regions. The regions in Ireland generally had a higher share of their population in the 15-64 age group. As mentioned previously, this age group determines the availability of people to participate in the labour force. Dublin City had the highest share of the 15-64 age group, followed by Fingal and Belfast. Newry, Mourne & Down and Lisburn & Castlereagh had the lowest shares in this band. Fingal had the lowest proportion of its population accounted for by the >64 group, followed by Meath and Dublin City. Lisburn & Castlereagh had the highest share of the >64 group, followed by Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown and Newry, Mourne & Down, both 17.2%.