These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by the CSO. For further information please refer to the Under Reservation FAQs page.
When measured at the same time from the end of the reference year, initial detection rates for crimes reported in 2021 (and measured in September 2022), fell for most of the 15 recorded crime categories when compared with the initial rates for crimes reported in 2020 (as measured in September 2021). See Table 2.1.
In particular:
The crime incident detection rate is the number of detected incidents divided by the number of recorded incidents.
The detection rate in 2021 for Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences was 33% but this varied widely by sub-category. The highest detection rate was 50% for Murder-Attempt, while the lowest rate was 9% for Harassment & Related offences. See Figure 2.1, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
The detection rate for Theft & Related offences in 2021 was 33% in September 2022 which was lower than the figure of 36% when measured at the same time in 2020. Within this category, 56% of incidents classified as Theft from Shop were detected in 2021, compared to 21% for Theft/Taking of Vehicle and Related offences, and 14% of incidents of Theft from Person. See Figure 2.1, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
The detection rate for Controlled Drug offences in 2021 at 82% was lower than the corresponding rate in 2020 (84%) measured a year ago. Within this category, the detection rate for Possession of Drugs for Personal Use in 2021 was highest at 89% and this compared to 63% for Possession of Drugs for Sale or Supply, 53% for Cultivation or Manufacture of Drugs and 48% for Importation of Drugs. See Figure 2.1, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
The detection rate of Fraud, Deception and Related Crime offences reported in 2020 was 24%, based on data extracted at the start of September 2022. This was higher than the initial rate of 19% reported for 2020 (measured in September 2021). At present, just 6% of such crimes reported in 2021 have been detected. Between 2020 and 2021 there was a more than doubling in the number of reported fraud offences (from 7,865 to 17,122), see PxStat table CJA01. See Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
The detection rate in 2022 for Homicide offences reported in 2020 has remained unchanged at 82% from the rate this time last year. Homicide offences reported in 2021 have a current detection rate of 76%. See Figure 2.1, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
The two sub-categories in Homicide offences had quite different detection rates in 2021 – Murder/Manslaughter/Infanticide (64%) and Dangerous Driving Leading to Death (91%). In contrast, these two subcategories had nearly the same detection rates in 2020. The initial rate for Murder/Manslaughter/Infanticide was 82% in 2020 while the updated rate (measured in September 2021) was 83%. This compared with an initial rate for Dangerous Driving Leading to Death of 83% in 2020 and an updated rate of 81%. See Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
Sexual offences reported in 2021 had a detection rate of 12%, based on data extracted at the start of September 2022, higher than the rate of 10% for offences reported in 2020 and measured in September 2021. The updated detection rate for Sexual offences that were reported in 2020, (based on data from September 2022), had risen to 20%. This rise of 10 percentage points between the initial and updated detection rates for offences reported in 2020 reflects the increase in detected incidents between September 2021 and September 2022. See Figure 2.1, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.
| X-axis label | Detection Rate |
|---|---|
| 01 Homicide offences | 76 |
| 02 Sexual offences | 12 |
| 03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences | 33 |
| 06 Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences | 26 |
| 07 Burglary & Related offences | 20 |
| 08 Theft & Related offences | 33 |
| 09 Fraud, Deception & Related offences | 6 |
| 10 Controlled Drug offences | 82 |
| 12 Damage to Property & to the Environment | 22 |
| 13 Public Order & other Social Code offences | 85 |
| Table 2.1 Crime incident detection rates1 and percentage point change for crimes reported in 2020 and 2021, classified by crime offence group2 | |||
| Crime incident detection rate (%) | Percentage point change | ||
| ICCS Offence Group | 2020 Initial 3 | 2021 Initial 4 | |
| 01 Homicide & Related offences | 82 | 76 | -6 |
| 02 Sexual offences | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| 03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences | 38 | 33 | -5 |
| 04 Dangerous or Negligent Acts | 87 | 87 | 0 |
| 05 Kidnapping & Related offences | 46 | 29 | -17 |
| 06 Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences | 31 | 26 | -5 |
| 07 Burglary & Related offences | 22 | 20 | -2 |
| 08 Theft & Related offences | 36 | 33 | -3 |
| 09 Fraud, Deception & Related offences | 19 | 6 | -13 |
| 10 Controlled Drug offences | 84 | 82 | -2 |
| 11 Weapons & Explosives offences | 76 | 71 | -5 |
| 12 Damage to Property & to the Environment | 24 | 22 | -2 |
| 13 Public Order & Other Social Code offences | 86 | 85 | -1 |
| 15 Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime | 61 | 59 | -2 |
| 1 Crime incident detection rate is the number of detected incidents divided by the number of recorded incidents. A detected incident means at least one suspected offender has been sanctioned. | |||
| 2 These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by CSO. | |||
| 3 Measure based on data extracted 8 months following end of reference year, as published in Recorded Crime Detection 2020. | |||
| 4 Measure based on data extracted 8 months following end of reference year, data extracted 2nd September 2022. | |||
Crime incident detection rates for a reference period tend to increase for a time, as more investigations are completed, before settling.
Figure 2.2 and Table 2.3 below compares the measured detection rate for incidents reported on a quarterly basis in 2020 and 2021, based on data extracted on 02 September 2022.
In particular:
| 02 Sexual offences | 05 Kidnapping & Related offences | 09 Fraud, Deception & Related offences | |
| Q1 2020 | 23 | 63 | 29 |
| Q2 2020 | 24 | 51 | 27 |
| Q3 2020 | 16 | 44 | 22 |
| Q4 2020 | 17 | 35 | 19 |
| Q1 2021 | 17 | 47 | 12 |
| Q2 2021 | 12 | 44 | 7 |
| Q3 2021 | 13 | 14 | 5 |
| Q4 2021 | 5 | 22 | 3 |
Learn about our data and confidentiality safeguards, and the steps we take to produce statistics that can be trusted by all.