Estimates covering probation related re-offending for people who received probation orders in 2021 indicate a six percentage point decrease in the annual re-offending rate of males under the age of 25 between 2020 (37%) and 2021 (31%). In comparison, data on young adult females indicates re-offending rates marginally increased between 2020 (25%) and 2021 (26%). The re-offending rate for those aged 25-44 in males remained similar between 2020 (23%) and 2021 (22%) while the female equivalent rate fell by five percentage points between 2020 (24%) and 2021 (19%).
In 2021, people that received probation orders relating to Public Order offences had the highest likelihood of re-offending, with over one-third of them doing so (36%). This category includes probation orders issued in relation to:
The largest number of probation orders issued by the courts in 2021 were linked to referrals for Controlled Drug offence related orders. This category accounted for one-fifth (20%) of all the probation orders issued in 2021 (831 out of 4,198). In this category, the one-year re-offending rate was 21%.
The Probation Re-Offending Statistics include people who received three broad types of court sanctions: Post Release Supervision Orders (PRSO’s), Probation Orders, or Community Service Orders depending on the circumstances of their cases. Out of the three types, people linked with a PRSO (11%) in 2021 were the least likely to re-offend. PRSO’s indicate that an offender is monitored following release from prison in order to comply with the conditions set out by their court outcome. The PRSO re-offending rate for 2021 (11%) was also seven percentage points lower than the same estimate for 2020 (18%). People who received a Probation Order (28%) in 2021 were most likely out of the three court sanction types included in this study to re-offend within a year.
Mayo (7%), Longford (11%), and Roscommon (11%) were the three counties with the lowest one-year re-offending rates at NUTS1 3 level in 2021. The West (13%) (Galway, Mayo, and Roscommon), and Mid-East (20%) (Kildare, Louth, Meath, and Wicklow) also had the lowest regional levels of re-offending. The South-West (Cork and Kerry), continued to have the highest level (28%) of one-year re-offending from people who received probation in 2021. In Dublin, where the highest number of people linked to probation were based (33%), just under one-quarter (24%) who received a probation order re-offended within a year, a reduction of three percentage points when compared to the rate for Dublin in 2020.
1NUTS = Nomenclature des Unités territoriales statistiques. A standard geographical breakdown of Ireland geographically at county (NUTS 3), regional (NUTS 2) and national level (NUTS 1). See CSO County and NUTS Regions classification for further information.
Over two-thirds (67%) of people who received a probation order in 2021 and who re-offended within one year did so in the first six months after receiving their probation order.
Earlier re-offending (within 6 months of probation) was higher for young adult females under the age of 25 (88%) than males (72%) although in 2021 the number of young adult males (273) linked to probation orders remained significantly more than females of the same age (24).
People that re-offended within a year of receiving their probation orders in 2021 were most likely to carry out a re-offence related to Public Order & Other Social Codes offences, with over a quarter (30%) of re-offending occurring in this offence category. This offence category includes:
In contrast, there was almost no re-offending linked to re-offences in the categories of Homicide, Sexual offences, or Kidnapping.
Overall, a small proportion (15%) of re-offences that took place within a year of probation resulted in a custodial sanction being issued by the courts, a fall compared with results from people who re-offended in 2020 (21%).
Re-offences related to Weapons (48%) and Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime (33%) were the most likely to result in a custodial sanction. This category includes offences relating to:
Theft (35) and Public Order (27) re-offences that had the highest number of people issued with custodial sentences from re-offending in 2021.
Over one-quarter (28%) of the re-offending that took place within a year of probation by adults under 25 took place in offences related to Public Order.
Controlled Drug (24%) and Theft (16%) related offences were the second and third most frequent re-offending offence types in young adults who re-offended within a year of receiving a probation order.
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