Your feedback can help us improve and enhance our services to the public. Tell us what matters to you in our online Customer Satisfaction Survey.
For Quarter 1 2023, the updated estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicates a contraction of 2.8% (See Editor’s Note below).
Multinational dominated sectors contracted by 9.0% while all other sectors grew by 1.3% in the quarter.
Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), a broad measure of underlying domestic activity that covers personal, government, and investment spending, rose by 0.1% in Q1 2023.
Personal spending (PCE) on goods and services, a key measure of domestic economic activity, was up by 0.1% in the quarter.
Net Exports posted an increase of 2.1% in Q1 2023 (+€1.0 billion).
Examining PCE at constant price levels over the past four years, personal spending in Q1 2023 exceeded the peak pre-pandemic level of personal spending recorded in Q2 2019 by 8.6%.
The updated estimated GDP figure for Q1 2023 Final Estimate fell by 2.8%. This compares with a Preliminary GDP Estimate published on 27 April 2023 that indicated a decline of 2.7% for the quarter. The reason for the revision is that the updated GDP estimate for Q1 2023 of -2.8% includes new information, in particular for PCE, Exports, Imports, and sectors including Information & Communication, Public Administration, Education & Health, Financial & Insurance services, Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants, and Manufacturing Industry. Additionally, today’s result is based on both Expenditure and Output data, while the Preliminary estimate, published as a CSO Frontier Series Output, was based predominantly on economic Output data.
Preliminary estimates are published under the CSO Frontier Series which may use new compilation processes which are under development and / or new or more timely data sources and therefore the results may be subject to revision over time. Publishing outputs under the Frontier Series allows the CSO to provide useful new information to users and receive informed feedback on these new methods and outputs whilst at the same time making sure that the limitations are well explained and understood. See a list of our CSO Frontier Outputs.
Learn about our data and confidentiality safeguards, and the steps we take to produce statistics that can be trusted by all.
Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) today (14 July 2023) published Quarterly National Accounts and International Accounts results for Quarter 1, 2023. The CSO published Preliminary GDP Estimates for Q1 2023 on 27 April 2023 as a CSO Frontier Series output. The Quarterly National Accounts Q1 2023 Provisional was published on 02 June 2023.
Assistant Director General with responsibility for Economic Statistics, Jennifer Banim, commented:
“Updated results for Quarter 1 (Q1) 2023 show Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 2.8% compared with Quarter 4 2022. Factor income outflows were €2.7 billion higher than in the previous quarter, leading to an overall decline in Gross National Product (GNP) of 6.9% when compared with the previous quarter.
The Multinational Enterprise (MNE)-dominated sectors of the economy contracted by 9.0% overall in the Q1 2023. The Industry sector recorded a significant decrease in Q1 2023 compared with the previous quarter, falling by 13.2%, more than offsetting the growth in the Information & Communication sector of 4.9% in the quarter.
Domestic Economy
Sectors focused on the domestic market experienced mixed results in the quarter. The domestically facing Construction sector rose by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter while the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector expanded by 2.1%. Finance & Insurance grew by 8.4% in Q1 2023 while the Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector was up by 1.7%. The Arts & Entertainment sector recorded a marked decline of 22.3% in the quarter while Professional & Administrative services fell by 2.5%.
Expenditure in the Economy
Looking at expenditure in the economy, Investment in capital formation decreased by 16.5% in the quarter explained by a fall in investment in intangible assets when compared with Q4 2022. Personal spending increased by 0.1% in the quarter, as did Modified Domestic Demand (MDD). Examining Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) at constant price levels over the past four years, personal spending in Q1 2023 exceeded the peak pre-pandemic level of personal spending recorded in Q2 2019 by 8.6%. Net exports of Goods & Services grew by 2.1% in Q1 2023 or by €1.0 billion while Government spending on goods and services fell by 4.9% quarter-on-quarter compared with Q4 2022.
Impact of Globalisation and the Indicators of Underlying Domestic Activity
Final Domestic Demand (FDD), a measure of personal, government and investment spending, decreased by 7.1% in Q1 2023, reflecting the lower levels of investment in Intangible Assets compared with the previous quarter. In Q1 2023, the MDD indicator increased by 0.1%. MDD is an important measure of underlying demand and excludes Intellectual Property Products (IPP) and aircraft leasing-related globalisation effects from the standard FDD measure."
More commentary is available in the Press Release also issued today. The Press Release also covers today’s publication of the Annual National Accounts 2022.