Key Findings

• While the Labour Force Survey (LFS) results for Quarter 2 (Q2) 2020 show that employment fell by 3.4% in the year to Q2 2020, the number of employed persons who were Away from work when interviewed had increased by 405,700 or 276.7% over the year. As a result, the number of Actual Hours worked decreased by 16.8 million hours per week or 22.1% over the year to Q2 2020
• The number of persons who left the PUP scheme by 09 August 2020 is estimated to have been 441,981 persons; this outflow is equivalent to 62.7% of all those who had received at least one payment from the scheme up to that point
• Those aged 25-44 years were most likely to have left the PUP scheme (65.4% for those aged 25-34 years and 64.7% for those aged 35-44 years) while the youngest and the oldest age groups were least likely to have left the PUP scheme (55.6% for those aged 60 years and older and 57.9% for those aged under 20)
• Looking at the analysis of the outflows by the economic sector that the person worked in prior to receiving the PUP shows that 78.0% of those persons who had previously been in receipt of PUP and who had worked in the Construction sector had left the scheme by 09 August 2020. This compares with 73.7% for the Industry sector and contrasts with 41.6% for the Education sector
• Those who had left the PUP scheme prior to 09 August 2020 had spent an average of 10.5 weeks on the scheme while the average time on the scheme was 10.0 weeks for males and 11.1 weeks for females
• The average number of weeks in receipt of the PUP for those who left the scheme was lowest for those who had previously worked in the Human Health and Social Work activities sector at 7.7 weeks and highest for those who had previously worked in the Other NACE activities¹ sector at 13.3 weeks
• Approximately one in 12 (7.5%) of persons aged 15 years and older who reported having lost employment or been laid off due to COVID-19 in Q2 2020 indicated that they did not expect to return to the same job once restrictions were lifted
• Approximately one in five (21.1%) persons age 15 years and older indicated that they had already returned to the same job compared to approximately one in nine of those who were receiving the PUP (11.3%) and one in three of those who were benefitting from TWSS (32.9%)
• While 4.4% of those who were in receipt of the PUP were officially classified as Unemployed using the International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria when interviewed for the LFS in Q2 2020, 18.8% self-classified themselves as being Unemployed
• People are more likely to be officially classified as Employed than to classify themselves as Employed if they are in receipt of one of the COVID-19 income supports

Introduction

This bulletin is the first in a series of outputs designed to provide high-level supplementary labour market analysis to users alongside the standard labour market outputs and metrics. The data used is sourced from the LFS and administrative datasets. This first bulletin is specifically designed to give some context to the standard LFS results for Q2 2020. Further iterations of this output are likely to focus on specific aspects of the labour market.

The LFS, which is being published today for Q2 2020, is the official source of employment and unemployment estimates for Ireland. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) are obliged to follow specific methodology for the LFS including how a person is classified as employed, unemployed or economically inactive (not in the labour force) using the ILO concepts and definitions. The ILO criteria do not fully capture the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market – see Information Note on the implications of COVID-19 on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The Information Note highlights the challenges in the application of the ILO concepts following the introduction of the COVID-19 income support payments.

The CSO publishes detailed weekly data on the COVID-19 income support schemes – see Detailed COVID-19 Income Support and Live Register Tables.  The analyses presented in this bulletin have matched recipients of the PUP and TWSS to respondents of the LFS to gain additional insight into the labour market status of these individuals. Some relevant supplementary data from the LFS is also presented.

Actual Hours worked per week in the LFS

In the LFS, a person can still be classified as Employed even if not working in a job when interviewed using the ILO criteria so long as they expect to return to the job within three months and/or continue to be paid at least half their wage or salary by their employer Away from Work’. Those who are classified as Employed on the ILO basis and who worked during the reference week are asked for the number of hours that they actually worked that week Actual Hours. The estimate of the total number of Actual Hours worked per week in each quarter is calculated by summing the number of ‘Actual Hours’ worked in the reference week for all persons in employment.

Table 1 presents the numbers in employment, the numbers Away from Work and the Actual Hours’ worked per week in Q2 2019 and Q2 2020 as well as the annual change and annual percentage changes for each. While the numbers in employment on the ILO basis, which stood at 2,222,500 in Q2 2020, is down -77,600 or -3.4% over the year since Q2 2019 the number of persons ‘Away from Work’ (employed but not working) is up 405,700 or 276.7% over the year. As a result, the number of ‘Actual Hours’ worked is down 16.8 million hours per week or 22.1% over the year having stood at 76.0 million hours per week in Q2 2019 and decreased to 59.2 million hours per week in Q2 2020.

Preliminary Analysis of Outflows from Income Support Schemes

At the end of Q2 2020 (week ending 28 June 2020), 433,993 persons were being supported by the PUP scheme while 695,867 persons had received at least one payment from the PUP scheme since it began. At the same time, 399,388 persons are estimated to have been supported by the TWSS while 560,488 persons had received at least one payment from the TWSS since it began.

At the time of conducting analysis on outflows from PUP for this report, the most recently available data for PUP was for the week ending 09 August 2020. Up to and including that week, a total of 704,459 persons had received at least one payment of the PUP since the scheme started in March 2020. The numbers in receipt of the PUP on a weekly basis peaked at 602,107 persons for the week ending 03 May 2020. The weekly total in receipt of PUP has been falling since then and stood at 262,478 for the week ending 09 August 2020. Detailed tables of the numbers on the Live Register or benefitting from PUP or TWSS for each week since the end of March are updated on a weekly basis by the Labour Market Analysis area of the CSO. Please see  Detailed COVID-19 Income Support and Live Register Tables

Subtracting the number of persons who were in receipt of the PUP for a specific week from the total who have received at least one payment up to that week gives the outflow from PUP. The outflow represents the number of persons who have left the PUP scheme up to that point in time. Subtracting the number of persons in receipt of PUP for the week ending 09 August 2020 (262,478) from the total who have received at least one payment from the scheme up to and including that week (704,459) yields an estimate of 441,981 persons who can be considered to have left the PUP scheme by 09 August 2020. Thus, the outflow from PUP as at 09 August 2020 is estimated to be 441,981 persons; this outflow is equivalent to 62.7% of all those who had received at least one payment from the scheme up to that point.

Preliminary analysis of the outflows from PUP are presented in Table 2. While 62.7% of all those who had received at least one payment for PUP had left the scheme by 09 August 2020, breaking the numbers down by sex shows that 64.8% of males had left the scheme compared to 60.1% of females. Those aged 25-44 years were most likely to have left the PUP scheme (65.4% for those aged 25-34 years and 64.7% for those aged 35-44 years) while the youngest and the oldest age groups were least likely to have left the PUP scheme (55.6% for those aged 60 years and over and 57.9% for those aged under 20 years).

Matching the PUP data to administrative data sources from Revenue for the first three months of 2020 identifies the economic sectors that a PUP recipient worked in prior to joining the PUP scheme for approximately 75% of PUP recipients. Looking at the analysis of the outflows by the economic sector that the person worked in prior to receiving the PUP shows that 78% of those persons who had previously been in receipt of PUP and who had worked in the Construction sector had left the scheme by 09 August 2020. This compares with 73.7% for the Industry sector and 68.9% and contrasts with 41.6% for the Education sector.

Those who had left the PUP scheme prior to 09 August 2020 had spent an average of 10.5 weeks on the scheme. Breaking the outflow down by sex shows that males who left the PUP scheme had spent 10.0 weeks on average on the scheme compared to 11.1 weeks for females. There is no evidence of significant differences by age group with the average values ranging from 10.3 weeks for those aged 25-34 years, 35-44 years and 45-54 years to 11.0 weeks for those aged 20-24 years. The average number of weeks in receipt of the PUP was lowest for those who had previously worked in the Human Health and Social Work Activities sector at 7.7 weeks and highest for those who had previously worked in the Other NACE activities¹ sector at 13.3 weeks.

All estimates presented in this section are based on the latest available data at the time of running the analyses and may be subject to change when more information regarding the individuals on the schemes becomes available.

The CSO is working on setting up further analyses of the outflows from PUP to identify which of those persons who have left the scheme have returned to employment, whether subsidised employment (TWSS) or non-subsidised employment as well as the numbers who have transferred to other schemes being administered by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP). This work will shortly be presented in a new output to provide important and policy relevant information in relation to these schemes available to users. Preliminary analysis conducted by the CSO of the 441,981 persons who have left PUP up to the week ending 09 August 2020 has determined that 119,892 of them (27.1%) have been found to have benefitted from the TWSS scheme for at least one week after leaving the PUP.

Expectation of return to work by receipt of COVID-19 income supports

The CSO worked quickly at the end of March 2020 to add new questions to the LFS questionnaire for Q2 2020 (April to June 2020) to try and capture some relevant information from respondents on the effects of COVID-19 on their labour market situation that would not have been captured in the standard LFS questionnaire. Some initial findings from the first couple of weeks of the quarter have already been published (see Employments and Life Effects release). The CSO is planning to publish updated results from those questions covering the entire quarter shortly.

LFS respondents were asked in Q2 2020 whether their employment situation had changed due to COVID-19 and they were then asked a series of questions in relation to the type of effect it had on their employment. Those who had their employment affected due to COVID-19 and who indicated that they had lost employment or been laid off were asked if they expected to return to employment once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted and results from analysis of that question are presented in Table 3 and Figure 1. Results are presented for all persons aged 15 years and older and separately for those who were benefitting from either the PUP or TWSS for the reference week that they were being interviewed in relation to.

Of those persons aged 15 and older who reported having lost employment or been laid off due to COVID-19 in Q2 2020, when interviewed for the LFS in Q2 2020:

• Approximately one in 12 (7.5%) indicated that they did not expect to return to the same job once restrictions were lifted
• Approximately one in 12 (8.3%) who were in receipt of the PUP indicated that they did not expect to return to the same job once restrictions were lifted
• Only 1.9% of those who were benefitting from the TWSS indicated that they did not expect to return to the same job once restrictions were lifted
• Approximately one in five (21.1%) indicated that they had already returned to the same job compared to approximately one in nine of those who were receiving the PUP (11.3%) and one in three of those who were benefitting from TWSS (32.9%)

ILO status and Principal Economic Status (PES) for those in receipt of COVID-19 income supports in Q2 2020

The official measures of employment and unemployment published from the LFS are based on a series of questions that objectively classify a person as Employed, Unemployed or Inactive using the ILO concepts and definitions. The Principal Economic Status (PES), on the other hand, is a subjective self-assessment by the respondent of their own economic status and the labour market status assigned to an individual from the LFS using the standard ILO methodology may not agree with their own subjective assessment of their situation. For example, a person laid off with no assurance of return to work may be perceived by many as unemployed. However, under objective ILO guidelines, unless this person is actively seeking work and available to take up employment within two weeks, (s)he is deemed to be Inactive and outside the Labour Force.

Table 4 presents the percentages of all persons aged 15 years and older who were in each of the ILO and PES categories in Q2 2020. The percentage breakdowns by ILO and PES are also presented separately for those who were in receipt of the PUP and for those who benefitted from the TWSS in Q2 2020.

In Q2 2020, Table 4 shows that:

• For all three groups presented, the percentage of those who were classified as Employed on the objective (ILO) basis is higher than the number At work using the subjective (PES) basis
• Just over half of all those aged 15 years and older were classified as Employed using the ILO or At work using the PES measures at 55.9% and 51.9% respectively
• Of those in receipt of the PUP during the quarter, 69.7% were classified as Employed on the ILO basis while 58.9% classified themselves as At work using the PES
• Of those in receipt of the TWSS during the quarter, 95.4% were classified as Employed on the ILO basis while 86.8% self-classified themselves as ‘At work’ using the PES

Table 4 also shows that, in Q2 2020:

• For all three groups presented, the percentage of those who were classified as Unemployed on the objective (ILO) basis is lower than the subjective (PES) basis
• Those aged 15 years and older were more than twice as likely to self-classify themselves as Unemployed using PES as to be objectively classified as Unemployed on the ILO basis at 6.9% and 3.0% respectively
• Those in receipt of the PUP in Q2 2020 were almost four times more likely to self-classify themselves as Unemployed using PES (18.8%) as to be objectively classified as Unemployed on the ILO basis (4.8%)
• Virtually all of those benefitting from the TWSS were officially classified as either Employed or Inactive while 2.9% were objectively classified as Unemployed on the ILO basis

Persons who are not classified as either Employed or Unemployed are deemed to be outside the Labour Force and are classified as Inactive and Table 4 shows that, in Q2 2020:

• The proportion of all persons aged 15 years and older who were objectively (ILO) or subjectively (PES) assessed as being ‘Inactive’ are quite similar at 41.1% and 41.2% respectively
• Slightly more of those in receipt of PUP were classified as Inactive using ILO (25.5%) compared to PES (22.3%)
• Those in receipt of TWSS were over twice as likely to classify themselves as Inactive at 10.3% compared to being classified as Inactive using the ILO criteria (4.5%)

For further COVID-19 related information go to the CSO COVID-19 Information Hub

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Footnote:

¹ Other NACE activities consists of the economic sectors including the following type of employment: Creative, arts and entertainment activities, Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities, Gambling and betting activities, Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities, Activities of membership organisations, Repair of computers and personal and household goods and Other personal service activities