Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.5% in Quarter 3 (Q3) 2024 (See Editor’s Note below).
Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), a broad measure of underlying domestic activity that covers personal, government, and investment spending, increased by 1.3% in Q3 2024.
Personal spending on goods and services, a key measure of domestic economic activity, fell by 0.2% in the quarter.
Multinational-dominated sectors grew by 9.1% in the quarter with Domestic sectors increasing by 1.5%.
Compensation of Employees rose by 0.6% in the quarter.
The Balance of Payments Current Account recorded a surplus of €23.0 billion in transactions with the rest of the world in the quarter.
The updated estimated GDP figure for Q3 2024 increased by 3.5%. This compares with a Preliminary GDP Estimate published on 29 October 2024 that indicated an increase of 2.0% for the quarter. The reason for the revision is that the updated GDP estimate for Q3 2024 indicating the 3.5% expansion is based on both Expenditure and Output data, while the Preliminary estimate was based predominantly on economic Output data. Preliminary estimates are published under the CSO Frontier Series which may use new compilation processes which are under development and / or new or more timely data sources and therefore the results may be subject to revision over time. Publishing outputs under the Preliminary Estimate allows the CSO to provide useful new information to users and receive informed feedback on these new methods and outputs whilst at the same time making sure that the limitations are well explained and understood. A list of our CSO Frontier Outputs is available.
| Kieran Culhane | (+353) 1 498 4368 |
|---|---|
| John Sheridan | (+353) 1 498 4258 |
| nat_acc@cso.ie | |
| internationalaccounts@cso.ie |
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (05 December 2024) published Quarterly National Accounts and International Accounts results for Quarter 3 (Q3) 2024, following on from the Preliminary GDP Estimates for Q3 2024 issued on 29 October 2024 as a CSO Frontier Series output.
Summary Results
Assistant Director General with responsibility for Economic Statistics, Chris Sibley, said:
“In today’s results, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have risen by 3.5% in July, August, and September (Q3) 2024. Looking at a key measure of the domestic economy, Modified Domestic Demand, we can see it increased in the quarter and has expanded by 3.1% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2023. In addition, the Compensation of Employees increased by 3% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2023.
Globalised Sector
The globalised Industry sector expanded by 14.0% in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024 while the Information & Communication sector posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. Overall, the combined multinational-dominated elements of the Industry and Information & Communication sectors rose by 9.1% in the quarter. These sectors accounted for 46.0% of total value added in the economy, compared with a 54.0% share for all other sectors.
Domestic Economy
The sectors focused on the domestic market posted a combined increase in activity of 1.5% in the quarter. The Finance & Insurance sector expanded by 4.0% in the quarter while the Professional, Administrative & Support sector increased by 3.6% compared with Q2 2024. The Construction sector rose by 3.5% in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024 with Real Estate activities up by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter. The domestic facing Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector grew by 1.3% in Q3 2024 while Arts & Entertainment recorded an increase of 0.4% over the same period. The Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector posted a modest decline of 0.3% in Q3 2024 quarter-on-quarter while the Public Administration, Education & Health sector fell by 0.1%.
Expenditure in the Economy
Looking at expenditure, investment in capital formation rose by 211.9% or €18.6 billion compared with the previous quarter. It must be recalled however that capital formation in Q2 2024 was lower compared with recent trends due to a significant export of Intellectual Property (IP) arising in that quarter from global corporate restructuring in the multinational sector. Net exports of Goods & Services fell by 26.9% in Q3 2024 or by €16.6 billion. Government spending on goods and services rose by 1.5% in the quarter while personal spending on goods and services (the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE indicator) decreased by a modest 0.2% in Q3 2024.
Impact of Globalisation and the Indicators of Underlying Domestic Activity
Final Domestic Demand (FDD), a measure of personal, government, and investment spending, increased by 32.3% in Q3 2024, compared with Q2 2024. This reflected a return of investment to more usual recent trend levels, with the Q2 2024 base quarter having been impacted by a significant export of IP. In Q3 2024, the Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) indicator grew by 1.3%. MDD is an important measure of underlying demand and excludes Intellectual Property Products (IPP) and aircraft leasing-related globalisation effects from the standard FDD measure.
International Accounts
In the International Accounts, the Current Account of the Balance of Payments recorded a surplus of €23.0 billion in flows with the rest of the world in Q3 2024, an improvement of €4.3 billion compared with the surplus of €18.6 billion recorded in Q3 2023. The Merchandise balance improved by €7.0 billion in Q3 2024 compared with the same quarter in 2023 while the Services balance disimproved by €0.9 billion. Net outflows of multinational profits were €28.6 billion in the quarter, an increase of €3.3 billion on the net outflows recorded in Q3 2023 (which dis-improves the Current Account balance).
Today’s International Accounts release includes a table of Current Account transactions with the UK. The results show a surplus of €3.9 billion for Trade in Goods & Services with the UK in Q3 2024, up €1.2 billion on the Q3 2023 trade balance. The trade surplus in Q3 2024 was offset by a deficit of €9.1 billion for net income flows, giving an overall Current Account deficit with the UK of €5.2 billion in the quarter.”
Results for the Year-To-Date (Jan to Sept 2024 compared with Jan to Sept 2023) and Revisions
Analysing the period from January to September 2024, National Accounts Statistician Gordon Cavanagh commented:
“Results for the Year-To-Date 2024 (Jan-Sept 2024) compared with the equivalent period of 2023 show GDP contracting by 1.7%. Factor income outflows were €12.2 billion lower than in the first nine months of 2023, leading to an overall increase in GNP of 2.2% for the first nine months of 2024 compared with the equivalent period of 2023. On a Non-Seasonally Adjusted basis, the GDP result for Q1 2024 has been updated from -4.7% to -4.8% (a downward revision of -0.2% with rounding) with GDP for Q2 2024 revised from -4.0% to -3.2% (an upward revision of +0.9% rounded).
In the globalised sectors, there was an overall decrease of 6.5% for the first nine months of 2024 compared with the equivalent nine months of 2023. While the Information & Communication sector expanded by 5.3% in Jan-Sept 2024 compared with Jan-Sept 2023, the Industry sector was down by 10.2% over the same period. Certain sectors focused on the domestic market experienced continued growth with Professional & Administrative Services rising 6.1% while the Public Administration, Education & Health sector was up 3.2% in the period. Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants and the Real Estate sectors increased by 2.2% and 2.1% respectively in the nine months to end-September 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. However, contractions were recorded in Jan-Sept 2024 in Finance & Insurance (-8.6%), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (-6.8%), Arts & Entertainment (-2.2%), and Construction (-1.5%) compared with the equivalent period of 2023. The Domestic sectors combined grew by 2.7% in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the first nine months of 2023.
Year-To-Date Expenditure in the Economy
Net Exports rose by 8.3% or €12.1 billion in monetary terms in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the first nine months of 2023. The €46.4 billion increase in Exports in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2023 outpaced the growth in Imports of €34.3 billion. Capital Investment contracted by 28.0% in Jan-Sept 2024 compared with the same period of 2023, while Government spending on Goods & Services increased by 4.2% in Jan-Sept 2024 compared with the same period of 2023. Personal spending (PCE) rose by 2.4% in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the equivalent period of 2023. FDD decreased by 4.5% in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period of 2023 as a result of the significant fall in Investment, while the MDD indicator grew by 3.1% in the same period.
Compensation of Employees grew by 3.0% in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the equivalent nine months of 2023."