Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 4.6% (See Editor’s Note below).
Multinational dominated sectors contracted by 15.7% with all other sectors growing by 2.7% in the quarter.
Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), a broad measure of underlying domestic activity that covers personal, government, and investment spending, increased by 2.7% in Q1 2023.
Personal spending on goods and services, a key measure of domestic economic activity, increased by 1.7% in the quarter.
Net Exports posted a decline of 1.9% in Q1 2023 (-€0.9 billion).
The Balance of Payments Current Account recorded a surplus of €13.8 billion in transactions with the rest of the world in the quarter.
Examining PCE at constant price levels over the past four years, personal spending in Q1 2023 exceeded the peak pre-pandemic level of personal spending recorded in Q2 2019 by 2.7%.
The updated estimated GDP figure for Q1 2023 Provisional fell by 4.6%. This compares with a Preliminary GDP Estimate published on 27 April 2023 that indicated a decline of 2.7% for the quarter. The reason for the revision is that the updated GDP estimate for Q1 2023 of -4.6% includes new information for the Industry sector. Additionally, today’s result is based on both Expenditure and Output data, while the Preliminary estimate, published as a CSO Frontier Series Output, was based predominantly on economic Output data.
Preliminary estimates are published under the CSO Frontier Series which may use new compilation processes which are under development and / or new or more timely data sources and therefore the results may be subject to revision over time. Publishing outputs under the Frontier Series allows the CSO to provide useful new information to users and receive informed feedback on these new methods and outputs whilst at the same time making sure that the limitations are well explained and understood. See a list of our CSO Frontier Outputs.
| Christopher Sibley | (+353) 1 498 4305 |
|---|---|
| John Sheridan | (+353) 1 498 4258 |
| nat_acc@cso.ie | |
| internationalaccounts@cso.ie |
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (02 June 2023) published Quarterly National Accounts and International Accounts results for Quarter 1, 2023, following on from the Preliminary GDP Estimates for Q1 2023 issued on 27 April 2023 as a CSO Frontier Series output.
Assistant Director General with responsibility for Economic Statistics, Jennifer Banim, commented:
“In today’s results, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have contracted by 4.6% in Q1 2023. For Gross National Product (GNP) – a measure of economic activity that excludes the profits of multinationals – a decline of 8.0% is estimated for the quarter.
The globalised Industry (excl. Construction) sector contracted by 18.2% in Q1 2023 compared with Q4 2022 while the Information & Communication sector posted an increase of 4.0% over the same period. Overall, multinational-dominated sectors declined by 15.7% in the quarter, the largest decline since Q1 2017, and these sectors accounted for 53.0% of total value added in the economy, compared with a 47.0% share for all other sectors.
Domestic Economy
Economic activity increased for most sectors focused on the domestic economy, but there was a mixed overall picture. The Construction sector grew by 12.0% in the quarter while the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector expanded by 15.9% compared with Q4 2022. The Finance & Insurance sector increased by 8.3% in Q1 2023 compared with Q4 2022 with the Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector growing by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. Growth of 1.1% was posted in Public Administration, Education & Health with the Real Estate sector up 0.5%. However, there were declines in the Arts & Entertainment and the Professional, Administrative & Support sectors in the quarter of 15.3% and 0.2% respectively.
Expenditure in the Economy
Looking at expenditure, investment in capital formation fell by 12.7% or €3.3 billion reflecting the lower levels of investment in Intangible Assets compared with the previous quarter. Net exports of Goods & Services fell by 1.9% in Q1 2023 or by €0.9 billion. Personal spending on goods and services (the PCE indicator) increased by 1.7% in the quarter while Government spending on goods and services fell by 3.5% in Q1 2023. Examining PCE at constant price levels over the past four years, personal spending in Q1 2023 exceeded the peak pre-pandemic level of personal spending recorded in Q2 2019 by 2.7%.
Impact of Globalisation and the Indicators of Underlying Domestic Activity
Final Domestic Demand (FDD), a measure of personal, government and investment spending, decreased by 4.9% in Q1 2023, reflecting the lower levels of investment in Intangible Assets compared with the previous quarter. In Q1 2023, the Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) indicator increased by 2.7%. MDD is an important measure of underlying demand and excludes IPP and aircraft leasing-related globalisation effects from the standard Final Domestic Demand measure.
International Accounts
In the International Accounts, the Current Account of the Balance of Payments recorded a surplus of €13.8 billion in flows with the rest of the world in Q1 2023, a dis-improvement of €3.2 billion compared with the surplus of €17.0 billion recorded in Q1 2022. The Merchandise balance improved by €8.3 billion in Q1 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022 while the Services balance disimproved by €6.9 billion. Net outflows of multinational profits were €35.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of €3.4 billion on the net outflows recorded in Q1 2022.
Today’s International Accounts publication includes a table of Current Account transactions with the UK. The results show a surplus of €2.2 billion for Trade in Goods & Services with the UK in Q1 2023, a dis-improvement of €0.5 billion on the Q1 2022 trade balance. The trade surplus was offset by a deficit of €6.5 billion for net income flows, giving an overall Current Account deficit with the UK of €4.2 billion in the quarter.”