This release is categorised as a CSO Fronter Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.
Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by an estimated 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Q4) 2025, when compared with Q3 2025.
The decrease was mainly driven by contraction in the multinational dominated Industry sector in Q4 2025.
The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted decrease of 0.6% in Q4 2025 in volume terms when compared with Q3 2025.
| Qtr on Qtr | |
| Q1 2022 | 3.9538 |
| Q2 2022 | 2.7043 |
| Q3 2022 | 2.0325 |
| Q4 2022 | -1.5225 |
| Q1 2023 | -1.8598 |
| Q2 2023 | 0.6978 |
| Q3 2023 | -1.9824 |
| Q4 2023 | -3.1531 |
| Q1 2024 | 1.6436 |
| Q2 2024 | 0.4483 |
| Q3 2024 | 6.1065 |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3348 |
| Q1 2025 | 7.424 |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2588 |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3419 |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5714 |
| Year on Year | |
| Q1 2022 | 7.39 |
| Q2 2022 | 7.5971 |
| Q3 2022 | 7.2747 |
| Q4 2022 | 7.7874 |
| Q1 2023 | 2.4413 |
| Q2 2023 | -0.8314 |
| Q3 2023 | -4.7046 |
| Q4 2023 | -6.5679 |
| Q1 2024 | -2.6829 |
| Q2 2024 | -2.3462 |
| Q3 2024 | 3.9979 |
| Q4 2024 | 11.5642 |
| Q1 2025 | 20.0132 |
| Q2 2025 | 17.1588 |
| Q3 2025 | 10.8006 |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7295 |
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 January 2026) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 4 (Q4) 2025. This release is a CSO Frontier Series output and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.
These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) Q4 2025 release, which will be published in early March 2026 when additional data sources are available to the CSO. The results will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2025.
Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Integration Division, said: "In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in October, November, and December (Q4) 2025 in volume terms when compared with Q3 2025. This was driven by a decrease in the multinational dominated sector of Industry in Q4 2025.
These preliminary estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data, and other indicators of activity. Please see the Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results. Company profits may be subject to year-end adjustments which are not available in time to be included in this early estimate of GDP. Data from Q4 2025 may therefore be subject to a higher degree of revision in future QNA releases than data from the Q1, Q2 or Q3 2025 reference quarters."