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Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 4 2024

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 1.3% in Quarter 4 2024

CSO statistical publication, , 11am
A CSO Frontier Series Output

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has decreased by an estimated 1.3% in Quarter 4 (Q4) 2024, when compared with Q3 2024.

  • The result was driven mainly by a fall in the multinational dominated Industry sector in Q4 2024.

  • Using the early estimate for Q4 2024, GDP is estimated to have risen by 6.3% when compared with the same quarter in 2023.

  • GDP for the full year 2024 is estimated to have increased by 0.3%, when compared with 2023.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (28 January 2025) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 4 (Q4) 2024. This release is part of the CSO's Frontier Series and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2024 release, which will be published in early March 2025 when additional data sources are available to the CSO. The results will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2024.

Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Integration Division, said: “In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have contracted by 1.3% in October, November and December (Q4) 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q3 2024. This was driven by a decrease in the multinational dominated Industry sector in Q4 2024. GDP is estimated to have risen by 6.3% when compared with Q4 2023. Results for the full year 2024 compared with 2023 show moderate growth in GDP of 0.3%. 

These preliminary estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data and other indicators of activity (See Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results). Company profits may be subject to year-end adjustments which are not available in time to be included in this early estimate of GDP. Data from Q4 2024 may therefore be subject to a higher degree of revision in future QNA releases than data from the Q1, Q2 or Q3 2024 reference quarters.

Quarter-on-quarter percentage change

The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.3% in Q4 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q3 2024.

Qtr on Qtr
Q1 20219.927199084
Q2 20213.164931196
Q3 20212.299537549
Q4 2021-0.498618002
Q1 20223.661692435
Q2 20222.49139665
Q3 20222.535246838
Q4 20220.310432756
Q1 2023-5.382988822
Q2 2023-1.215586891
Q3 2023-2.227368693
Q4 2023-1.35224276
Q1 20240.59628786
Q2 2024-0.252372913
Q3 20243.513599284
Q4 2024-1.27194999
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Seasonally Adjusted

Year-on-year percentage change

In Q4 2024, GDP is estimated to have increased by 6.3% relative to Q4 2023.

Year on Year
Q1 202113.57011315
Q2 202123.04625648
Q3 202113.75312918
Q4 202115.29329422
Q1 20228.262280814
Q2 20228.155104517
Q3 20229.222388166
Q4 20228.772602356
Q1 2023-0.159405745
Q2 2023-3.906800825
Q3 2023-8.381550406
Q4 2023-9.068828444
Q1 2024-4.835699631
Q2 2024-3.172505151
Q3 20242.859176971
Q4 20246.27491614
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted

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