CSO Frontier Series outputs may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release.
Compared with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure of 6.4% in September 2023, a new breakdown by the CSO estimates that households with the highest incomes experienced higher inflation of up to 6.9%, while some lower income households had annual estimated inflation of 6.0%.
Households paying a mortgage had an estimated annual inflation of 7.8% compared with a rate of 5.6% for households that own their home outright.
Households that rent their home from a private owner had an estimated inflation rate of 5.3%, versus 5.9% for those renting from a local authority.
The annual inflation rate for urban households was 6.5%, while estimated inflation stood at 6.3% for rural households.
Households where the reference person was aged under 35 had an estimated inflation rate of 5.8%. However, when the household reference person was aged 35 to 64 it was estimated at 6.7% and was 6.1% for those aged 65 or over.
The household composition types with the highest estimated inflation rate (6.8%) were households with one adult without children and households containing two adults with more than three children, or households containing three or more adults with children.
Households with three or more adults without children are estimated to have experienced the lowest rate of inflation (5.9%).
The previous versions of this analysis on Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics were published as research papers for March 2022, June 2022 and September 2022 and are available here.
A shorter version of the research paper was published for March 2023 and is also available at the link above. This current release for September 2023 follows the same format as the March 2023 research paper:
See also: Information Note - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Explained
In the tables and commentary, the following periods are distinguished:
In the five years from September 2018 to September 2023, the CPI rose by 19.1%, with one-third of this change being concentrated in the final 12 months. Between September 2018 and September 2022 (four years), the CPI increased by 11.9% while in the 12 months from September 2022 to September 2023, the CPI rose by 6.4% (See Table 1.1).
Further details for selected CPI subindices are also shown in Table 1.1.
| Table 1.1 Change in All Items CPI and selected subindices, September 2018 to September 2023 (5 years), September 2018 to September 2022 (4 years) and September 2022 to September 2023 (1 year) | ||||||||
| 01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 04.1 Rent | 04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments | 04.5 Electricity, Gas & other Fuels | 07. Transport | 11. Restaurants & Hotels | CPI All Items | |
| Sep-2018 to Sep-2023 (5 years) | 16.3 | 21.9 | 28.7 | 74.5 | 90.1 | 19.9 | 23.3 | 19.1 |
| Sep-2018 to Sep-2022 (4 years) | 7.8 | 16.8 | 20.3 | 16.8 | 64.0 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 11.9 |
| Sep-2022 to Sep-2023 (1 year) | 7.8 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 49.5 | 15.9 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 6.4 |
| CPI All Items | 01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 04.1 Rent | 04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments | 04.5 Electricity, Gas & other Fuels | 07. Transport | 11. Restaurants & Hotels | |
| 2018 September | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2018 October | 99.9 | 100.4 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 100.3 | 99.2 | 99.9 | 99.2 |
| 2018 November | 99.4 | 100.2 | 100.4 | 101.2 | 100.3 | 98.4 | 98.1 | 98.2 |
| 2018 December | 99.4 | 100.1 | 99.3 | 101.4 | 100.7 | 97.2 | 98.5 | 98.3 |
| 2019 January | 98.7 | 100.2 | 102.5 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 96.6 | 95.5 | 99 |
| 2019 February | 99.5 | 100 | 101.9 | 102 | 101.5 | 97 | 97.1 | 99.7 |
| 2019 March | 100.3 | 100.4 | 101.7 | 102.3 | 101.8 | 98.2 | 100.2 | 100.6 |
| 2019 April | 100.7 | 100.3 | 101.7 | 102.8 | 102.2 | 99.6 | 101.5 | 101 |
| 2019 May | 100.6 | 100.5 | 102.3 | 103.1 | 102.6 | 100.1 | 99.9 | 101.5 |
| 2019 June | 100.8 | 100.1 | 103.2 | 103.6 | 102.1 | 99.2 | 101.5 | 102.3 |
| 2019 July | 100.6 | 100 | 102.8 | 104 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 102.3 | 102.3 |
| 2019 August | 101.1 | 100.1 | 102.6 | 104.5 | 102.9 | 98.9 | 102.2 | 102.6 |
| 2019 September | 100.9 | 99.2 | 103.1 | 105.6 | 103.3 | 99.2 | 99.6 | 102.3 |
| 2019 October | 100.6 | 99.3 | 103.2 | 105.8 | 103.3 | 99.7 | 99 | 101.7 |
| 2019 November | 100.5 | 99.2 | 102.9 | 105.8 | 103.7 | 99 | 98.4 | 101 |
| 2019 December | 100.7 | 99.2 | 102.4 | 105.9 | 104 | 99.1 | 100.8 | 100.8 |
| 2020 January | 100 | 99.1 | 106.4 | 105.9 | 104.4 | 99.6 | 98.5 | 100.4 |
| 2020 February | 100.6 | 99 | 105.1 | 106.1 | 104.4 | 97.7 | 100 | 101 |
| 2020 March | 101 | 98.8 | 104.5 | 105.9 | 104.8 | 95.7 | 102 | 101.5 |
| 2020 April | 100.6 | 99.1 | 105.7 | 104.3 | 104.8 | 91 | 101.2 | 102.1 |
| 2020 May | 100.1 | 99.2 | 105.8 | 103.3 | 105.1 | 88 | 97.7 | 102.3 |
| 2020 June | 100.4 | 98.6 | 105.6 | 103.2 | 105.1 | 89.5 | 99.8 | 103.8 |
| 2020 July | 100.2 | 98.8 | 106.4 | 103.3 | 105.5 | 90.5 | 97.9 | 103.2 |
| 2020 August | 100.1 | 98.4 | 105.6 | 103.5 | 105.8 | 90.4 | 97.7 | 103.5 |
| 2020 September | 99.7 | 97.7 | 104 | 103.6 | 106.2 | 90 | 96.1 | 103.5 |
| 2020 October | 99.1 | 97.7 | 104 | 103.2 | 105.8 | 92.8 | 94.8 | 101.8 |
| 2020 November | 99.4 | 97.7 | 104 | 103.2 | 105.7 | 92.8 | 95.4 | 101.9 |
| 2020 December | 99.7 | 97.6 | 102.8 | 103.5 | 106.1 | 94.1 | 96.6 | 103.4 |
| 2021 January | 99.8 | 97 | 106.7 | 103.8 | 106 | 95.1 | 96.2 | 103.6 |
| 2021 February | 100.2 | 97.1 | 106.1 | 104 | 106.4 | 96.2 | 97.3 | 104.2 |
| 2021 March | 101 | 97.9 | 106.8 | 104.9 | 106.8 | 97.6 | 99.3 | 104.7 |
| 2021 April | 101.7 | 98.4 | 108 | 105.9 | 106.8 | 99 | 100.9 | 105.1 |
| 2021 May | 101.8 | 98.1 | 107.8 | 105.9 | 107.2 | 100.7 | 101.2 | 105.4 |
| 2021 June | 102 | 98.2 | 107.4 | 105.3 | 107.6 | 101.1 | 102.9 | 105.5 |
| 2021 July | 102.4 | 98.8 | 107.8 | 105.5 | 107.6 | 103.1 | 105.6 | 106.4 |
| 2021 August | 102.9 | 98.5 | 108 | 106.9 | 108 | 108.1 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
| 2021 September | 103.4 | 98.1 | 109.1 | 109.4 | 108.5 | 109.7 | 107.1 | 106.3 |
| 2021 October | 104.1 | 98.6 | 108.3 | 110.3 | 109 | 115.9 | 109.4 | 105.9 |
| 2021 November | 104.7 | 98.7 | 107.6 | 110.8 | 109.1 | 119.7 | 110.8 | 105.8 |
| 2021 December | 105.2 | 99.2 | 105.3 | 111.5 | 109.6 | 119.9 | 114 | 106.1 |
| 2022 January | 104.8 | 99.1 | 115.7 | 111.9 | 110.1 | 121.1 | 109.8 | 105.9 |
| 2022 February | 105.8 | 100 | 114.4 | 112.8 | 110.7 | 123.9 | 112.3 | 106.5 |
| 2022 March | 107.8 | 100.9 | 114.3 | 113.7 | 110.8 | 143.2 | 117.9 | 108.5 |
| 2022 April | 108.8 | 101.8 | 113.6 | 114.9 | 111.4 | 143.7 | 119.9 | 110.3 |
| 2022 May | 109.7 | 102.5 | 115.9 | 116.5 | 111.6 | 157.9 | 117.9 | 111.5 |
| 2022 June | 111.2 | 104.8 | 116.2 | 117.3 | 112.1 | 161.6 | 123.9 | 113 |
| 2022 July | 111.7 | 106.4 | 116.3 | 118.3 | 112.3 | 159.7 | 126.1 | 114.4 |
| 2022 August | 111.9 | 107.1 | 116.7 | 119.8 | 113.8 | 160.7 | 123.6 | 114.7 |
| 2022 September | 111.9 | 107.8 | 116.8 | 120.3 | 116.8 | 164 | 119.1 | 114.4 |
| 2022 October | 113.7 | 109 | 117.8 | 120.8 | 125.3 | 200.3 | 119.2 | 113.9 |
| 2022 November | 114.1 | 109.7 | 117.3 | 121.3 | 132 | 198.3 | 119.6 | 113.9 |
| 2022 December | 113.9 | 110.8 | 116.6 | 122.1 | 133.7 | 192.8 | 116.5 | 114.6 |
| 2023 January | 113 | 111.8 | 119.5 | 122.2 | 139.7 | 193.1 | 113.2 | 113.6 |
| 2023 February | 114.7 | 113.1 | 120.1 | 123.3 | 145.7 | 191.3 | 115.9 | 116 |
| 2023 March | 116 | 114.1 | 119.9 | 123.9 | 149.9 | 189.9 | 118.2 | 118.1 |
| 2023 April | 116.6 | 115.1 | 120.6 | 124.1 | 157.2 | 187.9 | 117.2 | 119.2 |
| 2023 May | 117 | 115.5 | 121.7 | 124.8 | 160.9 | 183.4 | 115.9 | 121.1 |
| 2023 June | 118 | 115.6 | 121.4 | 125.5 | 164.2 | 183.9 | 118.8 | 122.3 |
| 2023 July | 118.2 | 115.8 | 121.6 | 126.2 | 167.9 | 183.7 | 120.4 | 122.7 |
| 2023 August | 119 | 115.9 | 121.6 | 127.5 | 172.2 | 188 | 121.2 | 123.1 |
| 2023 September | 119.1 | 116.3 | 121.9 | 128.7 | 174.5 | 190.1 | 119.9 | 123.3 |
For Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, prices rose by 64.0% in the four years between September 2018 to September 2022, followed by an increase of 15.9% in the year from September 2022 to September 2023. This means that prices for Electricity, Gas & other Fuels in September 2023 were 90.1% higher than five years earlier.
The index for Mortgage Interest Payments rose by 16.8% in the four years from September 2018 to September 2022, and by 49.5% in the year from September 2022 to September 2023. The Mortgage Interest Payments index was 74.5% higher in September 2023 than five years earlier.
The index for Rent increased by 20.3% in the four years from September 2018 to September 2022, and by 7.0% in the year from September 2022 to September 2023. The Rent index was 28.5% higher in September 2023 than five years earlier.
Looking at these CPI results, we can expect that household groups which spend higher than average proportions of their total expenditure on Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, on Mortgage Interest Payments, or on Rent to have experienced higher inflation than the overall CPI particularly in the last 12 months. The results analysing these points are presented in the second chapter Detailed Results.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) subindices were combined with detailed expenditure data from the 2015/16 Household Budget Survey (HBS) to calculate an estimated inflation rate in the five years from September 2018 to September 2023, for the following groups:
The method used is described in the Appendix of the March 2022 research paper.
The following household groups were estimated to have experienced higher inflation than the overall CPI increase of 19.1% from September 2018 to September 2023 (five years):
Figure 1.2 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 19.1% for different household groups for the five years from September 2018 to September 2023. All the household categories in the analysis had estimated inflation of 17.7% or more in the five years from September 2018 to September 2023. This ranged from 17.7% for households with three or more adults (without children) to 21.1% for households containing one adult (without children).
| Indices | Estimated difference |
|---|---|
| 1st (Lowest) Income Decile | 0.9 |
| 2nd Income Decile | 1.4 |
| 3rd Income Decile | 0.4 |
| 4th Income Decile | 0.3 |
| 5th Income Decile | 0.1 |
| 6th Income Decile | -0.3 |
| 7th Income Decile | 0 |
| 8th Income Decile | -0.6 |
| 9th Income Decile | -0.4 |
| 10th (Highest) Income Decile | -0.4 |
| Owned Outright | -1 |
| Owned with Mortgage | 0.8 |
| Rented from Local Authority | 0.7 |
| Rented from Private Owner | -0.3 |
| Urban | 0 |
| Rural | 0 |
| Reference Person aged under 35 | -0.3 |
| Reference Person aged 35 to 64 | 0 |
| Reference Person aged 65 and over | 0.4 |
| 1 adult | 2 |
| 1 adult with children | 1.2 |
| 2 adults | 0.6 |
| 2 adults with 1 to 3 children | 0.1 |
| 3 plus adults | -1.4 |
| Other households with children | -0.8 |
In the past year, from September 2022 to September 2023, the following categories of household were estimated to have experienced higher inflation than the overall CPI increase of 6.4%:
Figure 1.3 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 6.4% for different household groups in the 12 months from September 2022 to September 2023. All categories of household in the analysis had estimated annual inflation of 5.3% or more in the year to September 2023. This ranged from 5.3% for households rented from a private owner up to 7.8% for households owned with a mortgage.
| Indices | Estimated difference |
|---|---|
| 1st (Lowest) Income Decile | -0.4 |
| 2nd Income Decile | -0.2 |
| 3rd Income Decile | -0.4 |
| 4th Income Decile | -0.2 |
| 5th Income Decile | 0 |
| 6th Income Decile | -0.1 |
| 7th Income Decile | 0 |
| 8th Income Decile | 0.2 |
| 9th Income Decile | 0.1 |
| 10th (Highest) Income Decile | 0.5 |
| Owned Outright | -0.8 |
| Owned with Mortgage | 1.4 |
| Rented from Local Authority | -0.5 |
| Rented from Private Owner | -1.1 |
| Urban | 0.1 |
| Rural | -0.1 |
| Reference Person aged under 35 | -0.6 |
| Reference Person aged 35 to 64 | 0.3 |
| Reference Person aged 65 and over | -0.3 |
| 1 adult | 0.4 |
| 1 adult with children | -0.3 |
| 2 adults | 0.1 |
| 2 adults with 1 to 3 children | 0.3 |
| 3 plus adults | -0.5 |
| Other households with children | 0.4 |
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (19 December 2023) published an update to the estimates of inflation broken down by various household characteristics up to September 2023.
Commenting on this CSO Frontier Series release, Joseph Keating, Statistician in the Prices Division, said: “The increasing rate of inflation since the middle of 2021 has prompted greater interest in price change and its effects on households. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of average inflation for all private households in Ireland.
Each household has its own unique consumption pattern of goods and services and therefore its own personal experience of inflation. This release attempts to take account of those differences between households and provides an estimated breakdown of the CPI results by household characteristics up to September 2023. This analysis builds on a series of Research Papers on this topic previously published by the CSO.
The estimates in this release have been calculated by combining the CPI results from September 2023 with more detailed expenditure data from the 2015/16 Household Budget Survey. Estimates of inflation are classified by household income, composition of the household, housing tenure, age of the household reference person, and whether the household is in an urban or rural setting.
The Results
The official measure of inflation as published in the CPI shows that prices for consumer goods and services rose by 6.4% from September 2022 to September 2023. Over the same period, estimated annual rates of inflation by income decile ranged from 6.0% for lower deciles by income (first, and third) to 6.9% per annum for the highest decile (tenth).
In the 12 months to September 2023, household groups which were estimated to have experienced inflation at a higher rate than the official measure of inflation of 6.4% included:
Contributions to Inflation
Mortgage Interest Payments and Restaurants & Hotels were the largest drivers of inflation in the 12 months to September 2023. Mortgage Interest Payments price changes were responsible for more than one-fifth of the annual change in the CPI (1.4 percentage points of the 6.4% annual increase) while Restaurants & Hotels contributed another fifth of the change (1.3 percentage points).
Some key findings show that:
Inflation Trends over Five Years: March 2018 to March 2023
Price changes for the different household groups for the five years from September 2018 to September 2023 were also published today. Over that period, overall inflation as measured by the CPI was 19.1% while estimated inflation by income deciles show a range from 18.5% for higher income households to 20.5% for lower income households. The lowest income decile experienced an estimated price increase of 20.0% over those five years, while the highest income decile experienced a rise of 18.7%.
In the five years since September 2018, the estimated inflation experienced by households who owned their dwelling with a mortgage and households that rented from a local authority were higher than the CPI and stood at 19.9% and 19.8% respectively.
Urban households and rural households experienced the same rate of estimated inflation as the CPI over the five years to September 2023 (19.1%).
In the five years since September 2018, the estimated inflation experienced by households with the reference person aged 65 or over was higher than the overall CPI (19.5% versus 19.1%).
Households where the household reference person was aged under 35 had lower estimated inflation than the average CPI since September 2018 (18.8% versus 19.1%).”