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2.1    National price index

Table 2.1 – National Residential Property Price Index July 2016
    
MonthPrice Index (Jan 2005=100)Monthly % changeAnnual % change
May 201682.60.55.4
June 2016p83.41.04.9
July 2016p85.52.56.7
p: Provisional estimates

In the year to July, residential prices at a national level increased by 6.7%. This compares with an increase of 4.9% in June and an increase of 6.1% recorded in the year to July 2015.

Residential prices increased by 2.5% in the month of July. This compares with an increase of 1.0% in June and an increase of 0.8% in July of last year.

Residential property prices are currently 34.7% lower than at their highest level in April 2007 (when the national index peaked at 131.0).

Prices declined steadily over the years 2010 to 2011, followed by a bottoming out in 2012 to 2013. Since then, prices have risen again. However, the rise in prices has been uneven, with noticeable fluctuations up to the present point in time.

The trend in the volume of transactions filed with the Revenue Commissioners has been much more volatile, although it has generally followed an upward trajectory from 2010 to the present date. It is worth noting that from 2013 onwards, both prices and volume of transactions have, in general, been increasing (see Figure 2.1).

Month RPPIVolume (filed)
January 201090.6724
February 201089976
March 201087.51190
April 2010871102
May 201085.41322
June 2010851377
July 201084.81550
August 201084.31594
September 201083.31558
October 201081.71277
November 2010801401
December 201078.61175
January 201178.21148
February 201176.8991
March 201174.81127
April 201173.8942
May 201172.71073
June 201171.51165
July 201170.71294
August 201169.41246
September 201167.91402
October 2011671253
November 201165.61458
December 201164.11517
January 201262.61274
February 201261.21183
March 201261.61204
April 201260.51090
May 201260.51412
June 201260.51317
July 2012611735
August 201260.91784
September 201261.41573
October 201261.41839
November 201261.32870
December 201261.71825
January 201360.82179
February 201360.21272
March 201359.71291
April 201359.81471
May 201359.81680
June 201361.51571
July 201363.32228
August 201364.42092
September 201365.52110
October 201365.82311
November 201366.22402
December 201367.22458
January 201466.92603
February 201466.81718
March 201467.32074
April 201468.72101
May 201470.52343
June 2014732367
July 201475.53118
August 201476.92748
September 201478.43200
October 201479.23213
November 201479.32914
December 201478.73927
January 201578.43931
February 201577.82827
March 201577.62986
April 201577.72661
May 201578.42688
June 201579.52803
July 201580.13522
August 201581.13094
September 201581.73390
October 201582.73314
November 201582.63244
December 201582.33609
January 201682.82955
February 2016822762
March 201681.92697
April 201682.22698
May 201682.62881
June 201683.42944
July 201685.53197

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2.2     National house and apartment price trends

House prices increased 6.8% in the twelve months to July 2016. Apartment prices increased 7.4% over the same period.

Overall house prices in July 2016 are 32.8% lower than their high point in 2007, with apartments 43.0% lower than at their peak.

House prices climbed 2.7% in the month of July and are 44.0% higher than the market low point in early 2013. The price of apartments nationally increased 0.3% in July and is 60.4% higher than the trough in June 2012.

Apartment prices responded more rapidly to changing market conditions than house prices over the past ten years. Apartment prices fell more rapidly than house prices in 2009 and 2012 and recovered more rapidly between late 2014 and early 2015 (see Figure 2.2).

X-axis labelHousesApartments
January 200613.79.3
February 20061310
March 200612.910.7
April 200613.612.5
May 200615.113.8
June 200616.115.4
July 200616.816.6
August 200617.517.2
September 200617.317.3
October 200615.715.8
November 200614.714.9
December 200614.713.6
January 200714.913.8
February 20071513.7
March 200714.712.2
April 200713.99.7
May 200710.98.8
June 20078.67.2
July 20076.55.4
August 20073.93.1
September 20073.40.8
October 20072.3-0.2
November 20072.3-1.2
December 20070.7-1.8
January 2008-0.8-3.5
February 2008-2.2-4.6
March 2008-3.6-3.9
April 2008-4.9-4.4
May 2008-5.1-6.7
June 2008-5.7-7.7
July 2008-6.6-8.4
August 2008-7.2-9.7
September 2008-8.5-10.7
October 2008-9.7-13.9
November 2008-11.2-16
December 2008-12.3-18.1
January 2009-13.7-20.2
February 2009-15.2-22.8
March 2009-16.6-24.9
April 2009-17.8-26.7
May 2009-19.2-27.1
June 2009-19.8-28
July 2009-20.4-28.7
August 2009-20.5-29.4
September 2009-19.1-30.1
October 2009-18.7-28.7
November 2009-17.7-27.2
December 2009-17.2-26.3
January 2010-16-24.6
February 2010-15.5-21.5
March 2010-14.6-20.3
April 2010-13.2-17
May 2010-12.7-16.1
June 2010-11.7-14.6
July 2010-10.5-13.9
August 2010-10.1-11.9
September 2010-11.7-10.7
October 2010-12.3-11
November 2010-13.7-12
December 2010-14.1-12.2
January 2011-13.9-11.2
February 2011-13.6-13.1
March 2011-14.5-13.5
April 2011-15.2-14.1
May 2011-14.9-14.3
June 2011-15.8-15.7
July 2011-16.6-15.9
August 2011-17.8-17.6
September 2011-18.3-19.6
October 2011-17.8-20.3
November 2011-17.9-20.5
December 2011-18.4-20.7
January 2012-19.7-22.9
February 2012-20.3-23.8
March 2012-17.3-25
April 2012-17.7-25.8
May 2012-16.5-25.4
June 2012-15.1-24.7
July 2012-13.5-22.9
August 2012-12-21.1
September 2012-9.5-17.4
October 2012-8.3-13.2
November 2012-6.6-10.3
December 2012-3.6-7.7
January 2013-2.9-3.2
February 2013-1.40.8
March 2013-3.34.7
April 2013-1.16.1
May 2013-1.18
June 20131.810.1
July 20133.910
August 2013610.5
September 20137.110
October 20137.48.9
November 201389.1
December 20139.19.2
January 201410.59
February 201411.59.3
March 201413.411.3
April 201415.613.4
May 201418.417.2
June 201418.920
July 201419.622.5
August 201419.426.1
September 201419.430.6
October 201420.232.2
November 201419.932
December 201417.231.1
January 201517.130.1
February 201516.426.5
March 201515.721.3
April 201513.218.3
May 201511.614.2
June 20159.112.1
July 20155.810.1
August 20155.57.7
September 20154.34.8
October 20154.54.8
November 20154.62.1
December 201551.2
January 201661
February 20165.72.1
March 20165.44
April 20165.46
May 20164.97.2
June 20164.68
July 20166.87.4

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2.3    Volume of sales no longer increasing; growth in market value slowing

After 2011, the annual volume of transactions began to increase from its lowest point. A total of 36,785 filings were recorded for household market purchases in the 12 months to July 2016, compared with 14,745 in the 12 months to July 2011. After significant growth in volume of house purchases in the years to July 2013, 2014 and 2015 (34.1%, 28.3% and 35.1% respectively), the 12 months to July 2016 saw a decrease of 1.7% in the total number of purchases (see Figure 2.3). 

X-axis labelvolumevalue (billion)
2011147453.583
2012160913.384
2013215834.344
2014276975.83
2015374208.132
2016367858.497

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2.4    Apartments are making up more of the market

From 2013 onwards, apartments have increased their share of the household residential property market. In 2012 apartments accounted for 10.7% of the market in terms of transaction volume and 8.6% of the market in terms of transaction value, according to stamp duty returns filed that year. By 2015, the market share of apartments had increased to 15.6% by volume and 13.7% by value. In the first seven months of 2016 the share by volume remained at 15.6% and decreased slightly to 13.4% by value (see Figure 2.4).

YearVolumeValue
201010.18.7
201110.18.7
201210.78.6
201313.911.1
201414.912.4
201515.613.7
2016*15.613.4

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2.5     First-time buyers losing market share but paying more

First-time buyer owner-occupiers formed a decreasing proportion of the market over the period 2010 to 2015. In 2010, they represented 53.1% of all household market transactions filed. By 2015, first-time buyers' share fell to just 24.4% of the market. In the first seven months of 2016, first-time buyers accounted for 24.6% of household market purchases. The corresponding proportions for the value of the first-time buyer market were 48.1%, 22.5% and 23.0% respectively (see Figure 2.5).

YearVolumeValue
201053.148.1
201136.533
201232.429
201329.926
201426.424
201524.422.5
2016*24.623

Throughout the period 2010 to 2015, former-owner-occupiers have consistently paid the most on average for housing, followed by first-time buyers. Non-occupier households have consistently paid the least. However, the difference in average spend between former owner-occupiers and first-time buyers has narrowed over the period. In 2010, former owner-occupiers spent €92,257 more on average than first-time buyers. By 2015, this difference had declined to just €55,118 on average. In the first seven months of 2016 the difference between the two types of owner-occupiers was €51,405 (see Figure 2.6).

YearFirst-time buyersFormer owner-occupiersNon-occupiers
2010236817329074192738
2011206105270413167500
2012182386241318145287
2013179666246218146437
2014195758254448155986
2015203553258671158679
2016*216178267583168810

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2.6    New dwelling sales a fraction of the market

The residential property market remains dominated by sales of existing dwellings. New dwelling purchases make up only a very small number of dwelling transactions. In 2011 a record low of just 1,293 stamp duty returns were filed with the Revenue Commissioners for new dwellings.  In the same year, 13,748 stamp duty returns were filed for existing dwellings.

By 2015, the number of new dwellings returns filed had increased to 2,489. However, these were still dwarfed by the figure of 35,580 existing dwelling returns filed. The market share of new dwellings purchased almost halved from 2010 to 2015, going from 12.8% to 6.5% over the period. In the first seven months of 2016, 1,464 new dwelling returns were filed, compared to 18,670 existing dwelling returns (see Table 2.2).

Table 2.2 – Volume of household market transactions by Dwelling Status, 2010 to 2016
Dwelling Status2010201120122013201420152016*
New1,9451,2931,4461,7142,3272,4891,464
Existing13,30113,32317,66021,35129,99935,58018,670
All15,24614,61619,10623,06532,32638,06920,134
* Up to July

 

From 2010 to 2014, the average price of a new dwelling has been less than that of an existing dwelling. However, in 2015 this trend reversed, with a new dwelling costing more than existing dwelling for the first time in the reference period. In the year to July the average new dwelling cost €264,822 and the average existing dwelling costing €227,938 (see Figure 2.7).

YearExistingNew
2010266220228438
2011230188205733
2012205650181239
2013209563166418
2014217731186435
2015220128230756
2016*227938264822

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2.7     Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown most expensive administrative area

According to stamp duty filings, the most expensive place nationwide to buy a house is the Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown administrative area of Co. Dublin. In 2015 households paid an average of €568,980 to buy a house in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown. Second and third most expensive in 2015 were the Dublin City and Fingal administrative areas, where the average house price was €389,022 and €336,310 respectively. Conversely, the least expensive place to buy a house in 2015 was Co. Longford, where the average price paid was just €79,660. The second and third least expensive places were Co. Roscommon and Co. Leitrim, with average prices of €94,105 and €94,572 respectively (see Figure 2.8). The national average house price in 2015 was €225,783.

This map is © Ordnance Survey Ireland. All rights reserved. License number 01/05/001.

 

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