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Following the publication of the fifth Review of the Quality of Crime Statistics in October 2023, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has lifted the 'Under Reservation' categorisation around Recorded Crime Statistics. This is possible because An Garda Síochána have introduced a range of quality measures over the last number of years which have resulted in sustained improvement in the quality of the underlying crime data. These changes give a level of assurance to users that they can rely on Recorded Crime Statistics.
For further information see our Lifting of Under Reservation categorisation for Recorded Crime Statistics FAQ page.
Re-offending statistics measure the level of recorded re-offending by offenders that were placed under the management of the Probation Service. The re-offending rate indicates the percentage of people who were reconvicted for a crime incident that was recorded within a defined period (re-offence window) following the commencement of their Probation, Community Service or Post Release Supervision Order. The conviction must be within two years of the date that incident was recorded.
A three-year period is considered for the 2017 cohort, a two-year period for the 2018 cohort and a one-year period for the 2019 cohort. For example, if an offender was sentenced to Probation on December 31st, 2019 and they committed an offence on December 31st, 2020 for which a conviction was obtained on or before December 31st, 2022 they would be included as a re-offender.
It is necessary to strike a balance between allowing sufficient time for the crime incident to progress through the criminal justice system and providing timely data for users.
To calculate the rate of re-offending it is necessary to match records from data collated by the Irish Probation Service with the Garda PULSE data.
The matching process results in the selection of a PULSE identifier (or identifiers) for each subject. Convictions data is then examined to determine if individuals who were placed under the supervision of the Probation Service had any subsequent convictions.
Due to the absence of a common identification process in the Irish Criminal Justice system the matching process involves the comparison of individual records. In the region of 95% of all matches can be made automatically using common characteristics that have been recorded by each authority.
Due to data quality issues and limitations on the reliability of some information provided to law enforcement authorities, the remaining 5% of matches require manual examination. There are clear guidelines in place in relation to the acceptance or rejection of matches, but a certain level of subjectivity is inevitable in the absence of a unique identifier.
It is not possible to find a match for all Probation records in the Garda PULSE dataset. Among the reasons why this maybe the case are: the subjects name is a common one, the subject provided incorrect details to law enforcement officials or data quality issues. In the case of the 2014 cohort, 22 records were not included in the analysis because of a technical issue in the transfer of data. The 22 records related to individuals sentenced in relation to high volume crimes. CSO guidelines state that a minimum of 95% of records must be matched.
The Probation and Prison publications were developed separately. They were designed primarily to meet the information needs of the Irish Probation Service and the Irish Prison Service. The needs of these organisations are broadly similar but there are some differences. For example, convictions must be secured within 24 months of the date that the crime incident was reported to be included in the calculation of the Probation Re-offending rate. Certain offences such as traffic offences have historically not been included in the calculation of the rate. The exact list of exclusions differs somewhat between the publications.
It is also important to bear in mind that the characteristics of the cohorts under consideration also differs. The prison cohort tend to have committed more serious offences than their probation counterparts. Due to the differences discussed it is not possible to make direct comparisons.
The definitions used in re-offending studies are not standardised internationally. The period after the Probation Order during which re-offences are considered varies across jurisdictions. There are also variations as to what constitutes a re-offence. In some countries a custodial sentence is necessary whereas others consider rearrest to be an appropriate measure.
It is extremely difficult to compare re-offending rates across jurisdictions due to differences in definitions, data quality, legal systems, legal culture and justice policy. Controlling for these differences would be a complex, but essential, process to draw meaningful conclusions from comparisons.
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