Following the publication of the fifth Review of the Quality of Crime Statistics in October 2023, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has lifted the 'Under Reservation' categorisation around Recorded Crime Statistics. This is possible because An Garda Síochána have introduced a range of quality measures over the last number of years which have resulted in sustained improvement in the quality of the underlying crime data. These changes give a level of assurance to users that they can rely on Recorded Crime Statistics.
For further information see our Lifting of Under Reservation categorisation for Recorded Crime Statistics FAQ page.
The one-year probation re-offending rate for 2019 was 25%, three percentage points less than the same measure for 2018 (28%). This was the lowest rate of re-offending within one year since 2008.
Under one-third (30%) of young male adults (aged under 25 years) who received probation orders in 2019 re-offended within a year of receiving probation. In comparison, slightly more young adult females (33%) who received probation orders re-offended during the same period.
There was a strong reduction between 2018 and 2019 in the re-offending rate of persons serving probation for offences related to Burglary. In 2019, 24% were linked to a re-offence within one year of receiving probation compared with 33% in 2018.
Regionally, the highest level of re-offending (29%) involved probationers from the South-West (Kerry and Cork) region. In the Dublin region, where the highest number of probationers lived (1,978 of 5,644), 23% of probationers re-offended within a year.
The highest number of probation orders were issued in 2019 to persons who committed offences related to Road & Traffic offences (987 of 5,644). Just under one-fifth (18%) of these persons were convicted of a re-offence within a year of receiving their probation.
During a longer period (three-years) after receiving a probation order in 2017, nearly half (47%) of persons committed at least one offence for which they received a conviction. The second offence may have been in different crime category to their first offence.
The Probation Re-offending Statistics publication provides information on the level of recorded re-offending by persons placed under the management of the Probation Service. The information in this publication primarily relates to persons who entered Probation Service supervision in 20191.
The probation re-offending rate is the percentage of persons issued with a probation order during a reference year who were convicted of any crime incident that occurred within one, two or three years of the date of their probation sentence. The resulting conviction relating to the incident must then be obtained within two years of the date when the incident was recorded.
For example, if an offender was sentenced to probation on December 31st, 2016, and they committed an offence on December 31st, 2019, for which a conviction was obtained on or before December 31st, 2021, they would be classed as a re-offender.
| Within 12 months | Within 24 months | Within 36 months | |
| 2008 | 36 | 47 | 55 |
| 2009 | 34 | 46 | 53 |
| 2010 | 33 | 42 | 48 |
| 2011 | 30 | 41 | 47 |
| 2012 | 30 | 40 | 47 |
| 2013 | 28 | 39 | 45 |
| 2014 | 29 | 41 | 47 |
| 2015 | 30 | 40 | 49 |
| 2016 | 31 | 43 | 48 |
| 2017 | 29 | 41 | 47 |
| 2018 | 28 | 39 | |
| 2019 | 25 |
1 To provide the timeliest measures of re-offending, statistics relating to one year measures of re-offending for individuals who received probation orders in 2019 are mainly focused on in this publication, allowing the analysis to come forward to cover the most recent data available (one year for re-offence from 2019 and a further two years allowed for any resulting court conviction).
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Statistician's Comment
Commenting on the release, Felix Coleman, Statistician in the Crime and Criminal Justice Division, said: "Today’s publication provides annual estimates of the re-offending rates for probationers who received probation orders up to and including 2019. Additional insights are also provided in relation to the re-offenders age, sex, offence, and re-offence types. The most recent reference year included in this publication is 2019 because a minimum of three years is needed to establish a re-offending rate: one year for potential re-offences to take place, and two years for re-conviction.
Re-Offending Rates
Overall, probation re-offending estimates indicate a decline in re-offending by probationers between 2016 and 2019. In addition, the one-year re-offending rate for 2019 (25%) was the lowest re-offending rate measured since 2008 when the first estimates of probation re-offending were calculated. The year-on-year reduction in re-offending between 2018 and 2019 has been mostly due to a reduction in the re-offending of persons who received probation orders for offences relating to Burglary or Damage to Property. In both these groups, 24% of probationers re-offended in 2019 compared with 33% for Burglary and 36% for Theft in 2018. The analysis also shows that the re-offending levels amongst adult males under the age of 25 fell by six percentage points between 2018 (36%) and 2019 (30%). Please see Probation Re-Offending Statistics 2018 for further information. It is also worth noting that when a person re-offends, it may be for an offence in a different crime category to the one they originally received a conviction for.
Re-Offending Within One Year
The highest levels of re-offending from persons who received probation in 2019 was among young adults. A little less than one-third (30%) of males and a third (33%) of females under the age of 25 re-offended within a year. In contrast, 14% of males or females aged over 45 re-offended in the same period after receiving probation, although this age group accounted for just 798 (14%) of the total 5,644 persons who received probation during 2019.
Re-Offending Within Three Years
The three-year probation re-offending estimates provide a more comprehensive estimate of the levels of re-offending. To calculate this rate, the CSO needs a minimum of three years to establish a re-offending incident and a further two years to allow for the associated court conviction to elapse. In 2017, just under half (47%) of probationers re-offended within three years of receiving their probation order. This was one percentage point down on 2016 (48%) and eight percentage points less than 2008 levels when the three-year re-offending rate was more than half (55%).
Regional Differences
There was a significant difference in the re-offending rates regionally ranging from just under a fifth (18%) in the West (consisting of Galway, Mayo, and Roscommon), to almost a third (29%) in the South-West region (consisting of Cork and Kerry). At county level, Roscommon (11%) and Mayo (12%) had the lowest one-year re-offending rate while Kerry (39%) had the highest re-offending levels among people who were issued with probation in 2019."