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Labour Market Insight Bulletin

Series 4

CSO statistical release, , 11am

Supplementary Labour Market Analysis Q3 2020

Key Findings

  • Between Quarter 1 (Q1) and Quarter 3 (Q3) 2020, the number of active employments decreased by 6.2%

  • The number of active employments decreased in 10 of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3 with the largest rate of decline recorded in the Accommodation & food services sector (-21.3%)

  • Both the Industry and Construction sectors recorded increases of 2.4% between Q1 and Q3

  • The sectors showing the largest increases in employments from Q2 to Q3 were the Accommodation & food services sector (102.0%) and the Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & other service activities sector (47.7%)
  • Average weekly earnings, including Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) and Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) payments where applicable, decreased by 2.7% across all employments between Q2 and Q3 2020

  • The sectors showing the largest quarterly percentage decreases in average weekly earnings between Q2 and Q3 were the Arts, entertainment, recreation & other service activities sector (-10.4%) and the Financial, insurance & real estate sector (-3.6%)

  • The largest quarterly percentage increases in average weekly earnings between Q2 and Q3 were seen in the Construction sector (10.2%) and the Education sector (3.3%)

  • Average weekly earnings increased in seven of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3 with the largest rate of increase recorded in the Accommodation & food services sector (8.7%)

  • Average weekly earnings decreased in six of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3 with the largest rate of decrease recorded in the Financial, insurance & real estate sector (-9.8%)

  • For employments that were active in both Q1 and Q3, average weekly earnings decreased by 3.9% across all employments, while employments that were active in both Q2 and Q3 saw average weekly earnings increase by 2.1% across all sectors

Introduction

This bulletin is the fourth in a series of outputs designed to provide high-level supplementary labour market analysis to users alongside the standard labour market outputs and metrics. The data used is sourced from administrative datasets, namely Revenue's employee level tax data (PMOD) as well as data provided from Revenue in relation to the TWSS. This fourth bulletin is specifically designed to complement the standard Earnings & Labour Costs (ELC) results for Q3 2020. 

The analysis in this bulletin relates to those employees working in enterprises with three or more employees in the NACE Rev 2 (see background notes) Industrial Sectors B–S inclusive.

Bulletin 2 of the series, published on 08 September 2020, included analysis of the impact of the TWSS for Quarter 2. As of the 01 September 2020, the TWSS has been replaced by the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS). (See Revenue website for more information on the EWSS scheme). We are currently analysing initial data in relation to the EWSS and intend to include analysis of both the TWSS and EWSS for Quarter 3 in a later publication.

Please Note: The data included in this bulletin are subject to revision as more information relating to employments and earnings for Q3 2020 are lodged by employers with the Revenue Commissioners and the data is subsequently made available to the CSO for statistical analysis purposes.

Percentage change in employment 

Comparing Q1 and Q3, the number of active employments decreased by 6.2%. A decrease of 13.5% between Q1 and Q2 was followed by an increase in active employments of 8.4% between Q2 and Q3. See Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2.

The number of active employments decreased in 10 of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3. The largest rate of decrease was recorded in the Accommodation & food service sector (-21.3%) where a decrease of 61.0% between Q1 and Q2 was followed by an increase in active employments of 102.0% between Q2 and Q3. See Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2.

The number of active employments increased in three of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3. Both the Industry and Construction sectors recorded increases of 2.4% between Q1 and Q3. In both sectors, a decrease in active employments between Q1 and Q2 (-3.0% and -6.6% respectively) was followed by increases in active employments between Q2 and Q3 (5.5% and 9.7% respectively). See Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2.

Note: An active employment is one that was active at any point in the quarter, not active throughout the quarter.

Change in employment Q1 - Q3
Construction2.43945472104599
Industry2.38787392418747
Health & social0.146874248938489
Information & communication-1.1313769751693
Transportation-5.48944470734889
Professional & technical-5.54828791674982
Public admin & defence-5.85778876807641
Wholesale & retail-5.88934683936373
All sectors-6.22392696970133
Education-8.64681777909038
Financial & real estate-9.11082659509643
Arts & entertainment-10.1801359109268
Admin & support service-14.065159180544
Accommodation & food-21.34310076789
Change in employment Q1 - Q2Change in employment Q2 - Q3
Industry-2.96437023510245.51575145362331
Construction-6.629336602035519.71267740106814
Wholesale & retail-11.21688821279416.0006247429121
Transportation-8.927850044437263.77547399371387
Accommodation & food-61.0670372638621102.031630023111
Information & communication-4.114672686230253.11131618844933
Financial & real estate-6.78365295740704-2.49652953749201
Professional & technical-8.747773515738763.50620003725692
Admin & support service-17.08264842039233.63915294249508
Public admin & defence-5.72020800756391-0.145928154490982
Education-5.95835794447725-2.85879720499332
Health & social-3.965604721339494.28229798120239
Arts & entertainment-39.196040126083247.7204186624091
All sectors-13.46762733625788.37108719381228
Show Table: Table 1 Percentage change in employment by sector Q1 - Q3 2020

Percentage change in earnings 

When considering the change in earnings, it should be noted that there may be a compositional effect due to the significant changes in the number of active employments in certain sectors. The composition of the labour market in Q3 2020 was very different to the composition of the labour market in previous quarters, with significant changes in the number of employments in certain sectors across the three quarters of 2020. The changes in average weekly earnings in any sector may be impacted to some degree by those employments that have left/joined the sector having lower/higher average earnings than those employments that remained in the sector in quarters being analysed.

Any payments related to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) scheme are not included in this analysis. Such payments are paid by the Department of Social Protection (DSP) to a person who has lost income from employment and where no attachment in the form of an employment contract is maintained between the employer and employee. Payments related to the TWSS and EWSS have been included in earnings for this analysis.

Earnings included in this analysis are gross earnings, before deductions such as income tax, and include any taxable benefit in kind.

Between Q1 and Q3, average weekly earnings increased by 0.1% across all employments. An increase of 2.9% between Q1 and Q2 was followed by a decrease in average weekly earnings of 2.7% between Q2 and Q3. See Table 2 and Figures 3 and 4.

Average weekly earnings increased in seven of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3. The largest rate of increase was recorded in the Accommodation & food services sector (8.7%) where an increase of 11.6% between Q1 and Q2 was followed by a decrease in average weekly earnings of 2.6% between Q2 and Q3. See Table 2 and Figures 3 and 4.

Average weekly earnings decreased in six of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3. The largest rate of decrease was recorded in the Financial, insurance & real estate sector (-9.8%) where a decrease of 6.4% between Q1 and Q2 was followed by a further decrease in average weekly earnings of 3.6% between Q2 and Q3. See Table 2 and Figures 3 and 4.

Change in earnings Q1 - Q3
Accommodation & food8.73375551487141
Education8.19165804894864
Construction3.11704312114989
Arts & entertainment2.35253038866945
Public admin & defence2.01011541953053
Wholesale & retail1.47824910357892
Health & social0.316816988240665
All sectors0.0584886532012829
Transportation-1.3764890866935
Information & communication-2.21354896574919
Admin & support service-3.50103275302448
Professional & technical-4.95105573982688
Industry-7.08260675615394
Financial & real estate-9.75811291543085
Change in earnings Q1 - Q2Change in earnings Q2 - Q3
Industry-5.60140313881341-1.56909495118729
Construction-6.4572210814510610.2351718788872
Wholesale & retail1.8875583519383-0.401726427622839
Transportation0.544999067238749-1.91107282486249
Accommodation & food11.5969867042828-2.56568862114406
Information & communication-4.950529738214022.87953290526144
Financial & real estate-6.36073444607772-3.62815582678482
Professional & technical-3.9216082841194-1.07146616145669
Admin & support service-4.246090292121560.778096206588397
Public admin & defence2.57100246401245-0.546828081044348
Education4.705963460875553.3290315783929
Health & social0.904783651101715-0.582694537945849
Arts & entertainment14.1981101193724-10.3728334193277
All sectors2.85684577192025-2.72063283461382
Show Table: Table 2 Percentage change in earnings by sector Q1 - Q3 2020

Percentage change in earnings for employments active in more than one quarter

To provide further context, and taking into consideration the compositional effect mentioned above, we have also prepared analysis of earnings for employments that were active in more than one quarter. For each set of quarters being analysed, a matched dataset was created of all employments that were active in both quarters i.e.;

  • Q1 v Q3: employments that were active in both Q1 2020 and Q3 2020
  • Q1 v Q2: employments that were active in both Q1 2020 and Q2 2020
  • Q2 v Q3: employments that were active in both Q2 2020 and Q3 2020

For employments that were active in both Q1 and Q3, average weekly earnings decreased by 3.9% across all employments between Q1 and Q3. Average weekly earnings decreased in 10 of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q3. The largest rate of decrease was recorded in the Administrative & support services sector (-13.2%). Over the same period and for the same cohort of employments average weekly earnings increased in three of the 13 economic sectors. The largest rate of increase was recorded in the Construction sector (3.2%). See Table 3 and Figures 5 and 6.

For employments that were active in both Q1 and Q2, average weekly earnings decreased by 5.8% across all employments between Q1 and Q2. Average weekly earnings decreased in 12 of the 13 economic sectors between Q1 and Q2. The largest rate of decrease was recorded in the Administrative & support services sector (-14.9%). Public administration & defence was the only sector to show an increase in average weekly earnings (+1.1%) over the same period and for the same cohort of employments. See Table 3 and Figures 5 and 6.

For employments that were active in both Q2 and Q3, average weekly earnings increased by 2.1% across all employments between Q2 and Q3. Average weekly earnings increased in nine of the 13 economic sectors between Q2 and Q3. The largest rate of increase was recorded in the Construction sector (15.2%). Over the same period and for the same cohort of employments average weekly earnings decreased in four of the 13 economic sectors. The largest rate of decrease was recorded in the Public administration & defence sector (-1.1%). See Table 3 and Figures 5 and 6.

Change in earnings Q1 - Q3
Construction3.16106502576885
Accommodation & food0.402220255812091
Public admin & defence0.276829572891524
Education-0.494621590472533
Information & communication-0.534686324185174
Health & social-1.05410141276969
Wholesale & retail-1.95891140271209
Transportation-3.23536084293312
All sectors-3.94524194315048
Arts & entertainment-5.42331099298976
Industry-6.42984328732624
Professional & technical-7.77164042871527
Financial & real estate-11.8815734989648
Admin & support service-13.2356396463241
Change in earnings Q1 - Q2Change in earnings Q2 - Q3
Industry-6.507878632596541.27335922246776
Construction-11.312123906348715.2214022140222
Wholesale & retail-4.864705242380433.36642421859641
Transportation-4.417210038773714.19480694201535
Accommodation & food-14.030188330871510.5607452180966
Information & communication-6.024631923026956.10383707461548
Financial & real estate-9.47761069200276-0.911358136861329
Professional & technical-9.03884134298881.82025974025974
Admin & support service-14.92623107875071.85847240515857
Public admin & defence1.11666823943883-1.0865419308283
Education-0.472900627135064-0.89434251666568
Health & social-1.40623490609-0.16010821106679
Arts & entertainment-10.66315252508084.48589458054938
All sectors-5.795967007033212.05407928844334
Show Table: Table 3 Percentage change in earnings by sector Q1 - Q2, Q2 - Q3 and Q1 - Q3 2020 for employments that were active in both quarters

Background Notes

Earnings & Labour Costs (ELC)

The ELC, which is being published today with Preliminary results for Q3 2020 and Final results for Q2 2020, is the official source of short-term earnings and labour cost estimates for Ireland. The ELC release is published based on data collected by the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey (EHECS). The EHECS collects data from enterprises with three or more employees in the NACE Rev 2 Industrial Sectors B–S inclusive.

Preliminary ELC estimates for Q3 2020 have been negatively impacted by lower than usual response rates and the inability of some businesses to respond to the survey questionnaire, submit returns or accurately record payments under the TWSS. The sectors particularly impacted by low rates of survey response were Construction, Transportation & storage and Accommodation & food services. Caution is therefore advised in relation to the preliminary estimates published today. Please see the Technical Note – Impact of COVID-19 on the Earnings and Labour Costs release - updated Quarter 3 2020 for more information.

Labour Force Survey (LFS)

The LFS, which was published on 17 November for Q3 2020, is the official source of employment estimates for Ireland. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) are obliged to follow specific methodology for the LFS including how a person is classified as employed, unemployed or economically inactive (not in the labour force) using the ILO concepts and definitions. The ILO criteria do not fully capture the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market – see Information Note on the implications of COVID-19 on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The Information Note highlights the challenges in the application of the ILO concepts following the introduction of the COVID-19 income support payments.

COVID-19 income support schemes

The CSO has been working with and will continue to collaborate with both the Department of Social Protection (DSP) and the Revenue Commissioners to meet user needs for availability of detailed aggregates for the recipients of both the PUP and the TWSS/ EWSS respectively. Tables providing breakdowns of the numbers benefitting from the PUP and the TWSS and the numbers of persons on the Live Register for each week since March 2020 by sex, age group, county and nationality grouping are available at the following link: StatBank. This link also contains tables for the corresponding numbers included on the Live Register for each week as well as a total number of persons with overlaps removed who are either on the Live Register for each week or who were benefitting from either the PUP or the TWSS up to 31 August 2020.

The CSO has not yet disseminated EWSS data but will continue to work with the Revenue Commissioners to make this data available to users as soon as possible. The final update to the number of persons benefitting from the TWSS is included in the Statbank tables linked above. No further TWSS updates will be provided given that the TWSS scheme is now closed. 

Nace Classification

NACE Rev.2 is the latest classification system for economic activities. See NACE coder on CSO.ie.

 

For further COVID-19 related information go to the CSO COVID-19 Information Hub

Please Note: The Labour Market and Earnings Division of the CSO is compiling a list of users who have registered to be kept informed in relation to relevant announcements from the CSO relating to Labour Market and Earnings, including publication plans from the Division. If you haven't already done so you can register your email address by sending an email to labour@cso.ie asking to be included on this user list.

Further Information

Contact
E-mail: earnings@cso.ie
Morgan O' Donnell
(+353) 85 804 9155
Louise Egan
(+353) 21 4535951