Key Findings:
This is the thirteenth publication in our new series of information bulletins produced by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), that aim to provide insights into those who have either died from or contracted COVID-19, by using data from the Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting (CIDR) provided to the CSO by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre and data from the HSE’s Swiftcare (A2i) and COVID Care Tracker (CCT) systems. This Bulletin covers the period from 28 February to 02 October 2020.
A Six-Month Review of the Virus in Ireland
By analysing the six months of summaries of COVID-19 confirmed cases since March in Table A, we can see the difference in the profile of people infected over this time. Women still make up the majority of confirmed cases, but in recent months this difference has lessened with men accounting for 52% of cases in August and 49% of all cases in September.
The percentage of cases amongst younger age groups has also increased in more recent months with confirmed case rates in people aged under 24 at 34% in September compared with less than 10% in March and April. A different trend can be seen in the over 80s age group, which have accounted for 2% of cases since July compared with 20% in April.
| Month | 0-14 years | 15-24 years | 25-44 years | 45-64 years | 65-79 years | 80 years and over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 150 | 685 | 3506 | 3398 | 1003 | 706<8 |
| April | 210 | 877 | 4022 | 3555 | 1530 | 2540 |
| May | 113 | 282 | 1057 | 752 | 253 | 338 |
| June | 28 | 55 | 144 | 86 | 31 | 46 |
| July | 82 | 140 | 322 | 160 | 46 | 13 |
| August | 350 | 712 | 1198 | 708 | 152 | 58 |
| September | 912 | 2008 | 2820 | 1979 | 578 | 200 |
The incidence levels of the virus decreased in the Dublin region over the summer months, but made up 48% of cases in September, while the percentage of cases in the Midlands, Mid East and Mid West decreased in September following increases in August. The Border, West and South West regions have also seen increases in September.
Health care workers made up 7% of all confirmed cases in September and the CSO notes that the number of health care workers affected by the virus has been falling each month since this group of people accounted for 36% of all cases in April.
Looking at analysis of the Electoral Districts (ED) of confirmed cases we can see that since the number of cases started to rise again in July there has been an increase in cases in areas where median household income is lower, there is higher working age welfare dependency and a large proportion (>25%) of the population live in rental accommodation. However, September has seen an increase of confirmed cases in areas of lower working age welfare dependency and where a smaller proportion (<15%) of the population live in rental accommodation.
The overall mortality rate is 41 per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was highest in April at 74 per 1,000 confirmed cases but has been less than five in August and September. The overall hospitalisation rate is 120 people per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was highest in March at 192 per 1,000 confirmed cases and is 40 in September. The overall ICU admission rate is 13 per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was also highest in March at 28 per 1,000 confirmed case and is four people per 1,000 cases in August and three per 1,000 in September. (Note: It is important to note that there is time lag between onset of symptoms and hospital admission or death. Also note that September rates are provisional).
Referrals and Testing
There were 76,899 referrals for community testing where a valid reservation was recorded in the week ending 02 October. Referrals for testing have fallen in the last two weeks in particular among the 0 – 14 age group, which has fallen to 10,774 from 19,209 in the week ending 18 September. Some 60% of referrals were from GPs in the week ending 02 October.
Testing numbers cannot be directly compared with referrals for community testing; there is a significant number of tests completed in hospitals as well as a time lag between referral and test completion. A number of referrals also do not result in a test being completed. However weekly testing numbers from HSE labs and hospitals show that testing hit its highest level of 90,697 tests in week ending 25 September. This fell to 86,669 in the week ending 02 October, still the second highest week since testing began. The positivity rate in the week ending 02 October was 3.2% up from 2.5% the previous week.
| Week Ending | Tests Completed | Positivity Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2020 | 14781 | 8.93714904268994 |
| 03/04/2020 | 12988 | 23.2445334154604 |
| 10/04/2020 | 28824 | 15.2303635859006 |
| 17/04/2020 | 36449 | 18.3187467420231 |
| 24/04/2020 | 25719 | 16.2642404448073 |
| 01/05/2020 | 49464 | 6.43902636260715 |
| 08/05/2020 | 56495 | 3.44278254712806 |
| 15/05/2020 | 42259 | 3.22061572682742 |
| 22/05/2020 | 35436 | 2.00361214584039 |
| 29/05/2020 | 26441 | 1.82670852085776 |
| 05/06/2020 | 19828 | 1.58866249747831 |
| 12/06/2020 | 19990 | 0.840420210105053 |
| 19/06/2020 | 18990 | 0.62664560294892 |
| 26/06/2020 | 18421 | 0.575430215514901 |
| 03/07/2020 | 31054 | 0.267276357313068 |
| 10/07/2020 | 45638 | 0.297997282965949 |
| 17/07/2020 | 49925 | 0.312468703054582 |
| 24/07/2020 | 50628 | 0.231097416449396 |
| 31/07/2020 | 40652 | 0.570697628652957 |
| 07/08/2020 | 25043 | 1.62919777981871 |
| 14/08/2020 | 41139 | 1.42443909672087 |
| 21/08/2020 | 61565 | 1.19873304637375 |
| 28/08/2020 | 54274 | 1.49979732468585 |
| 04/09/2020 | 63697 | 1.26850558111057 |
| 11/09/2020 | 70781 | 1.67276529012023 |
| 18/09/2020 | 81463 | 2.26360433571069 |
| 25/09/2020 | 90697 | 2.50 |
| 02/10/2020 | 86669 | 3.20 |
Deaths
The data produced by the CSO in Table 2 is based on the Actual Date of Death. Using this method, the CSO has found that while the number of people who have died from COVID-19 has remained below 20 for each of the last 16 weeks, Dublin continues to be the worst hit.
The total number of people who have died from COVID-19 is 1,572, with a further 229 deaths cited as probable deaths linked to the virus. For the week ending 02 October, eight deaths were recorded.
The virus claimed the lives of 36 more men than women up to and including the week ending 02 October. It also continues to impact the older age groups the hardest, with 64% of all confirmed COVID-19 deaths to date in the 80 years old or older age group.
Confirmed Cases
The number of weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases is more than 2,000 cases in each of the last three weeks up to and including 02 October. The total number of confirmed cases is 38,554. The number of cases for the week ending 02 October is 2,440, an increase of 66 from the previous week.
More than half (55%) of all confirmed cases are now linked to an outbreak. The median age of total confirmed COVID-19 cases is now 45.
Some 3,562 more females were diagnosed with COVID-19 than males.
The 25-44 age group still show the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases at 13,294.
The median age of new confirmed COVID-19 cases was 33 years old for the week ending 02 October.
In the week ending 02 October 185 of confirmed cases were among health care workers.
Dublin accounted for a third (805) of all new cases for the week ending 02 October and it was the fourth week in a row that Dublin had more than 800 weekly cases since the beginning of May. Cork is the county with the second highest number of new cases at 285 cases, for the week ended 02 October. This is the sixth week in a row that all counties have recorded new cases of COVID-19.
This is the second week in a row that Galway has recorded more than 100 cases and the third such week for Cork and Donegal.
Hospitalisations
Last week, 72 people were hospitalised, the second week in a row that the number of people that were hospitalised has increased. For the second week in a row there have been less than five people admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). (Note: These figures may need to be adjusted if someone’s condition worsens as there is a time lag between onset of symptoms and hospitalisation.)
Outbreaks
There have been 21,062 positive COVID-19 cases linked to an outbreak, which is defined as two or more cases in the same location and time. Women account for 53% of all cases linked to an outbreak.
The median age of confirmed cases related to an outbreak is 45.
For the week ending 02 October, 87% of cases linked to an Outbreak are under 44 years old and 52% were located in private houses.
Cork made up 21% of all cases linked to an outbreak for the week ending 02 October.
Outbreaks in private houses account for 61% of cases linked to an outbreak in the last seven weeks, while the workplace accounts for 8% of cases linked to an outbreak over this period.
Underlying Conditions
There have been 1,494 deaths of people with underlying conditions from 13,385 confirmed cases with underlying conditions. The median age of those dying with underlying conditions is 83.
There were 1,383 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 125 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 109 had underlying conditions.
In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
Contacts
The average number of contacts per positive case per week is five in the week ending 25 September, down from six two weeks ago. The number of contacts in the 15-24 age group has decreased to six contacts per case in September from just over 10 in August.
For further COVID-19 related information go to the CSO COVID-19 Information Hub
Full statistical tables can be downloaded here:
Table 2: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 2-2A (XLS 25KB)
Table 3: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 3-3A (XLS 31KB)
Table 4: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 4-4A (XLS 29KB)
Table 6: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 6-6A (XLS 16KB)
Table 7: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 7-7A (XLS 40KB)
Table 9: COVID-19 Deaths and Cases Series 13 - Table 9 (XLS 14KB)