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Press Statement

Preasráiteas

25 June 2019

Press Statement Regional Population Projections 2017 - 2036

The Dublin and Mid-East regions are projected to show the strongest population growth to 2036
  • Ireland’s population, which stood at 4.74 million in 2016, is projected to increase to between 5.33 million and 5.81 million by 2036
  • The Mid-East region which accounted for 14.6% of the total population share in 2016, is projected to increase under all six scenarios to between 15.1% and 16.6% by 2036
  • The South-West, Mid-West, West and Border regions are projected to account for a lower percentage share of the total population under all scenarios by 2036
  • The number of persons aged 65 years and over is projected to see increases in excess of 65.0% across all regions by 2036
  • Go to release: Regional Population Projections 2017 - 2036

    The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (25 June 2019) released the Regional Population Projections 2017-2036 report.  Commenting on the report, CSO Statistician James Hegarty said: “With international migration into Ireland of 20,000 persons per annum and internal migration inflows to Dublin from the other regions, the population of Dublin is expected to increase by 31.9%, from 1.34 million in 2016 to 1.76 million persons by 2036, representing 31.6% of the State total.  With the same level of international migration into Ireland, but this time accompanied by population movement from Dublin to other regions, the population of Dublin is expected to increase by just 11.6% to 1.49 million persons by 2036.  In this scenario, the Mid-East region is projected to show the strongest population gains, increasing by 35.6% from 690,900 persons in 2016 to 937,100 persons by 2036.”

    The report presents six regional population projection results for each year from 2017 to 2036. The scenarios are consistent with those used in the national population and labour force projections, published in June 2018.  Mr. Hegarty explained: “This publication is not an attempt to predict the future but rather presents how the population could evolve under six different scenarios. By making assumptions about future trends in mortality, fertility, internal and international migration we can project the population forward and examine the possible outcomes for demographic groups such as the school-going population, the working-age population and the elderly.”

    Mr. Hegarty concluded: “The CSO were assisted in this work by an Expert Group consisting of representatives of government departments, as well as universities and other relevant bodies, and we would like to put on record our appreciation for their time on this work."

    Editor's Note:

    The following is a summary of the assumptions underlying the projections:

    • The fertility assumption (F2) envisages the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), declining from the 2016 level of 1.8 to 1.6 by 2031, remaining constant thereafter
    • Life expectancy is assumed to increase from 2015 levels of 79.3 years for males to 83.6 years by 2036. The corresponding figures for females are 83.3 years and 86.5 years
    • The high migration scenario M1 assumes annual net immigration of 30,000 persons over the projection period.  Migration scenario M2 assumes a more modest net inflow of 20,000 persons per annum to 2036. M3 assumes net inward migration of 10,000 persons per annum
    • The ‘Dublin Outflow’ internal migration assumption sees 2016 flows of -4,400 persons per annum from Dublin to other regions, reverting to the 2006 pattern of -10,200 outflows from Dublin annually by 2021, and remaining constant thereafter 
      The ‘Dublin Inflow’ internal migration assumption sees 2016 flows of -4,400 persons per annum from Dublin to other regions reverting to the traditional pattern of +2,100 inflows to Dublin annually by 2021 and remaining constant thereafter
    For further information contact:

    James Hegarty (+353) 21 453 5429 or Caroline Barrett (+353) 21 453 5485

    or email demography@cso.ie

    -- ENDS --