Monthly Service Inquiry
Data for the Monthly Services Index (MSI) is collected each month from a sample of 2,250 enterprises. Information on the Retail and Motor Trade sectors is taken from the Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,600 enterprises. The Monthly Services Value Index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector and covers services provided by businesses both to individual consumers and to other businesses.
January 2021
As Ireland entered the third wave of COVID-19, the Government agreed on 22nd December 2020 to move the entire country to Level 5 lockdown restrictions with a number of adjustments from Christmas Eve until 12th January 2021 at the earliest. On 30th December 2020, the Government agreed to move the entire country to full Level 5 lockdown restrictions from midnight until 31st January 2021 at the earliest. Only essential retail and services was allowed to operate in January 2021.
January 2022
In December 2021, the fifth wave of COVID-19 arrived in Ireland and limited restrictions were imposed for the Christmas period with an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants, live events, cinemas and theatres. On 19th December, the Omicron variant became Ireland's dominant variant. On 8th January 2022, a record 26,122 cases were reported – the highest daily number reported since the pandemic began. After this peak, cases fell sharply. On 21 January, the government announced the easing of almost all COVID-19 restrictions.
Response Rates
Despite difficult circumstances, many enterprises have continued to supply us with information on a monthly basis and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support. The response rate for the January 2022 MSI has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. The provisional index for each month is subject to revision in the following month as additional information from late respondents is obtained.
Imputation
The Monthly Services index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, an estimate is derived for the current month using trends shown by responding enterprises in the same sector and, in certain cases, using auxiliary data sources.
These auxiliary data sources were also used to validate the results for January 2022. The CSO is satisfied that this range of auxiliary information supports the trends shown in the Monthly Services Index for January.
The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:
Seasonal Adjustment
The patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Services Index will continue to be challenging until the scale and shape of the COVID-19 impact on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models are reviewed each month and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.
Thanking Respondents
The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their turnover data for January and urge them to continue to do so for February 2022 and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still needed to measure the trends in the services sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for services turnover in February. The February Monthly Services Index is planned for publication on 7th April.
CSO publication, 11th March 2022, 11am
Bríd Fitzpatrick (+353) 21 453 5162
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