Data for the Monthly Services Index (MSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 2,250 enterprises. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,600 enterprises. The Monthly Services Value Index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector.

Despite the current difficult circumstances, many enterprises have continued to supply us with this information and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support.

However, due to temporary closure and the difficulties faced by many businesses, the response rate for the March 2020 MSI was about six percentage points lower than would normally be the case. 

Imputation

The Monthly Services index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector a number of key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends from other similar companies and other data available at the time. Estimates for missing key enterprises were made using the trends shown by responding enterprises in the same sector and, in some cases, auxiliary data sources were used.

The auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for March 2020 at sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this full range of information supports the trends estimated in the Monthly Services Index for March. The auxiliary sources used included:

• Government communications on the list of essential services and outlets indicating when sectors shut down (an indicator of the number of trading days in March 2020)
• Published media and research reports on the services sector
• Websites of large services enterprises, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending on services in March compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs including vehicle licensing as a measure of car sales and the Retail Sales Index
• Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Wage Subsidy Scheme

Seasonal Adjustment

The March figures, and subsequent months, are an exception to existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Services Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the COVID-19 impact on the time series is better understood. For the time being March 2020 is modelled as an additive outlier which will be reviewed as required. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.

April 2020

Most enterprises were open for either a part of or most of March. Data collection for April will prove to be more challenging as the range of outlets open for business has diminished to only those deemed to be essential services.

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their turnover data for March and urge them to continue to do so for April, even where turnover for many enterprises was nil. Such information is still needed to measure the precise impact of the crisis on the services sector. The CSO will also continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for services turnover in April. The April Monthly Services Index is planned for publication on 8 June.