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Information note on the implications of COVID-19 on the Retail Sales Index April 2021

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Retail Sales Index

Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with information each month and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support.

COVID-19 restrictions – April 2021 

On 30th December 2020, the Government agreed to move the entire country to Level 5 lockdown from midnight until 31st January 2021 at the earliest. All non-essential retail and services closed from 6pm on 31st December. People had to stay at home except for work, education or other essential purposes. Further measures were announced on 6th January, including the prohibition of click-and-collect services for non-essential retail, however these businesses were allowed to continue trading on a delivery basis only. These restrictions remained in force during the month of April. 

April 2021 vs April 2020

In April 2020 the country was in the midst of the first lockdown, when all but essential retail and services were required to close. The list of essential retail1 allowed to remain open was limited. The speed at which this lockdown happened meant that many retailers took time to adapt to the changing market circumstances and to move to online retailing where possible. Consumers also had to get used to this new retail environment. By the time the third lockdown came into force after Christmas. both consumers and retailers had become more accustomed to the restricted market conditions. While click-and-collect was not allowed during the 3rd lockdown, the proportion of online sales continued to grow and the list of essential retail outlets2 was somewhat broader than was the case in first lockdown.

In April 2020, as the first full month of the first lockdown took hold, the overall volume of retail sales fell by 37.2% compared to the previous month and declined by 43.6% compared to April of the previous year (2019). In April 2021, the volume of retail sales increased by 7.4% compared to the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, resulting in an annual increase of 90.1%. Caution should be exercised when interpreting this annual change, as the comparison is with an historically low base from a year ago. The decline in April last year was the biggest downturn in retail sales on record. A recovery to pre-pandemic levels compared to this time last year simply reflects a return to consumption levels before the impact of COVID-19. The volume of retail sales in April was 7.1% higher than compared to April 2019.

Response Rates

Despite temporary closures and on-going difficulties faced by many businesses, the overall response rate has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Imputation

The Retail Sales index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends shown by other similar companies and from other available data sources.

Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for April 2021 at retail business sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for April. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:

  • Published media and research reports on the retail sector in April 2021 
  • Government guidelines and announcements on restrictions and essential retail/services under the different Levels (1-5) of Ireland’s Plan for Living with Covid-19
  • Retailers’ websites, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
  • Published data on credit card and debit card spending in April compared to other periods
  • Data from other CSO outputs
  • Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment

Seasonal Adjustment

The spending patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models have been reviewed each month since March 2020 and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series. 

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for April 2021 and urge them to continue to do so for May and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still required to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information to derive the best estimate for retail sales in May. The May Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 28th June 2021.

1 Public Health Measures April 2020  

2 Public Health Measures April 2021