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This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.
Over the period 1984 to 2022, the month of January had the highest average number of deaths at 3,119, and the highest crude death rate of 924 per 100,000 of population.
Over this 38-year period, August had the lowest average number of deaths at 2,315 per month, and the lowest crude death rate of 684 per 100,000 of population.
For those aged 85 years and over, January had the highest average monthly death rate per 100,000 (23,265), while August had the lowest (15,265).
For those aged 20 to 24 years, the month of July had the highest average death rate at 73.1, while February had the lowest (58.1).
On average, the month of January had the highest number of deaths due to circulatory (365) and respiratory (154) diseases, while August had the fewest (260 and 78 respectively).
Over the entire 468 months analysed, June 2008 recorded the lowest number of deaths at 2,000, while January 2021 had the highest at 4,106.
The number of deaths of those aged 85 years and over increased by 117% between January 1984 and January 2022 (526 vs 1,142), while the death rate per 100,000 decreased by 36.7% (25,659 vs 16,237) indicating the rise of those aged 85 years and over in the Irish population in more recent years.
All the data which was used in this analysis is available in our Data chapter and the open data is available in our PxStat tables.
Note on Average Figures presented
Figure 1, and Tables 1 to 3 provide high level summary figures on average deaths, rates and temperature by month, age group and cause of death. These are simply calculated by taking the average of the figures for a particular month and or cohort. For instance, in Figure 1 and Table 1 the death rate per 100,000 of population in January between 1984 to 2022 was on average 928.2. This is simply calculated by taking all the death rates for each January over the period and getting a simple average of this number. This is a similar method for all the other average tables presented.
Moreover, for calculating the average min and max temperature for a given month, a simple average was taken by Vital Statistics of the observations presented across meteorological weather stations. For instance, PxStat table MTM06 presents monthly min and max temperatures for 12 meterological weather stations (Malin Head, Claremorris, Valentia Observatory, Belmullet, Shannon Airport, Dublin Airport, Mullingar, Cork Airport, Casement, Phoenix Park, Roches Point, Markree). To derive a State level estimate a simple average is taken of these monthly average figures.
| X-axis label | Death Rate | Average Temp (High) | Average Temp (Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 928.2 | 8.3 | 3 |
| February | 801.3 | 8.7 | 2.9 |
| March | 846.8 | 10.2 | 3.6 |
| April | 777.5 | 12.3 | 4.8 |
| May | 744.9 | 14.9 | 7.1 |
| June | 695.1 | 17.2 | 9.7 |
| July | 697.1 | 18.8 | 11.6 |
| August | 685.8 | 18.5 | 11.4 |
| September | 687.5 | 16.8 | 9.7 |
| October | 742.2 | 13.8 | 7.5 |
| November | 746 | 10.6 | 5 |
| December | 862.5 | 8.9 | 3.7 |
Over the entire period (468 months) in question, June 2008 recorded the lowest number of deaths with 2,000 (Average Max Temp of 17.0 degrees Celsius and Min of 9.3 degrees Celsius), while January 2021 had the highest with 4,106 (Average Max Temp of 7.2 degrees and Min of 2.0 degrees). Please note, all temperatures are in Celsius.
When factoring in population, December 1989 had the highest death rate per 100,000 of population with 1,344 (Average Max Temp of 8.0 degrees and Min of 2.9 degrees), and June 2008 the lowest with 535 (Average Max Temp of 17.0 degrees and Min of 9.3 degrees).
August 1995 was the month with highest average maximum temperature of 22.4 degrees and minimum of 13.0 degrees (2,286 deaths recorded and 762 deaths per 100,000).
February 1986 was the month the lowest average maximum temperature of 3.9 degrees (3,390 and a rate of 1,149 deaths), while December 2010 was the month with the lowest average minimum temperature of -2.0 degrees (2,757 deaths and a rate of 726).
Focusing on specific causes of death, and their rates per 100,000 of population, circulatory deaths were at their highest in December 1989 (624.0 per 100,000) when the average monthly temperature ranged from a max of 8.0 degrees to 2.9 degrees. August 2019 is the current month with the lowest number of circulatory deaths recorded (149.1 per 100,000). Respiratory deaths were highest in January 2000 (310.6 per 100,000), while lowest in June 2020 (48.9 per 100,000). Finally, external causes of death witnessed their highest month in May 2001 (58.6 per 100,000) and lowest in May 2022 (28.7 per 100,000).
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (22 November 2024) published Monthly Mortality and Average Temperatures in Ireland January 1984 - December 2022.
Commenting on the release, Seán O’Connor, Statistician in the Life Events and Demography Division, said:
"Utilising historic mortality data from CSO Vital Statistics, along with average temperature estimates derived from CSO Climate and Energy temperature data for meteorological weather stations, the CSO has carried out an exploratory analysis to examine the trends in mortality over time, and across different age groups. Given this a frontier series, it will evolve over time, and the CSO welcomes any feedback from users in order to enhance future iterations. Moreover, it’s important to note that this study is not attempting to analyse or identify any causal relationships between temperature and mortality patterns.
Taking the period January 1984 up to and including December 2022, the month of January, on average, has recorded the highest crude death rate, with 924 deaths per 100,000 of population. In contrast, August on average tends to have the lowest average death rate per 100,000 of population with 684 deaths.
In general terms, deaths and death rates tend to be elevated during the colder months of December to March, and lower during the warmer months of May to September.
Over the entire period analysed (468 months), June 2008 recorded the lowest number of deaths (2,000), while January 2021 had the highest (4,106) in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. When factoring in population, December 1989 had the highest death rate per 100,000 of population at 1,344, while June 2008 had the lowest at 535.
Analysis by Age
While older age cohorts have higher death rates, which tend to be elevated in colder periods, different age groups show variations across months.
For instance, for those aged between 15 to 29 years, the death rate per 100,000 peaks for this cohort in the month of July, while for those aged 30 years and older, the months of January and December is when death rates are highest. For the age groups, 65 years and older, the months of August and September are when the death rate is at its lowest, but for infants (those aged under one year), the lowest death rate occurs in October".
Breakdown by Sex and Cause of Death
On average, 118 more males die each month than females. Out of the 468 months analysed, there were only 22 months where more female deaths occurred than male deaths in a single month. The largest difference occurred in January 2017, when 143 more female deaths occurred than males.
Focusing on specific causes of death, the circulatory death rate was at its highest in December 1989 (624 deaths per 100,000) when the average monthly temperature ranged from a max of 8.0 degrees Celsius to a min of 2.9 degrees Celsius. August 2019 is the current month with the lowest number of circulatory deaths recorded (149.1 per 100,000). Respiratory deaths were highest in January 2000 (310.6 per 100,000), while lowest in June 2020 (48.9 per 100,000). Finally, external causes of death witnessed their highest rate in the month of May 2001 (58.6 per 100,000) and lowest in May 2022 (28.7 per 100,000)."