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Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics September 2026

Estimated inflation was highest for households headed by those aged under 35 in the 12 months to September 2026

CSO statistical release, , 11am
Frontier Series Output

CSO Frontier Series outputs may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release.

Key Findings

  • In September 2026, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate of inflation was 4.1%. New analysis by the CSO estimates that some higher-income households experienced a lower rate of inflation of 4.0%, while it was 4.2% for households with the lowest incomes.

  • Households headed by a person aged under 35 years had an estimated inflation rate of 4.4%, the highest of all the categories examined. When the household reference person was aged 35 to 64 it was estimated at 4.1%, and at 3.9% for those aged 65 or over.

  • Households renting had an estimated annual inflation rate of 4.3% compared with a rate of 4.1% for households paying a mortgage, while it was 3.7% for households that owned their home outright.

  • The annual inflation rate for urban households was 4.0%, while estimated inflation for rural households stood at 4.2%.

  • Households with children had a lower estimated inflation rate of 3.9% compared with households without children at 4.2%.

  • Households with only one adult had a higher estimated inflation rate of 4.3% than households with two adults (4.1%) and or those with three or more adults (4.0%).

  • The main drivers of inflation in the 12 months to September 2026 for lower income households were Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels, followed by Rent and Transport costs. For higher earners, it was Transport and Restaurants & Accommodation Services costs, which includes hotels, bar sales, and takeaway food and coffees.

  • In the five years between September 2021 and September 2026, the index for Mortgage Interest Payments rose by 96.3%, prices for Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels were 63.7% higher, and the index for Rent was up 36.1%.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (27 October 2026) published Estimates of Inflation by Household Characteristics for September 2026.

This is the seventh in a series of research papers and releases where the CSO estimates how the inflation rate affects different types of households in Ireland depending on age, household composition, income, and other characteristics. See Background Notes for more information.

This release is a Frontier Series output which means care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

Commenting on this CSO Frontier Series release, Edel Flannery, Senior Statistician in the Prices Division, said: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of average inflation for all private households in Ireland. The official rate of inflation in the 12 months to September 2026 was 4.1%. However, each household has its own unique consumption pattern of goods and services and therefore its own personal experience of inflation. This release attempts to take account of those differences between households and provides an estimated breakdown of the CPI results by household characteristics up to September 2026. The price of fuel in particular has had an upward impact on inflation in the last 12 months, due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East as well as other energy costs.  This analysis builds on a series of Research Papers and statistical releases on this topic previously published by the CSO.

The estimates in this release have been calculated by combining the CPI results from June 2026 with more detailed expenditure data from the 2022 to 2023 Household Budget Survey. Estimates of inflation are classified by household income, housing tenure, age of the household reference person, whether the household is in an urban or rural setting, and composition of the household; children in household (yes or no) and number of adults in the household.” 

Highlights

In the 12 months to September 2026, household groups which were estimated to have experienced inflation at a higher rate than the official measure of inflation of 4.1% included:

  • Households where the reference person was aged under 35 years (4.4%)
  • Households that were renting (4.3%)
  • Households containing only one adult (4.3%)
  • Households without children (4.2%)
  • Lower income households with estimated rates of inflation of up to 4.2%
  • Rural households (4.2%)

Please refer to Table 2 and Figure 3.

Contributions to Inflation

Transport, Restaurants & Accommodation Services, and Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels were the largest drivers of inflation in the 12 months to September 2026 (Refer to Table 4). Restaurants & Accommodation Services includes hotels, bar sales, and takeaway food and coffees.

Transport price changes were responsible for almost one-fifth of the annual change in the CPI (0.8 percentage points of the 4.1% annual increase) while Restaurants & Accommodation Services and Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels both contributed another sixth each of the change (both 0.7 percentage points). Looking at household breakdowns:

  • Lowest quartile (the lowest 25% by income): Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels was the largest contributor to their estimated inflation rate at 1.1 percentage points of 4.2% followed by Rent and Transport at 0.8 percentage points each. 
  • Top income quartile: Restaurants & Accommodation Services and Transport were the largest contributors to their estimated inflation (both 0.8 percentage points of 4.1%).
  • Dwellings owned with a mortgage: Mortgage Interest Payments, Transport, and Restaurants & Accommodation Services were the joint largest contributors to their annual inflation of 4.1% at 0.8 percentage points each.
  • Renting their homes: Rent was the largest contributor to their annual inflation (1.4 percentage points of 4.3%), followed by Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels and Transport (both 0.7 percentage points).
  • Rural households: Transport contributed 1.0 percentage points to their annual estimated inflation of 4.2%, while Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels contributed 0.9 percentage points.
  • Urban households: Annual estimated inflation for urban households was 4.0%, with Restaurants & Accommodation Services contributing 0.8 percentage points and Transport and Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels both contributing 0.7 percentage points each.
  • Where reference person was aged under 35: Annual inflation was estimated at 4.4%. The main contributors were Rent (1.0 percentage points), followed by Transport (0.8 percentage points) and Restaurants & Accommodation Services (0.7 percentage points).
  • Where reference person was aged 65 years or over: The main contributors to the estimated inflation of 3.9% for such households were Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (1.1 percentage points) and Transport (0.8 percentage points).
  • Households with children: Annual estimated inflation for households with children was 3.9%, with Transport contributing 0.8 percentage points while Restaurants & Accommodation Services contributed 0.7 percentage points and Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels contributed 0.6 percentage points.
  • Households without children: The three joint main contributors to the estimated inflation of 4.2% for such households were Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, Transport, and Restaurant & Accommodation Services (each 0.8 percentage points).
  • Households with one adult: The main contributors to the estimated inflation of 4.3% for households with one adult were Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (0.9 percentage points), Transport (0.8 percentage points) followed by Rent and Restaurants & Accommodation Services (both 0.7 percentage points each).

Recent Trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

In the tables and commentary, the following periods are distinguished:

  • Overall period (five years) from September 2021 to September 2026.
  • The period (four years) from September 2021 to September 2025.
  • The 12 months (one year) from September 2025 to September 2026.

In the five years from September 2021 to September 2026, the CPI rose by 24.0%, with just over one-sixth of this change being concentrated in the final 12 months. Between September 2021 and September 2025 (four years), the CPI increased by 19.1% while in the 12 months from September 2022 to September 2026, the CPI rose by 4.1% (Refer to Table 1).

Further details for selected CPI subindices are also shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.

Table 1 Change in All Items CPI and selected subindices, September 2021 to September 2026 (5 years), September 2021 to September 2025 (4 years) and September 2025 to September 2026 (1 year)
 01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco04.1 Rent04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments04.5 Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels07. Transport 11. Restaurants & Accommodation ServicesCPI All Items
September-2021 to September-2026 (5 years)26.822.536.196.363.721.5 28.324.0
September-2021 to September-2025 (4 years)26.319.428.078.143.913.0 23.919.1
September-2025 to September-2026 (1 year)0.42.66.310.213.77.5 3.54.1
CPI All Items01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco04.1 Rent04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments04.5 Electricity, Gas & other Fuels07. Transport11. Restaurants & Accommodation Services
2021 September100100100100100100100100
2021 October100.7100.499.3100.8100.3105.9102.199.8
2021 November101.3100.598.7101.2100.5109.1103.599.5
2021 December101.810196.5101.9101109.3106.499.9
2022 January101.4101106.2102.3101.5110.5102.599.7
2022 February102.3101.8104.9103.1102113.1104.7100.2
2022 March104.3102.7104.8103.9102.2130.6110102.1
2022 April105.2103.6104.1105.1102.7131.2111.9103.8
2022 May106.2104.3106.3106.4102.9144110.1104.9
2022 June107.6106.8106.5107.1103.4147.4115.5106.2
2022 July108.1108.3106.7108.2103.5145.7117.7107.5
2022 August108.2109.1107109.5104.9146.7115.3107.8
2022 September108.3109.8107.2110107.6149.6111.2107.5
2022 October110111108.1110.4115.3182.7111.4107.1
2022 November110.4111.7107.6110.9121.5181111.7107.1
2022 December110.1112.9107111.5123.2175.9108.8107.8
2023 January109.2113.7109.6111.7128.8176.2105.7106.9
2023 February111.1115.1110.1112.7134.3174.5108.2109
2023 March112.2116.2110113.3138173.3110.3111
2023 April112.8117.2110.5113.5144.8171.6109.4112.1
2023 May113.2117.5111.7114.1148.3167.2108.2113.9
2023 June114.2117.6111.4114.7151.2167.9110.9114.9
2023 July114.4117.9111.5115.3154.7167.5112.4115.3
2023 August115.1118111.5116.6158.6171.6113115.6
2023 September115.2118.4111.9117.7160.8173.4111.9115.9
2023 October115.6118.7112.6117.7163.5170.2113.2115.4
2023 November114.6119.2112.7117.8166.7156.3111.7114.6
2023 December115.2119.2112.1118.6168.4154.6112.5114.9
2024 January113.7119114.8118.7169.7153.9107.9114.5
2024 February114.9119.8114119.1171.5153.6111.1116
2024 March115.4119.7113.5119.5172.9145.4114.4117.1
2024 April115.7120.4115.7119.6174.9145113.8117.6
2024 May116.2120.6115.6119.9175.8144.5115.4119.3
2024 June116.7120.4115.2121177.1143.9116.3120.1
2024 July116.9120.4115.4121.2177.1143.7118.6120.3
2024 August117.1120.4115.7121.9177.9143117.7120.9
2024 September116120.6115.4123.1179141.9111.6120.3
2024 October116.4121.2118123.6176.9143.9110.8119.7
2024 November115.8121.5116.6124.1175.3142.7109.8119
2024 December116.8121.6115.6124.9176.3142.8114.3119.2
2025 January115.9122.1119.2125176.3143.9112119
2025 February116.9122.8118.3125.3175.6144113.8119.5
2025 March117.7123.6118.3125.7176.6143.1116.1120.9
2025 April118.2124.4118.3126175.9143.9115.9121.5
2025 May118.2125.4119.2126.3175.4143.3112.7122.6
2025 June118.8125.9118.7126.8176.3143.1113.9123
2025 July118.9126118.8126.9176.1144.7115.2123.6
2025 August119.4126.6119.4127.4176.6144.2115124
2025 September119.1126.3119.4128178.1143.9113123.9
2025 October119.7126.7120.4128.1179.6147.1112.7123.6
2025 November119.5126.7119.5128.5181.1147.6112.7123.2
2025 December120126.6118.6129.1182.2147114.6123.4
2026 January119126.8121.9129.2183.7146.4111.9122.9
2026 February120126.8121.3129.3184.7146.7113.5123.9
2026 March122126.5121130.4185.7161.5119.3125.2
2026 April122.6126.9121.4131.4187.9164.1120.2126.2
2026 May122.5127.1122.1131.8188.9158.1119.6127.1
2026 June122.8126.6121.9134.2189.9156.4118.7127.5
2026 July122.9126.8121.9134.4193.8158.3117.7128
2026 August123.7126.7122.2134.4194.6161.4121.1128.3
2026 September124126.8122.5136.1196.3163.7121.5128.3

Inflation by Household Characteristics September 2021 to September 2026

Figure 2 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 24.0% for different household groups for the five years from September 2021 to September 2026. Results ranged from 22.7% for households who owned their home outright to 25.5% for households that were renting their home.

IndicesEstimated difference
1st (Lowest) Income Quartile1.1
2nd Income Quartile0
3rd Income Quartile-0.4
4th (Highest) Income Quartile-0.2
Owned Outright-2.3
Owned with Mortgage1.5
Rented0.7
Urban0.1
Rural-0.4
Under 35 years0.8
35 to 64 years0
65 years or over-0.8
No children0.2
Children-0.4
1 adult1
2 adults0
More than 2 adults-0.6

Figure 3 shows the difference from the overall CPI increase of 4.1% for different household groups in the 12 months from September 2025 to September 2026. Results ranged from 3.7% for households who owned their home outright up to 4.4% for households where the household reference person was aged under 35 years.

IndicesEstimated difference
1st (Lowest) Income Quartile0.1
2nd Income Quartile0.1
3rd Income Quartile-0.1
4th (Highest) Income Quartile0
Owned Outright-0.4
Owned with Mortgage0
Rented0.2
Urban-0.1
Rural0.1
Under 35 years0.3
35 to 64 years0
65 years or over-0.2
No children0.1
Children-0.2
1 adult0.2
2 adults0
More than 2 adults-0.1

Difference from CPI Inflation

Table 2 Estimated Difference from CPI Inflation by Household Characteristics
Type of HouseholdSeptember 2021 to September 2026 (5 years) September 2025 to September 2026 (1 year)
Inflation (%) Difference (%) from overall inflation  Inflation (%)Difference (%) from overall inflation
All Households24.00.0 4.10.0
Income     
1st (Lowest) Income Quartile25.11.1 4.20.1
2nd Income Quartile24.00.0 4.20.1
3rd Income Quartile23.6-0.4 4.0-0.1
4th (Highest) Income Quartile23.8-0.2 4.10.0
Household Tenure     
Owned Outright21.7-2.3 3.7-0.4
Owned with Mortgage25.51.5 4.10.0
Rented24.70.7 4.30.2
Household Location     
Urban24.10.1 4.0-0.1
Rural23.6-0.4 4.20.1
Age of Household Reference Person     
Under 35 years24.80.8 4.40.3
35 to 64 years24.00.0 4.10.0
65 years or over23.2-0.8 3.9-0.2
With/without Children     
No children24.20.2 4.20.1
Children23.6-0.4 3.9-0.2
Number of Adults in Household     
1 adult25.01.0 4.30.2
2 adults24.00.0 4.10.0
More than 2 adults23.4-0.6 4.0-0.1

Contributions - 5 Years

Table 3 Contributions to Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics, September 2021 to September 2026 (5 years) %
Type of Household01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco04.1 Rent04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments04.5 Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels07. Transport 11. Restaurants & Accommodation ServicesOtherTotal
All Households2.9 1.12.52.52.92.8 5.04.224.0
Income           
1st (Lowest) Income Quartile3.7 2.04.80.94.12.4 3.33.925.1
2nd Income Quartile3.4 1.33.01.83.22.7 4.14.224.0
3rd Income Quartile2.8 1.01.72.32.93.1 5.24.323.6
4th (Highest) Income Quartile2.4 0.61.93.62.12.7 6.14.323.8
Household Tenure           
Owned Outright3.1 1.00.20.03.43.2 5.65.021.7
Owned with Mortgage2.7 0.80.36.52.42.8 5.54.525.5
Rented2.9 1.68.90.02.82.2 3.52.924.7
Household Location           
Urban2.7 1.13.22.62.62.5 5.34.224.1
Rural3.3 1.11.22.23.33.3 4.54.623.6
Age of Household Reference Person           
Under 35 years2.6 1.36.31.42.52.5 5.03.324.8
35 to 64 years2.9 1.02.23.22.62.8 5.04.424.0
65 years or over3.3 1.30.60.44.22.8 5.15.223.2
With/without Children           
No children2.8 1.22.71.83.12.8 5.24.524.2
Children3.1 0.92.23.52.52.6 4.64.323.6
Number of Adults in Household           
1 adult2.6 1.44.62.03.72.7 4.93.125.0
2 adults2.9 1.02.72.82.72.7 4.94.324.0
More than 2 adults3.0 1.11.52.22.72.8 5.25.023.4

Contributions - 1 Year

Table 4 Contributions to Estimated Inflation by Household Characteristics, September 2025 to September 2026 (1 year) %
Type of Household01. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 02. Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco04.1 Rent04.2 Mortgage Interest Payments04.5 Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels07. Transport 11. Restaurants & Accommodation ServicesOtherTotal
All Households0.0 0.10.40.30.70.8 0.70.84.1
Income           
1st (Lowest) Income Quartile0.0 0.20.80.11.10.8 0.50.74.2
2nd Income Quartile0.0 0.10.50.20.80.9 0.61.14.2
3rd Income Quartile0.0 0.10.30.30.70.8 0.70.84.0
4th (Highest) Income Quartile0.0 0.00.30.40.50.8 0.80.94.1
Household Tenure           
Owned Outright0.0 0.10.00.00.90.9 0.81.03.7
Owned with Mortgage0.0 0.10.00.80.60.8 0.81.04.1
Rented0.0 0.21.40.00.70.7 0.50.64.3
Household Location           
Urban0.0 0.10.50.30.70.7 0.80.74.0
Rural0.0 0.10.20.30.91.0 0.61.04.2
Age of Household Reference Person           
Under 35 years0.0 0.11.00.20.60.8 0.70.84.4
35 to 64 years0.0 0.10.30.40.70.8 0.70.84.1
65 years or over0.0 0.10.10.11.10.8 0.70.93.9
With/without Children           
No children0.0 0.10.40.20.80.8 0.81.04.2
Children0.0 0.10.30.40.60.8 0.71.03.9
Number of Adults in Household           
1 adult0.0 0.10.70.20.90.8 0.70.94.3
2 adults0.0 0.10.40.30.70.8 0.70.84.1
More than 2 adults0.0 0.10.20.30.70.9 0.70.94.0

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