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This release is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. For further information on the data sources, linking procedures and limitations of this report, see the Methodology and Background Notes sections.
The median number of people who immigrated quarterly over the eight quarters between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024 was between 60,149 and 63,605, depending on the methodology used (See Statistician’s Comment section below).
The median quarterly emigration number for Q3 2022 to Q2 2024 was between 34,465 and 41,220 people, depending on the methodology used.
Excluding those from the EU27 and the United Kingdom - Indian, Ukrainian, and Brazilian nationalities had the most migration activity during this period.
People aged 25-34 years had the largest migration flows between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024. The median quarterly net migration for this age group was between 5,390 and 5,563 people, depending on the methodology used.
In Method One, there was an even breakdown of net migration by sex - with males and females each having a higher share of the net migration total in four of the eight quarters analysed. Looking at Method Two, males were allocated a higher share of the net migration total in five of the eight quarters.
People with Irish nationality accounted for 1.1% to 2.5% of new inward migration flows per quarter over the eight quarters analysed, while they made up between 58.1% and 68.8% of the returning inward migration flows, depending on the methodology used.
Irish nationals accounted for between 43.1% and 60.9% of the outward migration flows per quarter over the same period, depending on the methodology used.
This developmental release is focused on the production of migration statistics from administrative data. This release is intended to both illustrate the potential of administrative data to produce demographic statistics and highlight the challenges that arise. It is worth noting that different methodologies result in different estimates (See Introduction below and Methodology section for more details). The estimates in this release are not the official migration statistics and should be used with caution.
These experimental migration flow indicators are based on the administrative data currently available to the CSO. The availability of more real-time data to the CSO will help provide more up to date statistics and improved indicators in relation to this work going forward.
The CSO is planning to follow this release with a potential quarterly series.
This publication uses two methodologies for indicators of migration from administrative sources. The main difference in these methodologies is the number of datasets used. Method 1, referred to in this release as the 'base' method, uses a small number of datasets which are available to the CSO in a frequent and timely manner, thus allowing for a faster estimate to be calculated.
Method 2 is the 'base plus education' method which uses all datasets mentioned above and includes four additional annual educational datasets. The addition of these datasets results in a more holistic approach to capturing flows between the workforce and education within the country. This comes with a trade off on timeliness and thus this method cannot be used for fast estimate calculations.
Both methods use their respective datasets to check for administrative activity in each quarter from Q3 2022 to Q2 2024, inclusive.
The appearance of administrative activity after a period of absence is used to indicate an inward migrant. Depending on the creation date of a PPSN, this can be categorised as a new inward migrant or a returning inward migrant. Conversely, a movement from showing administrative activity to showing no activity would indicate an outward migrant.
These methodologies effectively capture some cohorts of individuals, for example individuals who work in a PAYE role, while struggling with other cohorts, for example, individuals who reside in the country but do not interact with State resources.
Further information on these methodologies and their limitations can be found in the Methodology chapter.
An analysis of overall trends in the migration flows shows that the highest level of quarterly immigration was seen in Q3 2022. In this quarter there was between 65,570 and 71,823 inward migrants depending on the methodology used. Conversely, the lowest level of quarterly immigration was seen in Q1 2024 where between 51,290 and 54,622 individuals showed an inward flow depending on the methodology used.
Considering the outward migration flows, the highest numbers of quarterly emigration were seen in Q4 2023, with between 38,212 and 55,764 outward migrants depending on the methodology used. The lowest level of quarterly emigration was seen in Q2 2024 which shows between 31,319 and 36,342 emigrants depending on the methodology used. (See Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1)
The age group that saw the highest amount of migration in both directions was the 25–34 year-olds. For new immigration this age group had a median figure of between 12,693 and 12,822 individuals, as well as a median returning immigration figure of between 5,957 and 6,820, depending on the method used. The median outward migration figure for the 25–34 year-olds was between 12,591 and 13,297 depending on the method used.
In Method 1, the ‘base’ method, there are large fluctuations in both the returning inward flow and the outward flow at the younger age groups (0-17 year-olds and 18-24 year-olds), in some quarters. This is due to people in these younger age groups entering and leaving the workforce with short-term work over school breaks. The inclusion of educational datasets in Method 2, the ‘base plus education’ method, means that the flows at these younger age groups are more stable across the quarters. (See Figure 1.2 and Table 1.2)
In Method 1, the 'base' method, there was an even breakdown of net migration by sex - with males and females each having a higher share of the net migration in four of the eight quarters analysed. Looking at Method 2, the 'base plus education' method, males accounted for a higher share of the net migration total in five of the eight quarters. On average, there is not a large difference in the numbers of males and females in the net migration. The quarter that shows the largest difference in the net migration breakdown by sex is Q3 2022. In this quarter there is a notably higher number of females. This coincides with the inward flow of Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTPs) due to the war in Ukraine. (See Figure 1.3 and Table 1.3)
The number of new and returning immigrants can be compared each quarter. The trend over the 8-quarter retrospective period is that there was a higher share of new inward migrants than returning inward migrants.
Using Method 1, the 'base' method, the quarter with the largest difference is Q4 2022 where there were 42,339 new inward migrants and 23,305 returning. This difference decreases on average over the 8 quarters analysed. In the final quarter analysed, Q2 2024, there is a slightly higher number of returning inward migrants, 32,165, than new immigrants, 31,795. Using Method 2, the 'base plus education' method, the quarter with the largest difference was Q3 2022 with 25,006 more new inward migrants than returning. This difference decreases on average over the 8 quarters. The quarter with the smallest difference was Q1 2024 where there were 7,068 more new inward migrants than returning. (See Figure 1.4)
The data shows some notable differences in the demographics of new immigrants and returning immigrants. New immigrant numbers are not affected greatly by the method used. Most new inward migration is concentrated in the younger age groups, with the highest figures seen in the 25-34 year age group.
Comparing this to the returning inward migrants, while the age group with the highest returning immigration is also usually the 25-34 year-olds, there is a skew in the age distribution of returning inward migrants toward older age groups. There is a much higher number of immigrants aged 45+ in the returning migration flow than in the new immigration flow. (See Table 1.4)
When analysed by nationality, the migration flows show a large percentage of Irish people in both the returning immigrant flows and the emigrant flows. People with Irish nationality accounted for between 58.1% and 68.8% of the returning inward migration flows per quarter over the eight quarters analysed, depending on the methodology used. However they make up between 1.1% and 2.5% of new inward migration flows. When considering the emigration flows, Irish nationals accounted for between 43.1% and 60.9% of the outward migration flows per quarter over the same period, depending on the methodology used.
Outside of the country groups of Ireland, the other EU countries and the United Kingdom we also see large numbers for both immigration and emigration from individuals of Brazilian, Indian and Ukrainian nationality. Due to this retrospective series coinciding with the start of the war in Ukraine, there is a large number of Ukrainians who arrived in Ireland as Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTPs) in the early quarters of the series. These individuals can be seen in the new immigrant flows. This trend tapers off over time as the series progresses. (See Figures 1.5, 1.6 and Table 1.5)
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (01 July 2025) published A Review of Migration Indicators from Administrative Sources, Q3 2022 to Q2 2024.
Commenting on the release, Eva Leahy, Statistician in the Life Events and Demography Section, said: “This release is part of the CSO Frontier Series and produces migration flow estimates using administrative data. This work is under development and the CSO is exploring different approaches and methodologies to primarily demonstrate the potential of using administrative data as an indicator of migration flows. This means care must be taken when interpreting these results.
In this release, an outward migrant is defined as a person who was active in administrative datasets for at least two quarters prior to a reference quarter and then showed no activity for the following two quarters. Conversely an inward migrant is defined as a person who was not active in administrative datasets for at least two quarters prior to a reference quarter and then showed activity for both of the following two quarters. This definition is not comparable with the Usual Resident definition used for the official annual CSO Population and Migration Estimates release.
The CSO explored two different methodologies in this release for activity in administrative datasets:
These methodologies represented different potential approaches to fast estimates for migration flows using administrative data, considering timeliness, accessibility, coherence, and coverage. The CSO may also develop new methods in the future.
This research found that the median quarterly immigration number for the eight quarters of Q3 2022 to Q2 2024 was between 60,149 and 63,605 depending on the methodology used. The median quarterly emigration number for the same period was between 34,465 and 41,220 depending on the methodology used.
Unsurprisingly, those aged between 25-34 years had the highest levels of both immigration and emigration flows between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024. Our analysis also showed that while people with Irish nationality accounted for 1.1% to 2.5% of new inward migration flows per quarter over the eight quarters analysed, they represented between 58.1% and 68.8% of the returning inward migration flows. Irish nationals also made up between 43.1% and 60.9% of the outward migration flows per quarter over the same period.
This release is the result of a collaboration between the Life Events and Demography Division of the CSO and our colleagues in the Statistical Systems Co-ordination Unit (SSCU) Division. We would like to thank Declan Smyth and Violeta Moloney for their help in this project.”