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This release has been compiled during the COVID-19 crisis. The results contained in this release reflect some of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 situation. For further information see Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Monthly Services Index September 2020 

CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Services Index

September 2020 (Provisional) August 2020 (Final)

Monthly Services Index (Base Year 2015 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
September 2019126.1-0.44.6
August 2020115.10.5-9.1
September 2020121.15.2-4.0

Monthly Services increased by 5.2% in September 2020

Monthly Services Index September 2020 Figure 1
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The value of monthly services output increased by 5.2% in September 2020 when compared with August 2020 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the 5th successive month in which the value of services output has increased. These increases follow the substantial drop in April when the value of services output fell by 21.2%. On an annual basis, services were 4.0% lower in September 2020 compared with September 2019.

The largest monthly increases in September were in Transportation and Storage (+14.4%) and Administrative and Support Service Activities (+5.8%). Other sectors showing monthly increases were Information and Communication (+5.4%), Other Service Activities (+5.2%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+4.5%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+2.6%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+0.2%). No sector showed a decline in activity in the month of September.

Compared with September 2019, activity is still lower in Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-40.3%), Transportation and Storage (-34.4%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (-28.0%), Other Service Activities (-27.8%) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-0.8%). The only sectors showing an increase since September 2019 were Information and Communication (+11.1%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+1.7%).

Comparing this September with February 2020, three sectors, Information and Communication (+6.7%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+5.7%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+3.2%) have returned to pre-crisis levels. The largest declines in activity recorded since February were in Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-37.6%), Transportation and Storage (-36.2%), Other Service Activities (-27.5%) and Administrative and Support Service Activities (-12.1%).

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities0.30131-0.08365
Administrative and Support Service Activities0.23716-1.53065
Accommodation and Food Service Activities0.00689-2.34932
Information and Communication2.493264.4487
Other Service Activities0.19332-1.36899
Transportation and Storage0.91929-3.49239
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles1.083350.39053
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
Base Year: 2015=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 100.0  
2016 104.4 4.4
2017 108.5 4.0
2018 117.1 7.9
2019 125.3 7.0
     
20192nd quarter126.01.37.1
 3rd quarter126.90.78.0
 4th quarter123.8-2.51.8
     
20201st quarter125.21.10.6
 2nd quarter104.4-16.6-17.2
 3rd quarter2116.912.0-7.9
     
2019March124.9-0.113.5
 April125.40.45.2
 May125.1-0.35.6
 June127.52.010.5
 July128.10.410.3
 August126.6-1.29.2
 September126.1-0.44.6
 October125.0-0.90.9
 November124.6-0.3-0.9
 December121.8-2.25.9
     
2020January125.42.91.7
 February125.80.30.6
 March124.4-1.1-0.4
 April98.1-21.2-21.8
 May101.03.0-19.3
 June114.113.0-10.5
 July114.50.3-10.6
 August115.10.5-9.1
 September2121.15.2-4.0
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2015=100
  Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
  NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2015 99.9 19.7 99.8 17.6
2016 99.7 -0.2 98.1 -1.7
2017 101.4 1.7 99.7 1.6
2018 107.8 6.3 109.1 9.4
2019 106.5 -1.2 105.1 -3.7
         
20192nd quarter106.0-1.8-2.5 104.3-2.6-5.3
 3rd quarter106.30.3-0.6 106.41.9-0.3
 4th quarter105.6-0.7-3.0 102.4-3.7-8.1
         
20201st quarter105.70.1-2.1 104.62.2-2.4
 2nd quarter87.1-17.6-17.8 84.7-19.0-18.8
 3rd quarter3105.821.5-0.5 97.615.2-8.2
         
2019March106.0-4.52.2 104.0-5.4-3.2
 April105.8-0.2-2.4 102.8-1.2-6.9
 May105.5-0.3-2.5 104.51.6-4.5
 June106.71.1-2.6 105.81.3-4.5
 July105.8-0.8-1.7 107.21.30.5
 August106.30.5-1.5 107.40.2-2.5
 September106.90.51.4 104.5-2.71.3
 October105.8-0.9-3.2 102.4-2.0-7.7
 November105.2-0.6-3.1 102.80.4-6.0
 December105.70.5-2.6 101.9-0.9-10.5
         
2020January105.70.0-0.9 101.6-0.3-5.5
 February105.3-0.5-5.2 104.12.5-5.3
 March106.00.70.0 108.13.83.9
 April77.5-26.9-26.7 81.7-24.4-20.5
 May85.09.6-19.4 82.20.6-21.3
 June98.716.1-7.5 90.39.8-14.7
 July104.66.0-1.2 96.67.0-9.8
 August104.0-0.5-2.1 96.2-0.4-10.4
 September3108.74.51.7 100.14.1-4.2
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020
2 Retail Sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale Trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2015=100
  Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
  NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 100.0 5.3 99.5 5.9 100.1 -3.1
2016 102.8 2.8 97.2 -2.4 108.1 7.9
2017 108.6 5.6 105.5 8.5 111.6 3.2
2018 118.4 9.1 128.0 21.4 115.1 3.2
2019 122.2 3.2 130.8 2.2 123.1 7.0
             
20192nd quarter124.52.83.3 132.92.80.0 127.25.311.0
 3rd quarter123.6-0.72.7 134.21.02.3 124.8-1.97.2
 4th quarter119.7-3.2-1.6 126.9-5.5-6.6 119.7-4.12.2
             
20201st quarter101.9-14.9-15.8 99.0-22.0-23.4 113.0-5.6-6.5
 2nd quarter32.0-68.6-74.3 4.4-95.6-96.7 70.0-38.1-45.0
 3rd quarter370.3119.5-43.2 37.4754.3-72.1 113.462.0-9.2
             
2019March123.01.111.6 129.31.718.4 124.31.312.1
 April124.41.12.9 129.30.0-0.7 128.73.610.7
 May124.3-0.13.3 134.74.20.8 125.4-2.69.8
 June124.80.43.8 134.6-0.10.0 127.41.612.5
 July124.0-0.73.2 138.73.06.4 123.6-3.06.0
 August122.9-0.92.0 132.2-4.7-0.5 125.51.57.8
 September124.11.02.7 131.9-0.21.0 125.3-0.17.7
 October120.0-3.3-2.2 127.8-3.1-4.8 121.6-3.0-0.5
 November119.4-0.5-1.5 124.7-2.4-7.4 122.50.84.8
 December119.70.3-1.0 128.22.8-7.6 115.0-6.22.3
             
2020January119.0-0.60.4 122.7-4.2-6.7 123.47.46.8
 February118.8-0.2-2.2 121.9-0.7-4.1 123.90.41.0
 March67.7-43.0-44.9 52.4-57.0-59.5 91.6-26.0-26.3
 April28.8-57.4-76.8 4.0-92.4-96.9 62.1-32.2-51.7
 May29.42.0-76.3 3.9-3.7-97.1 67.28.2-46.4
 June37.828.3-69.7 5.336.9-96.1 80.619.9-36.8
 July62.866.2-49.4 28.0431.1-79.8 106.331.8-14.0
 August74.017.9-39.8 44.257.6-66.6 115.18.4-8.2
 September374.10.2-40.3 40.0-9.4-69.7 118.73.1-5.3
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
      Base Year: 2015=100
  Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2,4
  NACE 69-75 NACE 77-82
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2015 99.9 5.8 100.0 13.4
2016 108.8 8.9 100.1 0.1
2017 121.7 11.9 108.3 8.1
2018 116.1 -4.6 122.9 13.5
2019 102.0 -12.1 100.4 -18.3
         
20192nd quarter99.8-7.8-15.1 103.611.7-21.4
 3rd quarter101.31.5-12.2 104.50.9-20.6
 4th quarter98.7-2.6-11.5 100.7-3.6-19.2
         
20201st quarter96.0-2.8-11.4 88.4-12.2-4.6
 2nd quarter82.1-14.5-17.8 73.9-16.4-28.6
 3rd quarter395.516.4-5.7 76.63.7-26.7
         
2019March110.52.7-15.5 96.05.7-11.2
 April96.5-12.7-21.3 114.719.4-10.8
 May96.80.4-17.4 98.0-14.5-33.8
 June106.29.6-5.9 98.00.0-17.5
 July105.1-1.0-10.9 109.812.1-16.8
 August99.2-5.6-14.6 96.9-11.8-26.1
 September99.70.4-11.0 106.710.1-19.0
 October98.4-1.2-12.2 118.911.4-3.6
 November111.513.2-0.6 90.3-24.1-38.7
 December86.2-22.6-21.7 93.03.0-10.3
         
2020January100.616.7-5.9 87.5-5.9-4.1
 February93.6-7.0-13.0 87.50.0-3.6
 March93.70.1-15.2 90.33.2-6.0
 April79.0-15.7-18.1 78.9-12.5-31.2
 May75.8-4.0-21.7 69.3-12.3-29.3
 June91.520.6-13.9 73.56.1-25.0
 July91.40.0-13.0 80.39.3-26.9
 August96.35.4-2.9 72.7-9.5-25.0
 September398.92.6-0.8 76.95.8-28.0
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4Administrative and Support Service Activities do not display seasonal factors, unadjusted data is displayed as seasonally adjusted data in this table.
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2015=100
  Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
  NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 100.0 4.2 100.0 27.1 100.0 3.5
2016 101.1 1.2 107.5 7.5 112.4 12.4
2017 102.8 1.7 109.4 1.8 117.8 4.8
2018 110.6 7.6 128.4 17.4 104.4 -11.3
2019 118.6 7.2 160.7 25.1 117.7 12.7
             
20192nd quarter117.6-1.54.0 163.94.730.0 116.04.413.6
 3rd quarter117.1-0.415.3 165.30.925.3 120.23.717.0
 4th quarter120.32.71.8 157.0-5.011.9 123.62.819.3
             
20201st quarter112.2-6.7-6.0 173.810.711.1 107.4-13.2-3.4
 2nd quarter64.6-42.4-45.1 171.4-1.44.6 49.0-54.4-57.7
 3rd quarter271.711.1-38.8 173.61.35.0 83.770.9-30.4
             
2019March119.90.510.3 157.91.445.8 108.7-6.04.8
 April121.31.25.4 161.82.525.6 105.0-3.42.1
 May118.6-2.25.7 162.50.428.8 122.116.320.0
 June112.8-4.90.8 167.43.035.8 120.8-1.118.9
 July115.12.016.6 167.60.132.1 118.7-1.816.1
 August117.72.314.5 166.7-0.532.9 120.11.218.0
 September118.50.714.8 161.7-3.012.6 122.01.616.8
 October121.12.213.2 157.1-2.84.2 120.5-1.214.9
 November119.8-1.1-2.5 156.4-0.46.3 125.44.018.9
 December119.90.0-3.9 157.50.728.0 125.0-0.324.1
             
2020January121.91.62.5 164.44.45.4 117.9-5.78.1
 February122.00.12.3 168.32.48.1 121.63.25.3
 March92.7-24.1-22.7 188.812.219.6 82.5-32.2-24.1
 April61.8-33.3-49.0 161.7-14.4-0.1 46.4-43.8-55.8
 May64.64.6-45.5 166.63.02.5 48.64.9-60.2
 June67.24.0-40.4 186.111.711.2 52.06.9-56.9
 July69.33.1-39.8 170.9-8.12.0 79.552.8-33.0
 August68.0-1.8-42.2 170.4-0.32.2 83.75.3-30.3
 September277.814.4-34.4 179.55.411.1 88.15.2-27.8
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

The Monthly Services Value Index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,250 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,600 enterprises.

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 46% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 75% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 55% and 83% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending December 2018.

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transportation and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Service Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-82)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Service Activities
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2015. Using data taken from the 2015 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach.  

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows: respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2015 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2015 ASI, is applied. The reason for this methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

Calculations

Monthly and annual percentage changes are calculated before rounding. All indices presented in the tables are rounded to one decimal place.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month. All sub-indices excluding Administrative and Support Service Activities display seasonal factors.

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau. The seasonal estimates take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

Rebase 2015

The rebasing of the series is in line with EU recommendations to update the base reference periods at regular five-year intervals. This new series replaces the existing series to base year 2010 as 100.

The difference in the new rebased MSI series is the use of new cell and sector baseweights taken from the ASI 2015. The existing cell structure/breakdown was maintained in this series. For each sector, enterprises are placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria and each sector is then weighted to compile the overall index:

  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000 and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA is less than €2,500,000

The new baseweights are updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA.

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