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Extra information
For more information on this release:
E-mail: business_stats@cso.ie Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523 Sandra Tobin (+353)21 453 5912
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, 08 March 2018, 11am

Monthly Services Index

January 2018 (Provisional) December 2017 (Final)

Monthly Services Index
(Base Year 2015 = 100)
    Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
January 2018114.53.18.8
December 2017111.0-0.34.5
January 2017105.2-1.00.2

Monthly Services increased by 3.1% in January 2018

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The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 3.1% in January 2018 when compared with December 2017 while in the year to January 2018, there was an increase of 8.8%.

On a monthly basis, the sectors showing increases in January 2018 were Other Services Activities (+10.0%), Information and Communication (+7.0%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (+3.8%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+2.4%) and Transportation and Storage (+1.8%). Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-4.4%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-0.4%) recorded decreases in the month to end January 2018.

On an annual basis, the sectors showing increases since January 2017 were Information and Communication (+12.5%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (+10.5%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+8.2%), Transportation and Storage (+7.5%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+6.5%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+5.0%) and Other Service Activities (+4.6%).

This Monthly Services Index (MSI) has been compiled with reference to base year 2015=100. The new series has been calculated using updated weights from the Annual Services Inquiry 2015 (see background notes).

 

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities-0.656911.14723
Administration and Support Service Activities0.244090.664
Accommodation and Food Service Activities-0.022430.29345
Information and Communication2.219313.97655
Other Service Activities0.518140.26633
Transportation and Storage0.1890.79243
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles0.607791.65492
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
Base Year: 2015=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 100.0  
2016 104.4 4.4
2017 108.5 4.0
     
20163rd quarter104.21.21.1
 4th quarter106.92.63.6
     
20171st quarter106.7-0.13.4
 2nd quarter107.30.54.2
 3rd quarter109.31.84.9
 4th quarter110.81.43.7
     
2016July103.30.71.2
 August103.50.11.5
 September105.82.30.5
 October106.80.91.7
 November107.70.93.0
 December106.2-1.36.4
     
2017January105.2-1.00.2
 February109.74.37.6
 March105.3-4.12.4
 April107.31.94.0
 May108.00.64.6
 June106.6-1.33.9
 July109.12.35.6
 August109.80.76.1
 September108.9-0.82.9
 October110.11.13.2
 November111.31.13.4
 December111.0-0.34.5
     
2018January2114.53.18.8
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2018
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2015=100
  Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
  NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2015 99.9   99.9  
2016 99.7 -0.2 98.2 -1.7
2017 101.3 1.6 99.7 1.5
         
20163rd quarter100.11.90.0 100.16.0-1.0
 4th quarter101.71.6-0.5 104.74.61.4
         
20171st quarter100.9-0.82.2 96.7-7.63.1
 2nd quarter100.3-0.62.0 98.31.74.2
 3rd quarter101.00.80.9 101.12.91.1
 4th quarter103.12.01.4 102.71.6-1.8
         
2016July100.10.60.1 98.0-0.6-3.1
 August99.5-0.5-0.5 98.50.5-3.9
 September100.81.30.5 103.75.24.3
 October101.50.7-0.1 103.2-0.51.0
 November101.70.2-1.2 105.32.1-2.1
 December102.00.4-0.4 105.50.15.7
         
2017January100.8-1.2-0.6 94.1-10.8-1.5
 February101.20.42.5 95.31.31.1
 March100.7-0.54.9 100.65.510.0
 April101.40.73.9 99.6-1.09.1
 May100.7-0.72.9 99.60.06.8
 June98.7-1.9-0.7 95.7-3.9-2.9
 July100.41.60.3 99.84.31.8
 August100.90.51.3 99.80.01.3
 September101.91.11.1 103.83.90.1
 October100.3-1.6-1.2 96.2-7.2-6.7
 November104.34.02.6 105.910.00.5
 December104.80.52.7 106.10.20.6
         
2018January3107.32.46.5 107.61.514.4
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2018
2 Retail Sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale Trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and Retail Trade; repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2015=100
  Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
  NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 100.1   99.5   100.1  
2016 108.1 8.0 97.2 -2.3 108.1 8.0
2017 111.5 3.1 105.5 8.5 111.5 3.1
             
20163rd quarter102.90.42.0 95.91.0-6.0 107.9-2.111.0
 4th quarter104.11.23.1 99.23.53.6 107.4-0.44.1
             
20171st quarter106.11.94.6 102.12.93.3 109.92.32.8
 2nd quarter107.61.45.0 102.20.17.7 113.53.23.0
 3rd quarter109.31.66.2 104.82.69.3 111.7-1.53.6
 4th quarter110.91.46.5 113.07.813.9 111.0-0.73.3
             
2016July103.6-0.41.7 96.61.4-8.0 109.1-3.413.7
 August101.5-2.01.1 93.6-3.2-7.4 107.8-1.212.0
 September103.62.13.1 97.44.1-2.4 106.7-1.17.4
 October104.60.93.2 98.61.11.5 107.81.06.0
 November103.2-1.32.0 98.80.24.1 105.6-2.11.3
 December104.61.34.0 100.41.65.2 109.03.25.1
             
2017January105.10.53.6 101.51.10.5 109.20.22.7
 February105.20.13.8 101.2-0.32.3 108.4-0.71.0
 March108.02.76.3 103.72.57.2 112.33.64.6
 April107.5-0.56.8 103.4-0.28.9 112.90.64.1
 May107.60.14.5 101.3-2.17.1 113.20.23.8
 June107.90.33.7 101.80.66.9 114.31.01.2
 July107.2-0.73.4 100.2-1.63.7 111.4-2.52.1
 August111.13.79.4 107.06.814.4 113.61.95.3
 September109.7-1.35.9 107.30.310.1 110.1-3.03.2
 October109.4-0.34.6 106.4-0.88.0 111.41.13.3
 November112.62.99.1 118.010.919.5 109.7-1.53.9
 December110.7-1.75.9 114.6-2.914.1 111.81.92.6
             
2018January3110.3-0.45.0 115.71.014.1 113.11.13.6
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2018
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
      Base Year: 2015=100
  Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
  NACE 69-75 NACE 77-83
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2015 99.8   100.0  
2016 108.8 9.0 99.9 -0.1
2017 121.7 11.9 108.4 8.5
         
20163rd quarter105.9-2.85.7 100.25.6-0.5
 4th quarter110.64.46.8 105.85.53.9
         
20171st quarter114.23.34.2 104.6-1.16.0
 2nd quarter118.94.19.1 107.52.713.2
 3rd quarter130.810.023.5 109.51.99.2
 4th quarter122.9-6.111.1 112.12.46.0
         
2016July102.5-5.71.9 97.06.61.1
 August108.55.98.4 100.73.7-0.2
 September106.8-1.67.0 103.12.4-2.2
 October104.2-2.44.8 109.76.47.0
 November118.113.313.2 102.7-6.30.3
 December109.5-7.32.4 105.12.34.4
         
2017January108.0-1.4-7.9 102.5-2.4-1.0
 February118.19.410.7 104.41.87.5
 March116.6-1.311.2 107.02.412.1
 April115.9-0.65.6 104.8-2.09.1
 May123.86.814.0 107.72.810.1
 June117.1-5.47.8 110.02.120.9
 July128.59.825.4 111.21.214.7
 August137.87.227.0 108.7-2.38.0
 September126.2-8.418.2 108.6-0.15.4
 October128.41.723.2 111.02.11.2
 November118.1-8.00.0 116.34.913.3
 December122.23.511.6 109.2-6.23.9
         
2018January3116.8-4.48.2 113.33.810.5
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2018
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2015=100
  Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
  NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015 99.9   100.0   100.2  
2016 101.3 1.4 107.4 7.3 112.2 12.0
2017 102.8 1.4 109.4 1.9 118.0 5.1
             
20163rd quarter98.5-4.6-3.5 108.53.8-0.1 113.50.412.5
 4th quarter103.75.33.7 109.91.33.3 117.33.320.2
             
20171st quarter102.3-1.32.4 108.2-1.51.5 121.43.515.7
 2nd quarter103.91.50.6 107.5-0.72.8 118.8-2.15.0
 3rd quarter100.7-3.12.2 108.91.40.4 115.0-3.11.3
 4th quarter104.23.50.5 113.24.03.1 116.71.4-0.5
             
2016July96.8-12.3-5.1 108.98.62.9 109.7-3.35.8
 August96.2-0.6-7.2 106.2-2.51.4 115.14.916.9
 September102.56.51.8 110.33.8-4.3 115.80.615.1
 October105.02.52.7 111.20.8-2.4 116.80.920.3
 November104.9-0.16.2 109.8-1.2-0.7 115.6-1.020.9
 December101.3-3.42.3 108.5-1.214.7 119.43.319.4
             
2017January102.81.54.2 106.9-1.50.0 119.2-0.220.2
 February100.6-2.10.1 115.58.011.0 128.07.424.4
 March103.73.13.1 102.0-11.7-6.1 116.9-8.63.7
 April106.22.57.9 106.54.4-1.0 126.07.713.3
 May103.4-2.62.4 107.81.32.2 115.8-8.11.0
 June102.0-1.3-7.6 108.10.27.7 114.5-1.10.9
 July101.8-0.25.1 109.00.90.1 118.03.07.5
 August99.3-2.43.2 108.2-0.81.9 114.5-3.0-0.5
 September100.91.6-1.5 109.51.2-0.7 112.6-1.6-2.7
 October99.4-1.5-5.4 112.83.01.5 119.56.12.3
 November104.75.3-0.2 114.41.44.2 117.1-2.11.2
 December108.53.77.2 112.4-1.83.6 113.4-3.1-5.0
             
2018January2110.51.87.5 120.37.012.5 124.710.04.6
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2018
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

Methodology

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,250 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,800 enterprises.

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 51% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 73% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 81% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending December 2017.

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-82)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2015. Using data taken from the 2015 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach.  

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows: respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2015 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2015 ASI, is applied. The reason for this methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau. The seasonal estimates take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

Rebase 2015

The rebasing of the series is in line with EU recommendations to update the base reference periods at regular five-year intervals. This new series replaces the existing series to base year 2010 as 100.

The difference in the new rebased MSI series is the use of new cell and sector baseweights taken from the ASI 2015. The existing cell structure/breakdown was maintained in this series. For each sector, enterprises are placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria and each sector is then weighted to compile the overall index:

  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000 and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA is less than €2,500,000

The new baseweights are updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA.

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