Back to Top

 Skip navigation

Extra information
For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353)21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Services Index

December 2014 (Provisional) November 2014 (Final)

 Monthly Services Index
 (Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
December 2013109.43.91.6
November 2014111.6-0.95.9
December 2014114.02.14.1

Monthly Services increased by 2.1% in December 2014

go to full release

The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 2.1% in December 2014 when compared with November 2014 while, in the year to December 2014, there was an increase of 4.1%.

On a monthly basis, Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+7.0%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+2.7%), Transportation and Storage (+2.2%), Other Service Activities (+1.8%) and Information and Communication (+1.3%) increased when compared with November 2014 and Administrative and Support Service Activities (-0.8%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-0.5%) decreased in the month to December 2014.

On an annual basis, Other Service Activities (+23.6%), Transportation and Storage, (+18.8%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+12.8%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+11.8%), and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+3.8%) increased when compared with December 2013. Information and Communication (-4.8%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (-4.4%) showed a decrease in the same period.

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities0.685151.12168
Administration and Support Service Activities-0.06625-0.40339
Accommodation and Food Service Activities-0.033360.78887
Information and Communication0.36221-1.40167
Other Service Activities0.091111.02641
Transportation and Storage0.247351.81975
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles0.842531.19302
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
   Base Year: 2010=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
     
2009 102.4  
2010 99.9 -2.4
2011 103.3 3.4
2012 106.0 2.6
2013 107.3 1.2
20142 111.6 4.0
     
20134th quarter106.4-0.7-1.6
     
20141st quarter109.52.91.9
 2nd quarter111.31.73.0
 3rd quarter112.91.45.3
 4th quarter2112.7-0.15.9
     
2013June108.70.54.0
 July107.1-1.52.7
 August106.8-0.3-0.2
 September107.70.83.7
 October104.5-2.9-3.4
 November105.30.8-3.1
 December109.43.91.6
     
2014January111.21.64.2
 February107.8-3.01.5
 March109.41.50.1
 April112.42.74.8
 May109.9-2.21.7
 June111.71.62.7
 July113.41.55.9
 August112.1-1.24.9
 September113.21.05.1
 October112.6-0.57.8
 November111.6-0.95.9
 December2114.02.14.1
     
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2014 
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents 
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
        Base Year: 2010=100
   Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
   NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
          
2009  95.6   90.3  
2010  100.0 4.6 99.9 10.6
2011  107.2 7.2 114.2 14.3
2012  109.6 2.2 118.9 4.1
2013  105.4 -3.8 112.7 -5.2
20143  108.7 3.1 117.5 4.3
          
20134th quarter 103.4-3.9-6.3 113.10.7-3.1
          
20141st quarter 109.86.25.0 115.01.72.7
 2nd quarter 109.3-0.43.0 120.04.45.8
 3rd quarter 108.9-0.41.2 117.7-1.94.8
 4th quarter3 107.0-1.73.5 117.2-0.43.7
2013         
 June 105.6-1.4-3.1 112.4-1.8-5.0
 July 107.92.20.1 115.52.7-2.7
 August 107.90.1-1.1 111.1-3.8-6.6
 September 107.1-0.80.3 110.3-0.7-3.8
 October 103.5-3.4-7.1 112.62.1-4.4
 November 102.3-1.2-8.3 110.4-2.0-7.7
 December 104.52.2-3.2 116.35.33.2
          
2014January 112.87.96.5 118.72.10.9
 February 107.2-4.91.9 112.1-5.60.4
 March 109.32.06.6 114.01.76.9
 April 109.60.23.7 119.34.65.1
 May 108.9-0.61.7 119.50.24.5
 June 109.40.53.7 121.31.57.9
 July 110.40.92.4 117.0-3.61.3
 August 107.8-2.4-0.2 116.8-0.25.1
 September 108.40.61.3 119.42.28.2
 October 107.1-1.23.5 116.6-2.33.6
 November 105.6-1.43.3 114.9-1.54.1
 December3 108.42.73.8 120.24.63.4
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2014
2 Retail sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1   
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
   NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2009  111.7   113.0   108.4  
2010  100.0 -10.5 100.0 -11.5 100.0 -7.8
2011  101.2 1.2 105.0 5.0 102.7 2.7
2012  103.5 2.2 107.1 2.0 109.9 7.0
2013  103.5 0.0 106.3 -0.8 112.0 1.9
20143  110.2 6.4 114.5 7.7 124.3 11.0
              
20134th quarter 104.62.31.1 109.75.60.7 114.63.45.0
              
20141st quarter 105.60.92.2 112.72.74.8 115.50.84.2
 2nd quarter 107.72.03.7 114.51.610.1 117.61.85.1
 3rd quarter 110.12.37.7 112.2-2.08.0 125.76.913.5
 4th quarter3 117.46.612.2 118.55.68.0 138.310.020.7
              
2013June 106.63.6-0.8 105.81.5-5.4 113.72.1-0.7
 July 103.7-2.70.0 102.5-3.1-6.1 112.4-1.21.4
 August 102.9-0.8-2.8 104.72.1-6.6 114.51.93.2
 September 100.2-2.7-7.7 104.5-0.2-7.8 105.5-7.9-7.1
 October 102.62.4-1.5 106.62.0-2.5 112.06.21.0
 November 106.03.32.9 111.54.63.1 115.63.26.2
 December 105.3-0.61.9 111.1-0.41.4 116.00.47.9
              
2014January 104.7-0.71.1 111.90.86.3 113.9-1.90.9
 February 105.71.04.8 112.90.98.7 115.31.37.3
 March 106.50.80.7 113.20.2-0.2 117.41.84.6
 April 108.61.96.4 113.80.611.6 118.91.37.5
 May 109.30.76.2 118.34.013.4 119.90.87.7
 June 105.2-3.8-1.3 111.5-5.85.3 114.0-4.90.3
 July 107.01.73.1 110.9-0.58.2 120.85.97.4
 August 112.14.78.9 114.43.19.2 127.15.211.0
 September 111.4-0.611.1 111.2-2.76.4 129.31.822.6
 October 114.02.411.1 114.83.27.7 132.42.418.2
 November 119.44.712.7 117.92.75.7 141.36.722.3
 December3 118.8-0.512.8 122.74.110.5 141.2-0.121.7
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2014
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2010=100
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
   NACE 64-75 NACE 77-82
Period  Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
          
2009  119.1   97.2  
2010  100.1 -16.0 99.9 2.8
2011  101.2 1.1 92.7 -7.2
2012  90.4 -10.7 99.4 7.2
2013  85.2 -5.7 121.5 22.3
20143  84.9 -0.3 121.2 -0.3
          
20134th quarter 79.7-3.3-13.0 124.4-0.120.6
          
20141st quarter 84.56.1-6.6 119.1-4.34.8
 2nd quarter 82.2-2.8-6.8 120.41.2-2.5
 3rd quarter 86.55.24.9 123.32.3-1.1
 4th quarter3 86.50.08.6 122.1-0.9-1.8
          
2013June 87.71.4-4.3 127.03.834.6
 July 80.9-7.8-9.1 124.9-1.618.0
 August 83.53.2-4.0 125.50.523.8
 September 82.9-0.7-2.0 123.3-1.723.2
 October 79.9-3.6-12.8 121.2-1.714.4
 November 79.4-0.6-14.9 125.43.520.4
 December 79.70.4-11.2 126.50.927.3
          
2014January 88.711.2-0.4 120.8-4.510.7
 February 80.9-8.8-12.2 118.7-1.85.5
 March 84.03.8-7.1 117.7-0.9-1.3
 April 82.6-1.7-8.8 118.70.9-2.3
 May 81.6-1.2-5.6 120.61.7-1.4
 June 82.40.9-6.1 122.11.2-3.9
 July 86.14.56.4 123.71.3-1.0
 August 83.4-3.1-0.1 123.60.0-1.5
 September 90.08.08.6 122.5-0.9-0.7
 October 87.1-3.29.1 123.50.91.9
 November 83.3-4.44.9 121.9-1.3-2.8
 December3 89.27.011.8 121.0-0.8-4.4
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2014
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1 
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
   NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2009  112.1   93.6   121.1  
2010  100.2 -10.6 99.6 6.5 99.8 -17.5
2011  103.9 3.6 103.4 3.8 100.5 0.7
2012  109.4 5.3 112.8 9.1 96.9 -3.7
2013  111.0 1.5 119.8 6.2 93.2 -3.8
20142  116.1 4.6 128.2 7.0 99.9 7.2
              
20134th quarter 106.2-6.1-5.5 123.66.34.5 90.7-3.6-5.8
              
20141st quarter 109.02.6-2.4 125.21.33.4 90.70.0-2.4
 2nd quarter 116.26.62.8 129.13.29.1 97.98.03.0
 3rd quarter 119.32.65.5 129.40.211.4 104.56.711.1
 4th quarter2 119.90.612.9 129.1-0.34.4 106.41.817.3
              
2013June 111.9-2.61.4 121.63.513.1 92.0-6.8-3.2
 July 116.94.44.6 114.5-5.87.4 92.50.5-0.4
 August 111.6-4.50.6 113.5-0.9-4.5 94.62.31.6
 September 110.7-0.8-1.5 120.66.210.7 95.00.30.9
 October 108.0-2.4-2.8 116.2-3.60.6 90.2-5.0-8.3
 November 108.70.6-3.3 118.52.01.1 92.52.5-4.9
 December 102.0-6.2-10.2 136.014.711.5 89.4-3.3-4.1
              
2014January 114.912.74.3 123.1-9.44.2 90.00.7-7.3
 February 107.6-6.3-3.1 124.91.48.5 89.0-1.1-6.4
 March 104.5-2.9-8.1 127.52.1-1.8 92.94.47.4
 April 118.713.65.7 132.43.914.2 97.34.72.7
 May 113.9-4.0-0.9 125.2-5.56.5 95.5-1.8-3.2
 June 115.91.83.6 129.83.76.8 101.05.79.8
 July 116.20.2-0.6 132.92.316.0 99.5-1.57.6
 August 121.34.48.7 126.2-5.011.3 111.211.717.5
 September 120.3-0.88.7 129.22.37.1 102.8-7.68.2
 October 120.30.011.4 129.90.611.8 100.0-2.710.9
 November 118.4-1.69.0 127.8-1.77.8 108.68.617.4
 December2 121.12.218.8 129.51.3-4.8 110.51.823.6
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2014
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

Introduction  

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

 

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

 

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

 

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp

 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-83)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

 

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2010. Using data taken from the 2010 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach. 

 

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows; respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2010 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2010 ASI, is applied. The reason for this change in methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

 

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

 

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau.  The ARIMA option in X-13ARIMA-SEATS is used to forecast and backcast the series in order to have sufficient data to run the seasonal adjustment, as currently we have less than five years of data. Due to the lack of a sufficiently long series the series are not adjusted for Easter and Trading effects.  The seasonal estimates do, however, take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

 

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

 

Rebase 2010 – Changes

The main reasons for differences in the new rebased and updated MSI series in comparison with the MSI (base year 2009 =100) are as follows:

  • New cell baseweights were taken from the ASI 2010.
  • A new cell structure/breakdown has been adopted for each sector.  Each enterprise is placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria:
  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000  and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA  is less than €2,500,000
  • The new baseweights are now updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA as opposed to changes in respondents’ reported turnover.
  • To keep with the classifications adopted by ASI 2010 a number of NACE sectors have been excluded from the updated MSI, i.e.
  • NACE 66 – Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • NACE 90 – Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • NACE 91 – Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • NACE 77 - Rental and leasing activities are no longer in Other Business Activities. NACE 77 is now included Administrative and Support Service Activities.
  • The inclusion of new and revised micro data.
upArrowHide Background Notes

Scan the QR code below to view this release online or go to
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/si/monthlyservicesindexdecember2014/