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E-mail: STS_RAP@cso.ie Patrick Foley (+353)21 453 5012 Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Services Index

December 2012 (Provisional) November 2012 (Final)

Monthly Services Index
(Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
December 2011107.22.25.9
November 2012106.70.11.7
December 2012106.0-0.7-1.2

Monthly Services decreases by 0.7% in December 2012

Figure 1 SI - Monthly Services Index
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The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index decreased by 0.7% in December 2012 when compared with November 2012 and there was an annual decrease of 1.2%.  

Information and Communication (+4.2%) and Transportation and Storage (+0.1%) showed month on month increases when compared with November 2012. Other Service Activities (-4.1%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-3.8%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (-2.6%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-0.1%) Wholesale and Retail Trade (-2.6%) showed decreases when compared with the preceding month.

 

Information and Communication (+9.2%), Transportation and Storage (+6.2%) Administrative and Support Service Activities (+3.7%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+1.7%) showed annual increases when compared with December 2011. Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-16.4%), Other Service Activities (-14.4%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (-4.2%) showed decreases when compared with December 2011.

Figure 2 SI - Contributions to MSI Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Services Index Month on Month change
Figure 3 SI - Contributions to MSI Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Services Index Year on Year change
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
   Base Year: 2010=100
Period Total Non-Financial Traded Services
 NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
     
2009 102.4  
2010 99.9 -2.4
2011 103.2 3.3
20122 105.5 2.3
     
20114th quarter105.01.94.8
     
20121st quarter105.0-0.13.6
 2nd quarter105.90.92.3
 3rd quarter104.9-1.01.8
 4th quarter2106.41.51.3
     
2011June103.3-1.92.3
 July100.9-2.4-0.1
 August103.62.74.2
 September104.61.02.5
 October102.9-1.63.3
 November104.92.05.2
 December107.22.25.9
     
2012January104.0-3.02.4
 February105.21.14.9
 March105.70.53.7
 April105.3-0.43.3
 May106.81.51.4
 June105.6-1.12.2
 July104.7-0.83.9
 August105.81.02.1
 September104.1-1.6-0.5
 October106.62.43.6
 November106.70.11.7
 December2106.0-0.7-1.2
     
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2012 
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents 
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
        Base Year: 2010=100
   Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale trade4
   NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
          
2009  95.6   90.3  
2010  99.9 4.6 99.9 10.6
2011  107.2 7.3 114.2 14.3
20123  109.4 2.1 118.6 3.9
          
20114th quarter 110.62.87.8 120.24.113.8
          
20121st quarter 110.90.35.4 122.31.710.5
 2nd quarter 110.0-0.94.3 120.7-1.39.2
 3rd quarter 108.3-1.60.7 116.2-3.70.6
 4th quarter3 108.60.3-1.8 115.4-0.7-4.0
          
2011June 105.5-1.03.6 109.7-3.26.2
 July 104.4-1.03.5 109.70.07.7
 August 108.43.99.4 117.16.820.4
 September 109.81.27.4 119.62.115.3
 October 110.10.39.1 120.10.418.0
 November 110.50.47.1 119.5-0.512.1
 December 111.10.57.2 121.01.211.4
          
2012January 110.4-0.75.2 121.40.310.7
 February 110.80.44.4 122.81.29.5
 March 111.60.76.7 122.6-0.211.5
 April 110.2-1.25.7 120.2-2.010.9
 May 111.30.94.4 122.52.08.1
 June 108.4-2.62.8 119.3-2.78.7
 July 108.80.34.2 118.4-0.77.9
 August 108.90.10.4 117.5-0.80.3
 September 107.1-1.6-2.4 112.8-4.0-5.7
 October 110.02.7-0.1 116.63.4-2.9
 November 109.3-0.6-1.1 117.10.4-2.0
 December3 106.4-2.6-4.2 112.4-4.0-7.1
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2012
2 Retail sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1   
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
   NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2009  111.8   113.2   108.4  
2010  100.1 -10.5 100.2 -11.6 100.0 -7.8
2011  101.3 1.2 105.1 5.0 102.8 2.8
20123  103.4 2.1 106.8 1.6 109.7 6.7
              
20114th quarter 102.30.73.6 101.2-6.61.0 109.68.011.9
              
20121st quarter 100.3-1.90.9 99.9-1.3-4.2 109.2-0.311.2
 2nd quarter 103.43.11.4 108.08.11.2 109.50.27.6
 3rd quarter 104.81.43.2 109.81.71.4 110.81.19.2
 4th quarter3 105.00.12.7 109.5-0.38.2 109.2-1.4-0.4
              
2011June 100.60.2-0.2 105.90.26.0 100.3-0.3-1.6
 July 104.13.53.2 114.07.613.8 100.80.5-3.8
 August 99.7-4.20.8 105.3-7.68.8 100.5-0.2-0.9
 September 101.01.31.1 105.70.46.4 103.12.61.3
 October 101.10.1-0.9 100.9-4.5-2.6 106.83.57.1
 November 102.00.95.0 102.21.25.3 107.81.010.1
 December 103.71.77.0 100.6-1.50.7 114.25.918.9
              
2012January 100.3-3.31.2 94.9-5.7-9.2 110.5-3.215.3
 February 98.4-1.8-1.0 97.62.8-7.0 108.7-1.610.9
 March 102.23.92.6 107.29.93.7 108.5-0.27.6
 April 100.8-1.3-3.9 103.1-3.9-5.1 104.8-3.40.3
 May 103.02.22.6 109.46.23.5 109.84.89.1
 June 106.33.25.8 111.51.95.2 114.03.813.7
 July 101.3-4.7-2.7 106.1-4.8-7.0 108.2-5.17.4
 August 106.04.66.3 111.95.56.2 111.93.411.3
 September 107.21.26.2 111.5-0.35.5 112.20.38.8
 October 103.8-3.22.7 108.2-3.07.2 109.8-2.12.8
 November 105.61.83.6 110.21.97.9 110.40.62.5
 December3 105.5-0.11.7 110.0-0.29.4 107.2-2.9-6.1
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2012
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1 
       Base Year: 2010=100
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
   NACE 64-75 NACE 77-82
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
          
2009  119.1   97.2  
2010  100.1 -15.9 99.9 2.8
2011  101.1 1.0 92.7 -7.2
20123  90.5 -10.6 99.7 7.6
          
20114th quarter 99.0-0.91.4 92.01.3-3.8
          
20121st quarter 92.1-7.0-8.4 94.32.5-2.0
 2nd quarter 92.70.7-11.8 100.06.09.1
 3rd quarter 86.8-6.4-13.1 102.22.212.6
 4th quarter3 90.24.0-8.9 102.20.011.1
          
2011June 101.6-11.31.7 90.1-1.4-9.5
 July 101.50.013.1 87.0-3.5-15.3
 August 97.9-3.6-5.5 89.42.8-9.2
 September 100.32.5-7.3 95.97.3-1.8
 October 94.3-6.0-4.6 89.0-7.3-5.8
 November 97.23.0-2.3 90.92.1-3.3
 December 105.58.611.4 96.15.7-2.4
          
2012January 92.4-12.4-10.7 90.6-5.7-6.3
 February 90.4-2.3-9.8 94.74.5-0.5
 March 93.43.4-4.5 97.63.00.8
 April 92.2-1.3-7.2 98.30.75.0
 May 93.91.9-18.0 102.54.212.2
 June 92.1-2.0-9.3 99.2-3.210.1
 July 88.3-4.2-13.1 106.97.822.9
 August 85.7-2.9-12.5 102.0-4.614.1
 September 86.40.9-13.9 97.7-4.31.8
 October 90.85.1-3.7 104.46.917.4
 November 91.70.9-5.7 102.4-2.012.6
 December3 88.2-3.8-16.4 99.7-2.63.7
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2012  
2 NACE 7735 is excluded    
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents  
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1 
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
   NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2009  112.1   93.5   121.0  
2010  100.2 -10.6 99.5 6.5 99.8 -17.5
2011  103.8 3.6 103.2 3.6 100.6 0.8
20122  108.8 4.9 111.4 8.0 97.1 -3.5
              
20114th quarter 101.9-2.32.5 107.44.34.8 103.33.112.6
              
20121st quarter 102.40.4-2.3 109.92.311.9 104.00.69.3
 2nd quarter 110.07.55.7 110.80.86.5 94.9-8.7-8.5
 3rd quarter 112.82.58.1 110.2-0.57.0 93.4-1.6-6.8
 4th quarter2 110.1-2.48.0 114.84.26.9 96.23.0-6.9
              
2011June 104.2-0.49.5 106.20.82.5 102.6-0.60.7
 July 104.70.44.5 96.8-8.8-8.2 104.01.3-2.8
 August 103.5-1.23.6 107.110.59.4 98.5-5.3-0.6
 September 104.81.38.2 105.0-1.90.5 98.2-0.33.9
 October 102.5-2.32.9 103.7-1.34.4 99.41.20.2
 November 99.6-2.8-1.7 110.26.310.7 100.81.313.9
 December 103.74.16.6 108.4-1.6-0.1 109.89.025.2
              
2012January 99.8-3.8-4.8 108.60.29.6 104.9-4.515.0
 February 102.52.7-2.9 111.72.819.6 106.51.513.3
 March 104.82.30.9 109.3-2.17.1 100.5-5.60.5
 April 111.56.47.9 108.5-0.78.0 95.6-4.8-9.3
 May 107.9-3.23.2 112.53.66.7 94.4-1.3-8.6
 June 110.52.46.0 111.4-1.04.8 94.70.4-7.7
 July 112.31.67.2 108.0-3.011.5 91.8-3.1-11.8
 August 113.00.69.2 113.45.05.9 94.22.6-4.4
 September 113.00.07.8 109.1-3.73.9 94.20.1-4.1
 October 110.1-2.67.5 112.73.28.7 96.52.4-2.9
 November 110.0-0.110.5 113.50.83.0 98.01.5-2.8
 December2 110.10.16.2 118.34.29.2 94.0-4.1-14.4
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2012  
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents 

Background Notes

Introduction  

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

 

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

 

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

 

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp

 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-83)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

 

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2010. Using data taken from the 2010 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach. 

 

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows; respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2010 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2010 ASI, is applied. The reason for this change in methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

 

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

 

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau.  The ARIMA option in X-13ARIMA-SEATS is used to forecast and backcast the series in order to have sufficient data to run the seasonal adjustment, as currently we have less than five years of data. Due to the lack of a sufficiently long series the series are not adjusted for Easter and Trading effects.  The seasonal estimates do, however, take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

 

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

 

Rebase 2010 – Changes

The main reasons for differences in the new rebased and updated MSI series in comparison with the MSI (base year 2009 =100) are as follows:

  • New cell baseweights were taken from the ASI 2010.
  • A new cell structure/breakdown has been adopted for each sector.  Each enterprise is placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria:
  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000  and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA  is less than €2,500,000
  • The new baseweights are now updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA as opposed to changes in respondents’ reported turnover.
  • To keep with the classifications adopted by ASI 2010 a number of NACE sectors have been excluded from the updated MSI, i.e.
  • NACE 66 – Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • NACE 90 – Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • NACE 91 – Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • NACE 77 - Rental and leasing activities are no longer in Other Business Activities. NACE 77 is now included Administrative and Support Service Activities.
  • The inclusion of new and revised micro data.
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