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For more information on this release:
E-mail: business_stats@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Retail Sales Index

February 2018 (Provisional) January 2018 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index - All Businesses
 (Base Year 2015 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
February 2018111.0105.2
January 2018111.2106.2
February 2017108.8104.8
Monthly % change-0.2-1.0
Annual % change2.00.4

Retail Sales volume decreased by 0.2% in February 2018

Figure 1 Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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Seasonally adjusted, the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.2% in the month of February, with an annual increase of 2.0%. See Table 1. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was an increase of 0.6% in the volume of retail sales in February 2018 when compared with January 2018 and there was an increase of 6.3% in the annual figure. See Table 2.

The sectors with the largest monthly volume decreases were Books, Newspapers & Stationery (-6.2%) and Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-3.9%). See Table 3. The sectors with the largest month on month volume increases were Department Stores (5.9%) and Non-Specialised Stores (5.3%). 

There was a decrease of 1.0% in the value of retail sales in February 2018 when compared with January 2018 and there was an annual increase of 0.4% when compared with February 2017. If Motor Trades are excluded there was an increase of 0.5% in the month and an increase of 3.8% in the annual figure.

Unadjusted indices are available on CSO Statbank.

notepa
Business SectorsAnnual changeMonthly change
All Businesses2-0.2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades6.30.6
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars6.80.5
Motors & Fuel-2.7-2.6
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars7.10.7
Food Businesses6.21.9
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)7.8-0.4
Household Equipment12.8-0.7
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods5.5-0.5
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2015=100
  Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015Year 100.2   100.3  
2016Year 103.73.83.8 106.66.76.7
2017Year 104.30.60.6 109.72.92.9
        
20161st quarter 105.73.57.7 107.43.910.1
 2nd quarter 103.3-2.34.5 103.4-3.77.1
 3rd quarter 104.10.72.3 109.86.25.6
 4th quarter 101.6-2.3-0.5 105.8-3.62.4
          
20171st quarter 104.93.1-0.8 108.62.51.1
 2nd quarter 103.1-1.7-0.2 105.6-2.82.1
 3rd quarter 104.41.20.3 113.27.23.1
 4th quarter 104.80.43.0 111.3-1.65.2
         
2016September 101.2-3.1-1.1 104.8-3.01.3
 October 101.30.1-0.3 105.70.82.3
 November 101.70.4-0.1 106.20.42.5
 December 102.10.3-0.8 105.8-0.42.7
        
2017January 106.64.40.8 109.43.53.1
 February 104.8-1.7-2.7 108.8-0.6-1.0
 March 103.2-1.5-0.5 107.4-1.31.4
 April 103.30.1-2.2 106.4-1.00.1
 May 104.30.9-0.5 109.02.51.9
 June 101.8-2.42.4 101.4-7.04.6
 July 105.63.8-0.8 119.718.12.8
 August 104.5-1.00.1 110.7-7.52.4
 September 103.0-1.51.7 109.2-1.34.2
 October 103.30.31.9 109.90.74.0
 November 105.92.64.1 112.42.25.9
 December 105.2-0.73.1 111.7-0.65.6
          
2018January 106.20.9-0.4 111.2-0.41.6
February2105.2-1.00.4 111.0-0.22.0
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to February 2018    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2015=100
  Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015Year 99.3   99.5  
2016Year 99.50.10.1 102.73.23.2
2017Year 101.52.02.0 107.14.34.3
         
20161st quarter 100.2-0.83.4 103.72.66.2
 2nd quarter 100.0-0.21.0 102.8-0.84.4
 3rd quarter 99.2-0.7-1.0 102.4-0.41.7
 4th quarter 98.9-0.3-2.1 102.2-0.31.1
          
20171st quarter 100.11.2-0.1 104.62.40.9
 2nd quarter 101.11.01.1 106.61.93.7
 3rd quarter 101.60.62.4 107.71.15.2
 4th quarter 102.91.34.1 109.01.26.7
         
2016September 98.3-2.7-2.2 101.6-2.90.6
 October 98.70.3-2.0 101.90.30.9
 November 99.10.5-2.0 102.20.31.7
 December 98.9-0.2-2.3 102.40.20.6
        
2017January 100.31.40.6 104.62.11.6
 February 99.9-0.4-0.7 104.3-0.30.0
 March 100.00.1-0.2 105.00.71.1
 April 100.30.30.0 105.30.32.1
 May 101.51.20.4 107.21.82.9
 June 101.4-0.12.9 107.30.06.1
 July 101.50.13.3 107.60.36.5
 August 101.70.20.5 107.70.12.9
 September 101.70.13.5 107.90.26.2
 October 101.90.23.3 107.7-0.25.7
 November 104.42.45.3 110.22.37.8
 December 102.5-1.83.6 109.1-1.06.5
          
2018January 103.20.62.8 110.21.05.4
 February2 103.70.53.8 110.80.66.3
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to February 2018
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Provisional Results February 2018
   Base Year: 2015=100
 February 2018
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades108.4-2.1-4.8 111.9-3.6-3.0
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) 111.44.36.6 117.05.37.6
Department Stores 99.45.22.8 111.75.97.2
Food, Beverages & Tobacco94.4-4.5-3.8 102.1-3.9-1.7
Fuel108.60.72.5 105.50.32.1
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles105.21.43.5 115.2-2.77.7
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles105.2-1.8-0.5 113.7-1.73.4
Furniture & Lighting126.40.96.0 139.4-1.712.2
Hardware, Paints & Glass117.01.37.3 125.61.49.5
Electrical Goods99.1-5.40.9 130.9-3.213.3
Books, Newspapers & Stationery93.1-6.3-3.3 93.6-6.2-5.5
Other Retail Sales79.10.98.3 88.2-0.27.3
Bars 107.53.40.5 105.6-0.5-1.8
All Businesses 105.2-1.00.4 111.0-0.22.0
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades103.70.53.8 110.80.66.3
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars103.60.64.1 111.30.56.8
Motors & Fuel108.1-1.4-4.3 111.3-2.6-2.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars103.30.64.3 111.60.77.1
Food Businesses108.51.65.4 113.61.96.2
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)98.7-0.63.5 109.8-0.47.8
Household Equipment110.4-1.04.4 132.0-0.712.8
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods81.10.46.6 89.4-0.55.5
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to February 2018, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Final Results January 2018
   Base Year: 2015=100
 January 2018
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades110.71.0-2.7 116.10.3-3.1
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) 106.8-0.93.7 111.0-0.55.1
Department Stores 94.5-2.4-0.7 105.5-2.03.2
Food, Beverages & Tobacco98.90.9-0.1 106.22.51.7
Fuel107.82.91.5 105.21.10.5
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles103.8-0.30.9 118.46.85.3
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles107.21.23.1 115.71.26.3
Furniture & Lighting125.31.29.7 141.93.315.3
Hardware, Paints & Glass115.53.79.8 123.91.512.2
Electrical Goods104.87.44.7 135.26.215.2
Books, Newspapers & Stationery99.3-0.23.9 99.80.32.7
Other Retail Sales78.3-1.75.2 88.417.85.3
Bars 103.9-4.7-3.5 106.10.2-5.8
All Businesses 106.20.9-0.4 111.2-0.41.6
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades103.20.62.8 110.21.05.4
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars103.00.73.3 110.71.36.1
Motors & Fuel109.60.6-3.1 114.30.5-2.4
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars102.70.63.4 110.90.96.4
Food Businesses106.8-0.13.6 111.50.55.1
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)99.30.83.3 110.21.17.8
Household Equipment111.41.26.5 132.91.314.9
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods80.8-0.55.0 89.918.34.9
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to February 2018, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - 3 Monthly Provisional Estimates
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2015=100
 December 2017 - February 2018
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
Motor Trades109.6-0.6-2.9 114.7-1.4-3.5
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. supermarkets) 108.61.44.8 113.12.06.2
Department Stores 96.9-0.71.4 108.20.76.2
Food, Beverages & Tobacco97.2-1.5-1.6 104.0-0.81.2
Fuel106.94.52.5 104.91.60.5
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles104.4-2.81.7 114.50.06.0
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles106.12.21.6 114.62.25.5
Furniture & Lighting125.04.99.7 139.32.016.6
Hardware, Paints & Glass114.43.49.2 123.73.711.2
Electrical Goods100.2-6.73.2 130.9-2.015.5
Books, Newspapers & Stationery97.5-0.32.2 97.8-0.41.2
Other Retail Sales79.12.04.3 83.23.05.7
Bars 107.0-2.70.8 105.80.6-1.4
All Businesses 105.51.41.2 111.30.83.2
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades103.10.53.4 110.01.36.1
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars102.90.83.6 110.41.46.6
Motors & Fuel108.91.0-2.4 113.2-0.1-2.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars102.60.53.7 110.81.57.0
Food Businesses107.41.04.2 111.91.45.7
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)98.80.23.3 109.60.98.1
Household Equipment110.60.26.1 132.01.914.7
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods81.02.14.2 84.41.75.1
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to February 2018, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) has been introduced in the January 2018 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis, allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The January 2018 period covers the 4 weeks from 31/12/17 to 27/01/18 and the February 2018 period covers the 4 weeks from 28/01/18 to 24/02/18.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2015=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a matched sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity, and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by exclusively online retailers, hawkers, street stalls, and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The RSI does include internet/online sales of enterprises which have a presence in Ireland but these sales are included under the primary activity of the enterprise, e.g. online grocery sales are included in Non Specialised Stores. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges. The following NACE Rev.2 categories apply:

  • Motor Trades - Sale, maintenance and repair of new and second-hand vehicles and motorcycles (NACE 45)
  • Non-Specialised Stores - Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating - mainly supermarkets (NACE 47.11)
  • Department Stores -  Retail sale of a large variety of goods of which food products, beverages or tobacco are not predominant activities of the department stores. Retail sale of a general line of merchandise, including wearing apparel, furniture, appliances, hardware, cosmetics, jewellery, toys, sports goods, etc. (NACE 47.19)
  • Food, Beverages & Tobacco -  Retail sale of fruit and vegetables, meat and meat products, fish, crustaceans and molluscs, bread, cakes, flour and sugar confectionery, and beverages in specialised stores (NACE 47.2)
  • Fuel - Retail sale of fuel and lubricating products and cooling products for motor vehicles and motorcycles. Excludes wholesale of fuels (NACE 47.3)
  • Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles - Retail sale of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.73 - 75)
  • Clothing, Footwear & Textiles – Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.51, 47.71 – 72)
  • Furniture & Lighting - Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.59)
  • Hardware, Paints & Glass - Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores (NACE 47.52)
  • Electrical Goods – Retail sale of information and communication equipment, computers, peripheral units and software, telecommunications equipment, audio and video equipment and electrical household appliances in specialised stores (NACE 47.41-43, 47.54)
  • Books, Newspapers & Stationery – Retail sale of books excluding second-hand or antique books, retail sale of office supplies such as pens, pencils, paper, etc. (NACE 47.61 -.62)
  • Other Retail Sales – Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings, music and video recordings, games and toys, flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food, jewellery, and other new goods in specialised stores. The retail sale activities via mail order or via Internet (NACE 47.53, 47.63-65, 47.76-8, 47.91)
  • Bars – Preparation and serving of beverages for immediate consumption on the premises (NACE 56.3)

 For a full NACE Rev2 breakdown of the above categories see attached link to the Retail Sales Index Methodological Documents.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2015 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2015 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2010 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-13-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, to the unadjusted data. For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, such as:

  • Calendar effects e.g. the timing of Easter
  • The phase shift effect i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month
  • Outliers, temporary changes, and level shifts in the series
  • Adequate data available to create a seasonally adjusted series such as in the Motor Trade sector. 
 
Note: The Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 70% of turnover.
 
 Rebase 2015

The rebasing of the series is in line with EU recommendations to update the base reference periods at regular five-year intervals. This new series replaces the existing series to base year 2010 as 100.

The difference in the new rebased RSI series is the use of new cell and sector baseweights taken from the ASI 2015. The existing cell structure/breakdown was maintained in this series.

The new baseweights are updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly turnover. The rebase also includes the reclassification of enterprises based on their current product profile.

Detail of the methodology used in the RSI are available on  Methodological Documents page.

 Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the Retail Sales Index  page.  Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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