Background Notes

Introduction

This release provides figures for the re-offending rates of those placed on Probation Orders, and Community Service Orders in the year 2010, (the 2010 cohort). Comparisons with the figures for the 2009 cohort are also provided. These figures were produced using a combination of Garda Síochána and Probation Service records, based on the Irish Crime Classification System (ICCS).  The majority of those under probation in relation to sex offences are not included in this analysis.  Likewise, when considering re-offending, certain road traffic offences are also excluded. 

The term “offences” in this report refers only to crime incidents known to An Garda Síochána and recorded as such in the Garda PULSE (Police Using Leading Systems Effectively) system.  Because of timing issues with respect to the extraction of data, figures may be revised subsequent to this publication. 

Data collection

The production of these statistics involved the combination of Garda PULSE and Probation CTS (Case Tracking System) data.  Since there is no direct link between the two systems, a statistical matching protocol was devised by the CSO to match Probation and Garda records.  For this report, Probation and Community Service Orders from 2010 were linked from Probation CTS to their corresponding entries in the Garda PULSE system.  Numerous quality control tests were then conducted to verify the accuracy of this matching system, in addition to various consultations with academics specializing in criminology. 

Recidivism/Reoffending

For this report, a re-offender is defined as an individual who committed a recorded offence within three years of commencing probation; and who is convicted in court proceedings that commenced within two years of the offence date.  For example, if a person was placed on a Probation or Community Service Order on December 31^st 2010, and committed an offence on the December 31^st 2013, they would be considered as having re-offended if court proceedings leading to a conviction commenced within a two year period.

Court proceedings leading to a conviction

From Garda PULSE, the court date is used to mark the commencement of criminal proceedings.  Court proceedings leading to a conviction do not include those cases where appeals are pending.  T he fact that an individual is suspected of committing an offence is not enough evidence for re-offender status to be designated; a conviction must have been secured. 

Probation type

This report considers two types of probation:  Probation Orders and Community Service Orders.  These represent the vast majority of individuals under Probation Service supervision.  However, certain categories are not included, most notably sex offender orders. 

Crime recording

Incidents reported or which become known to members of An Garda Síochána are recorded when, on the balance of probability, a Garda determines that a criminal offence defined by law has taken place, and there is no credible evidence to the contrary.  If it is subsequently determined that a criminal offence did not take place, the criminal offence recorded is invalidated and is not counted in the statistics.  If a person makes a report and subsequently withdraws it by stating that the criminal act did not take place, then this too is invalidated unless there is evidence to suggest that, by reasonable probability, the offence has taken place. 

For criminal offences where victim confirmation is required (e.g. assault, fraud), a criminal offence is recorded only where the victim confirms the offence or where there is evidence to suggest that by reasonable probability it occurred. Another important feature of a recorded offence is that it is based on the date reported to, or that it became known to, the Gardaí.  This has major implications for some offence types.  Notable amongst these are sexual offences, as it has often been the case that such incidents have been reported to An Garda Síochána many years (sometimes decades) after the event(s).  Thus a sexual assault, which occurred in 1960, would be included in the statistics for 2008 if it was first reported in that year.

Crime Classification

A criminal offence is classified as a particular offence type at the initial recording of that offence.  However, upon investigation, it may later become apparent that an alternative offence type should be used.  In this event, the record is amended to reflect this.  Re-classification on the basis of court proceedings only occurs in relation to homicide offences.  A murder offence is reclassified as manslaughter when a charge of manslaughter commences or when a murder charge results in a conviction for manslaughter  It is also possible, though more rare, that an incident originally classified as manslaughter may be re-classified as murder.  Also, a re-classification to a homicide offence occurs when, for example, a serious assault has been recorded and, some time later, the victim dies as a consequence of the assault. 

General Counting Rules

Crime counting rules are applied to all criminal offences for the purposes of the statistics.  The following are the main rules relevant to the quarterly figures: 

Primary Offence Rule:  Where two or more criminal offences are disclosed in a single episode, it is the primary criminal offence that is counted.  The primary offence is that offence which the greater penalty may apply.  Where offences have similar penalties, offences against the person take precedence over offences against property for the purpose of determining the primary offence. 

One Offence Counts Per Victim:  One offence counts per victim involved with the exceptions of cheque/credit card fraud and burglary.  Under certain circumstances, the cheque/credit card exception necessitates that a series of these offences counts as one crime where the originating bank ultimately suffers the loss.  The burglary exception dictates that one burglary offence is counted where property belonging to two or more victims is stolen (or damaged) during a single burglary. 

Continuous Series Involving the Same Victim and Same Offender:  A continuous series of offences against the same victim involving the same offender counts as one offence.

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