This release was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic. For further information on the methodology applied in this release see the Technical Note on Monthly Unemployment Estimates March 2022. For more information please also see the Press Statement Monthly Unemployment March 2022 and the Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Live Register and the Monthly Unemployment Estimates.
Seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed | Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) | ||
March 2021 | 188,500 | 7.7 | |
February 2022 | 135,200 | 5.2 | |
March 2022 | 146,400 | 5.5 | |
Percentage Points | |||
Change in month | 11,200 | 0.3 | |
Change in year | - 42,100 | - 2.2 |
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March 2022 was 5.5%, up from a rate of 5.2% in February 2022 and down from 7.7% in March 2021.The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 146,400 in March 2022, compared to 135,200 in February 2022. When compared to March 2021, there was an annual decrease of 42,100 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed.
Summary points for March
The methodology for the Monthly Unemployment Estimates involves forecasting the number of persons who are unemployed using the trend in the recipient Live Register series.
As the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) scheme has ceased, the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, (previously published in Table A1 of the Monthly Unemployment Estimates release and PxStat series MUM02), is no longer available. This alternative COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment was published for the reference months March 2020 until February 2022.
Data in this release are subject to revision, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series, whenever new monthly data are added. In addition, it should be noted that larger revisions can occur when the most recent Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are included in the calculation process. The monthly unemployment estimates published today for March 2022 have incorporated LFS benchmarks up to Q4 2021 for the monthly estimates up to December 2021 while the estimates for January, February and March 2022 have been forecasted. |
Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years | |||||||||
Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
2020 | March | 64,600 | 54,900 | 119,500 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | ||
April | 60,700 | 46,400 | 107,100 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | |||
May | 62,400 | 48,600 | 111,000 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |||
June | 69,200 | 57,600 | 126,800 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | |||
July | 83,000 | 75,000 | 158,000 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.7 | |||
August | 89,800 | 83,200 | 173,000 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | |||
September | 93,700 | 84,200 | 178,000 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | |||
October | 83,700 | 70,300 | 154,000 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | |||
November | 82,000 | 67,000 | 148,900 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | |||
December | 81,100 | 67,700 | 148,800 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | |||
2021 | January | 88,100 | 77,900 | 165,900 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | ||
February | 94,900 | 85,300 | 180,200 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | |||
March | 99,500 | 89,000 | 188,500 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.7 | |||
April | 101,900 | 86,000 | 187,900 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 | |||
May | 96,400 | 78,600 | 175,000 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | |||
June | 88,800 | 72,200 | 161,000 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.3 | |||
July | 81,200 | 67,600 | 148,800 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | |||
August | 74,900 | 65,700 | 140,600 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | |||
September | 73,200 | 61,800 | 135,100 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | |||
October | 72,700 | 63,400 | 136,100 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |||
November | 72,200 | 64,500 | 136,700 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |||
December | 70,400 | 64,800 | 135,300 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | |||
2022 | January | 69,800 | 67,100 | 136,900 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | ||
February | 67,700 | 67,400 | 135,200 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | |||
March | 73,200 | 73,100 | 146,400 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years | |||||||||
Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
2020 | March | 19,500 | 15,900 | 35,400 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 12.3 | ||
April | 14,900 | 17,000 | 31,900 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 13.3 | |||
May | 14,100 | 18,700 | 32,800 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 14.9 | |||
June | 17,800 | 20,600 | 38,400 | 15.3 | 18.5 | 16.9 | |||
July | 27,600 | 22,900 | 50,500 | 20.7 | 18.0 | 19.4 | |||
August | 31,500 | 24,200 | 55,800 | 22.1 | 18.0 | 20.1 | |||
September | 33,600 | 26,200 | 59,700 | 22.8 | 18.9 | 20.9 | |||
October | 24,700 | 22,900 | 47,500 | 17.7 | 17.5 | 17.6 | |||
November | 21,100 | 23,200 | 44,300 | 15.4 | 18.1 | 16.7 | |||
December | 17,400 | 22,900 | 40,400 | 13.0 | 18.1 | 15.5 | |||
2021 | January | 17,000 | 25,500 | 42,500 | 12.6 | 19.5 | 16.0 | ||
February | 20,500 | 27,100 | 47,600 | 14.6 | 20.2 | 17.3 | |||
March | 25,300 | 28,300 | 53,600 | 17.2 | 20.4 | 18.7 | |||
April | 30,700 | 29,300 | 60,100 | 19.7 | 20.3 | 20.0 | |||
May | 29,900 | 26,000 | 55,900 | 18.5 | 17.7 | 18.1 | |||
June | 27,400 | 22,700 | 50,100 | 16.3 | 14.8 | 15.6 | |||
July | 23,600 | 19,200 | 42,800 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 12.9 | |||
August | 20,000 | 17,900 | 37,800 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 11.2 | |||
September | 20,100 | 17,200 | 37,300 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 10.9 | |||
October | 20,900 | 19,000 | 39,900 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | |||
November | 21,800 | 20,800 | 42,600 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 12.2 | |||
December | 21,500 | 22,400 | 43,900 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | |||
2022 | January | 21,800 | 25,100 | 46,900 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 13.0 | ||
February | 21,100 | 25,300 | 46,400 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 12.7 | |||
March | 20,200 | 25,400 | 45,600 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 12.3 |
Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years | |||||||||
Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
2020 | March | 45,100 | 38,900 | 84,100 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
April | 45,800 | 29,400 | 75,200 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
May | 48,300 | 29,900 | 78,200 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | |||
June | 51,400 | 37,000 | 88,400 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.4 | |||
July | 55,400 | 52,100 | 107,500 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | |||
August | 58,300 | 58,900 | 117,200 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | |||
September | 60,200 | 58,100 | 118,200 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | |||
October | 59,000 | 47,400 | 106,500 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |||
November | 60,900 | 43,800 | 104,700 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | |||
December | 63,600 | 44,800 | 108,400 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | |||
2021 | January | 71,100 | 52,400 | 123,500 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | ||
February | 74,400 | 58,200 | 132,600 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | |||
March | 74,200 | 60,700 | 134,900 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | |||
April | 71,200 | 56,700 | 127,900 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.8 | |||
May | 66,400 | 52,600 | 119,000 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | |||
June | 61,400 | 49,600 | 111,000 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.0 | |||
July | 57,600 | 48,400 | 106,000 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | |||
August | 54,900 | 47,900 | 102,800 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | |||
September | 53,200 | 44,600 | 97,800 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | |||
October | 51,800 | 44,400 | 96,200 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | |||
November | 50,400 | 43,700 | 94,100 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | |||
December | 49,000 | 42,400 | 91,400 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
2022 | January | 47,900 | 42,000 | 90,000 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
February | 46,600 | 42,100 | 88,800 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | |||
March | 53,000 | 47,700 | 100,700 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly LFS unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding LFS estimate.
For months where the quarterly unemployment data are not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.
Please see the Technical Note published alongside the August 2020 release which outlines minor changes made to the methodology used for results presented in this release following analysis of recipient and non-recipient claims in the Live Register Series.
To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted. To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.
Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Unemployment series during the COVID-19 crisis period will be challenging until the scale and shape of its impact on the time series is better understood. This initial seasonally adjusted result might be revised for some months ahead as future observations become available. Users should be aware that there is increased uncertainty around the seasonally adjusted figures during this period.
Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release.
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