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For more information on this release:
E-mail: labour@cso.ie Catalina Gonzalez (+353) 87 646 7535 Martina O'Callaghan (+353) 21 453 5491
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-8456
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Unemployment

March 2020

Seasonally Adjusted FiguresNon Seasonally Adjusted Figures
 Number of persons unemployed Unemployment rate (%)Traditional Unemployment rate (%) COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rate (%)
March 2019120,300 5.0   
February 2020119,600 4.8   
March 2020136,600 5.45.2 16.5
   Percentage Points   
Change in month 17,000  0.6   
Change in year16,300  0.4   

COVID-19 crisis impacts labour market in March 2020

Figure 1 Monthly Unemployment  rate seasonally adjusted
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The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in March 2020. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.4% in March 2020, a new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 16.5% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed.

The application of the standard methodology for Monthly Unemployment, shows a seasonally adjusted Monthly Unemployment Rate for March 2020 of 5.4%, up from 4.8% in February 2020 and up from 5.0% in March 2019. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 136,600 in March 2020, compared to 119,600 in February 2020. When compared to March 2019, there was an annual increase of 16,300 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed. In March 2020, the Monthly Unemployment Rate for males and females were 5.5% and 5.4% respectively, see Table 1(a).

Breaking the results down by broad age group, the Monthly Unemployment Rate for those aged 15 to 24 years was 13.2%, while it was 4.3% for those aged 25 to 74 years, see Tables 1(b) and 1(c)

As well as the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates for March 2020, this release also presents an alternative COVID-19 adjusted unemployment measure estimating the share of the labour force in March 2020 that were not working due to unemployment or who were out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment. These estimates are presented in Table A1.

The lower bound of Monthly Unemployment rates and volumes presented in Table A1 are the non-seasonally adjusted estimates for March 2020 based on the standard Methodology. These lower bounds are based on the assumption that none of those in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment would have been classified as unemployed if the payment did not exist.

If all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed, this new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 15.4% for males and 17.8% for females in March 2020. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment is 34.0% for those aged 15 to 24 years and 14.1% for those aged 25 to 74 years. See Table A1.

Data in this release are subject to revision, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series, whenever new monthly data are added. In addition, it should be noted that larger revisions can occur when the most recent Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are included in the calculation process. 

For further information on Covid -19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, please refer to our Technical Note and Information Note.

Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2018March76,60062,700139,300 6.05.85.9
 April77,40062,400139,900 6.05.75.9
 May77,50062,400139,900 6.05.75.9
 June75,90062,100138,000 5.95.65.8
 July74,20062,100136,300 5.85.65.7
 August72,90062,400135,200 5.75.75.7
 September72,10063,200135,300 5.65.75.7
 October72,60063,900136,500 5.65.85.7
 November72,30063,300135,600 5.65.75.7
 December72,20059,400131,600 5.65.45.5
 
2019January70,90053,300124,200 5.44.85.1
 February69,30050,700120,000 5.34.55.0
 March69,60050,700120,300 5.34.55.0
 April69,50056,200125,700 5.35.15.2
 May68,80056,000124,800 5.35.15.2
 June69,10055,700124,700 5.35.05.2
 July69,90053,500123,500 5.34.85.1
 August69,30051,100120,400 5.34.65.0
 September67,80049,800117,700 5.14.44.8
 October65,00050,300115,300 4.94.54.7
 November64,20050,700114,900 4.84.54.7
 December65,20051,600116,800 4.94.54.7
 
2020January66,70052,700119,300 5.04.64.8
 February66,60053,000119,600 5.04.64.8
 March73,70062,900136,600 5.55.45.4
Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2018March21,60017,50039,000 14.713.614.2
 April21,40016,90038,300 14.513.113.8
 May21,40017,00038,400 14.412.813.7
 June21,40016,80038,200 14.412.413.4
 July22,00017,30039,300 14.712.413.6
 August22,50017,40040,000 15.112.413.7
 September22,90017,20040,000 15.212.313.8
 October23,10016,60039,700 15.112.213.8
 November22,90015,80038,800 15.011.913.6
 December23,00015,00038,000 15.011.213.2
 
2019January22,20014,00036,200 14.510.312.5
 February21,70013,60035,300 14.29.912.2
 March23,00014,50037,500 15.110.512.9
 April24,10015,50039,700 16.111.213.8
 May24,20015,80040,000 16.311.413.9
 June23,70015,70039,300 15.811.313.6
 July22,60015,00037,500 14.710.912.9
 August21,20014,40035,700 13.810.512.3
 September19,90014,20034,100 12.910.311.7
 October17,90014,30032,200 11.910.011.0
 November17,60014,70032,300 11.710.010.9
 December18,60015,30033,900 12.310.211.2
 
2020January19,70015,50035,300 12.910.111.5
 February19,90015,20035,100 12.99.811.4
 March22,20019,20041,400 14.312.113.2
Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2018March55,10045,200100,300 4.84.74.8
 April56,00045,600101,600 4.94.74.8
 May56,10045,500101,500 4.94.74.8
 June54,50045,30099,800 4.84.74.7
 July52,20044,80097,000 4.64.74.6
 August50,30044,90095,300 4.44.74.5
 September49,30046,00095,300 4.34.84.5
 October49,50047,30096,800 4.34.94.6
 November49,40047,50096,900 4.34.94.6
 December49,20044,50093,600 4.34.64.4
 
2019January48,60039,40088,000 4.24.04.1
 February47,60037,10084,600 4.13.84.0
 March46,60036,20082,800 4.03.73.9
 April45,40040,60086,000 3.94.24.0
 May44,60040,20084,800 3.94.14.0
 June45,40040,00085,400 3.94.14.0
 July47,40038,60085,900 4.13.94.0
 August48,00036,70084,700 4.13.74.0
 September48,00035,60083,600 4.13.63.9
 October47,10036,00083,000 4.03.73.8
 November46,60036,00082,600 4.03.73.8
 December46,60036,30083,000 4.03.73.8
 
2020January46,90037,10084,000 4.03.73.9
 February46,70037,80084,500 3.93.83.9
 March51,50043,60095,100 4.34.34.3
Table A1 Covid-19 Adjusted Monthly Unemployment Estimates classified by sex and age group - March 2020
  Number of persons out of work1 Monthly Unemployment Rate %1
  MalesFemalesTotal MalesFemalesTotal
Persons aged 15-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)70,51859,475129,993 5.35.25.2
 Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)206,449206,581413,030 15.417.816.5
 
Persons aged 15-24 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)19,92416,80836,732 13.710.912.3
 Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)48,32453,465101,789 33.234.834.0
 
Persons aged 25-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)50,59442,66793,261 4.24.24.2
 Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)158,125153,116311,241 13.215.214.1
1 Not seasonally adjusted        

Background Notes

Purpose

The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes. 

Calculation of Monthly Estimates

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly LFS unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding LFS estimate.

For months where the quarterly unemployment data is not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.

Seasonal Adjustment

To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted.  To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.

Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Unemployment series during the Covid-19 crisis period will be challenging until the scale and shape of its impact on the time series is better understood. This initial seasonally adjusted result might be revised for some months ahead as future observations become available. Users should be aware that there is increased uncertainty around the seasonally adjusted figures during this period.

Additional Background Information

Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release, while specific information regarding the new LFS and the impact of the revisions arising from the Census of Population 2016 is available in an additional information note.

 

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