This release was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic. For further information on the methodology applied in this release see the Technical Note on Monthly Unemployment Estimates and COVID-19 that was published alongside the March 2020 Monthly Unemployment Estimates release. For more information please also see the Press Statement Monthly Unemployment June 2020 and the Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Live Register and the Monthly Unemployment Estimates.
| Seasonally Adjusted Figures | Non Seasonally Adjusted Figures | |||||
| Number of persons unemployed | Unemployment rate (%) | Traditional Unemployment rate (%) | COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rate (%) | |||
| June 2019 | 124,200 | 5.1 | - | - | ||
| May 2020 | 137,800 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 26.1 | ||
| June 2020 | 131,200 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 22.5 | ||
| Percentage Points | Percentage Points | |||||
| Change in month | -6,600 | -0.3 | 0.0 | - 3.6 | ||
| Change in year | 7,000 | 0.2 | - | - | ||
The COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in June 2020. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.3% in June 2020, a new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 22.5% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed.
The application of the standard methodology for Monthly Unemployment, shows a seasonally adjusted Monthly Unemployment Rate for June 2020 of 5.3%, down from 5.6% in May 2020 and up from 5.1% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 131,200 in June 2020, compared to 137,800 in May 2020. When compared to June 2019, there was an annual increase of 7,000 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed. In June 2020 the Monthly Unemployment Rate for males and females were 5.2% and 5.4% respectively, see Table 1(a).
Breaking the results down by broad age group, the Monthly Unemployment Rate for those aged 15 to 24 years was 12.8%, while it was 4.2% for those aged 25 to 74 years, see Tables 1(b) and 1(c).
The methodology for the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates involves forecasting the number of persons who are unemployed using the trend in the Live Register.
As well as the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates for June 2020, this release also presents an alternative COVID-19 adjusted unemployment measure estimating the share of the labour force in June 2020 that were not working due to unemployment or who were out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment. These estimates are presented in Table A1.
The lower bound of Monthly Unemployment rates and volumes presented in Table A1 are the non-seasonally adjusted estimates for June 2020 based on the standard Methodology. These lower bounds are based on the assumption that none of those in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment who are not already included on the Live Register would have been classified as unemployed if the payment did not exist.
If all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment who are not already included on the Live Register were classified as unemployed, the upper bound, or COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 21.8% for males and 23.5% for females in June 2020. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment is 45.4% for those aged 15 to 24 years and 19.2% for those aged 25 to 74 years. See Table A1.
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Data in this release are subject to revision, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series, whenever new monthly data are added. In addition, it should be noted that larger revisions can occur when the most recent Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are included in the calculation process. For further information on Covid -19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, please refer to our Technical Note and Information Note . |
| Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2018 | June | 75,500 | 62,300 | 137,800 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | ||
| July | 73,900 | 62,300 | 136,200 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | |||
| August | 72,700 | 62,900 | 135,600 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | |||
| September | 72,100 | 63,500 | 135,600 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | |||
| October | 72,200 | 63,800 | 136,000 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | |||
| November | 72,400 | 62,500 | 134,900 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| December | 72,300 | 59,200 | 131,500 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
| 2019 | January | 71,600 | 53,200 | 124,700 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | ||
| February | 70,700 | 50,900 | 121,700 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |||
| March | 70,100 | 50,900 | 121,000 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |||
| April | 69,200 | 56,200 | 125,400 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | |||
| May | 68,200 | 55,600 | 123,900 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | |||
| June | 68,400 | 55,800 | 124,200 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | |||
| July | 69,400 | 53,700 | 123,100 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | |||
| August | 69,000 | 51,800 | 120,800 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |||
| September | 67,900 | 50,400 | 118,300 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | |||
| October | 64,900 | 50,500 | 115,300 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | |||
| November | 64,400 | 50,000 | 114,400 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | |||
| December | 65,100 | 50,700 | 115,800 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | |||
| 2020 | January | 67,800 | 51,600 | 119,400 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | ||
| February | 67,300 | 51,700 | 118,900 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | |||
| March | 71,200 | 59,200 | 130,400 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | |||
| April | 72,100 | 61,200 | 133,200 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |||
| May | 73,700 | 64,200 | 137,800 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| June | 69,900 | 61,400 | 131,200 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | |||
| Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2018 | June | 21,200 | 16,600 | 37,800 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 13.3 | ||
| July | 21,800 | 17,200 | 39,100 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 13.5 | |||
| August | 22,500 | 17,600 | 40,100 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 13.8 | |||
| September | 23,000 | 17,300 | 40,300 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 13.9 | |||
| October | 23,100 | 16,600 | 39,700 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 13.8 | |||
| November | 23,300 | 15,500 | 38,800 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 13.6 | |||
| December | 23,200 | 15,000 | 38,200 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 13.3 | |||
| 2019 | January | 22,700 | 14,000 | 36,700 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 12.7 | ||
| February | 22,500 | 14,000 | 36,600 | 14.7 | 10.1 | 12.5 | |||
| March | 22,900 | 14,700 | 37,700 | 15.1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | |||
| April | 23,500 | 15,800 | 39,300 | 15.8 | 11.3 | 13.6 | |||
| May | 23,600 | 15,400 | 39,100 | 16.0 | 11.1 | 13.6 | |||
| June | 23,300 | 15,300 | 38,600 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 13.3 | |||
| July | 22,400 | 14,800 | 37,200 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 12.8 | |||
| August | 21,300 | 14,600 | 35,900 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 12.4 | |||
| September | 20,000 | 14,500 | 34,500 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | |||
| October | 17,700 | 14,600 | 32,400 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 11.0 | |||
| November | 17,900 | 14,500 | 32,400 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 11.0 | |||
| December | 19,300 | 14,800 | 34,000 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 11.3 | |||
| 2020 | January | 22,700 | 14,800 | 37,500 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 12.2 | ||
| February | 22,800 | 14,200 | 37,000 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | |||
| March | 22,800 | 15,800 | 38,700 | 14.0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | |||
| April | 22,200 | 15,700 | 37,900 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 12.5 | |||
| May | 23,500 | 16,700 | 40,200 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 13.2 | |||
| June | 22,900 | 16,400 | 39,300 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | |||
| Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2018 | June | 54,300 | 45,700 | 100,000 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | ||
| July | 52,000 | 45,100 | 97,100 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | |||
| August | 50,100 | 45,400 | 95,500 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | |||
| September | 49,100 | 46,200 | 95,200 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | |||
| October | 49,100 | 47,200 | 96,300 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | |||
| November | 49,100 | 47,000 | 96,100 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | |||
| December | 49,100 | 44,200 | 93,300 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | |||
| 2019 | January | 48,900 | 39,200 | 88,100 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | ||
| February | 48,200 | 36,900 | 85,100 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 | |||
| March | 47,100 | 36,100 | 83,300 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | |||
| April | 45,700 | 40,400 | 86,100 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | |||
| May | 44,600 | 40,200 | 84,800 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | |||
| June | 45,100 | 40,500 | 85,600 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | |||
| July | 47,000 | 38,900 | 85,900 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| August | 47,700 | 37,200 | 84,900 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 | |||
| September | 47,900 | 35,900 | 83,800 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | |||
| October | 47,100 | 35,800 | 83,000 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | |||
| November | 46,500 | 35,500 | 82,000 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | |||
| December | 45,900 | 35,900 | 81,800 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | |||
| 2020 | January | 45,200 | 36,800 | 81,900 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||
| February | 44,500 | 37,500 | 81,900 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | |||
| March | 48,400 | 43,300 | 91,700 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | |||
| April | 49,800 | 45,500 | 95,300 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | |||
| May | 50,200 | 47,500 | 97,700 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | |||
| June | 47,000 | 45,000 | 91,900 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | |||
| Table A1 Covid-19 Adjusted Monthly Unemployment Estimates classified by sex and age group | |||||||||
| Number of persons out of work1 | Monthly Unemployment Rate %1 | ||||||||
| Month | Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |||
| June 2020 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 77,431 | 67,063 | 144,494 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 292,577 | 266,817 | 559,394 | 21.8 | 23.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 29,246 | 22,086 | 51,332 | 17.3 | 14.6 | 16.0 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 74,726 | 70,763 | 145,489 | 44.3 | 46.7 | 45.4 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 48,185 | 44,977 | 93,162 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 217,851 | 196,054 | 413,905 | 18.5 | 19.9 | 19.2 | |||
| May 20202 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 78,867 | 65,661 | 144,528 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 356,356 | 289,347 | 645,703 | 26.6 | 25.5 | 26.1 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 28,677 | 20,241 | 48,918 | 17.6 | 13.6 | 15.7 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 84,292 | 74,203 | 158,495 | 51.9 | 50.0 | 51.0 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 50,190 | 45,420 | 95,610 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 272,064 | 215,144 | 487,208 | 23.1 | 21.8 | 22.5 | |||
| April 20202 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 72,963 | 59,685 | 132,648 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 398,817 | 295,866 | 694,683 | 30.0 | 26.1 | 28.2 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 24,213 | 15,900 | 40,113 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 13.4 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 85,558 | 71,932 | 157,490 | 54.8 | 50.6 | 52.8 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 48,750 | 43,785 | 92,535 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 313,259 | 223,934 | 537,193 | 26.7 | 22.6 | 24.8 | |||
| March 20202 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 67,302 | 55,991 | 123,293 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 193,331 | 188,980 | 382,311 | 14.6 | 16.7 | 15.5 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 20,370 | 13,524 | 33,894 | 13.2 | 9.9 | 11.6 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 47,375 | 47,769 | 95,144 | 30.7 | 34.8 | 32.6 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 46,932 | 42,467 | 89,399 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 145,956 | 141,211 | 287,167 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 13.2 | |||
| 1 Not seasonally adjusted | |||||||||
| 2 Revised | |||||||||
Purpose
The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes.
Calculation of Monthly Estimates
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly LFS unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding LFS estimate.
For months where the quarterly unemployment data is not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.
Seasonal Adjustment
To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted. To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.
Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Unemployment series during the Covid-19 crisis period will be challenging until the scale and shape of its impact on the time series is better understood. This initial seasonally adjusted result might be revised for some months ahead as future observations become available. Users should be aware that there is increased uncertainty around the seasonally adjusted figures during this period.
Additional Background Information
Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release.
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Show Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - all persons aged 15-74 years
Hide Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - all persons aged 15-74 years