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For more information on this release:
E-mail: labour@cso.ie Catalina Gonzalez (+353) 87 646 7535 Martina O'Callaghan (+353) 21 453 5491
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-8456

This release was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic. For further information on the methodology applied in this release see the Technical Note on Monthly Unemployment Estimates and COVID-19 that was published alongside the August 2020 Monthly Unemployment Estimate release. For more information please also see the Press Statement Monthly Unemployment February 2021 and the Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Live Register and the Monthly Unemployment Estimates.

CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Unemployment

February 2021

Seasonally Adjusted FiguresNon Seasonally Adjusted Figures
 Number of persons unemployed Unemployment rate (%)Traditional Unemployment rate (%) COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rate (%)
February 2020125,200 5.0- -
January 2021141,800 5.85.3 25.1
February 2021140,800 5.85.3 24.8
   Percentage PointsPercentage Points Percentage Points
Change in month-1,000  0.0 0.0  -0.3
Change in year 15,600  0.8- -

The COVID-19 adjusted unemployment rate for February 2021 was 24.8% for all persons including those on the Pandemic Unemployment Payment

Figure 1 Monthly Unemployment  rate seasonally adjusted
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The COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in February 2021. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.8% in February 2021, the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 24.8% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) were classified as unemployed.

The application of the standard methodology gives a seasonally adjusted Monthly Unemployment Rate of 5.8% for February 2021, unchanged from January 2021 and up from 5.0% in February 2020. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 140,800 in February 2021, compared to 141,800 in January 2021. When compared to February 2020, there was an annual increase of 15,600 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed.  In February 2021, the Monthly Unemployment Rate was 5.9% for males and 5.7% for females, see Table 1(a).

Breaking the results down by broad age group, the traditional Monthly Unemployment Rate for those aged 15 to 24 years was 15.1% in February 2021, while it was 4.7% for those aged 25 to 74 years, see Tables 1(b) and 1(c).

The methodology for the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates (MUE) involves forecasting the number of persons who are unemployed using the trend in the Live Register. Please see the Technical Note published alongside the August 2020 release which outlines minor changes made to the methodology used for results presented in this release following analysis of recipient and non-recipient claims in the Live Register Series.

As well as the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates for February 2021, this release also presents an alternative COVID-19 adjusted unemployment measure to estimate the share of the labour force in February 2021 that were not working due to unemployment or who were out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the PUP. These estimates are presented in Table A1.

The lower bound of Monthly Unemployment rates and volumes presented in Table A1 are the non-seasonally adjusted estimates for February 2021 based on the standard methodology. These lower bounds are based on the assumption that none of those in receipt of the PUP would have been classified as unemployed if the payment did not exist.

If all claimants of the PUP were classified as unemployed, the upper bound, or COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 25.4% for males and 24.0% for females in February 2021. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment is 56.8% for those aged 15 to 24 years and 21.1% for those aged 25 to 74 years. See Table A1.

The CSO first published the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment in April 2020 as part of the March 2020 Monthly Unemployment Estimates release. At the time, the COVID-19 income supports were set up as temporary measures to protect those who lost income from employment due to COVID-19.

Those benefitting from the EWSS, having an attachment to their employer, would continue to be classified as Employed using the internationally agreed criteria for reporting on official labour market status. It was not possible to ascertain how those in receipt of the PUP would be classified using the labour market status criteria. Because of this, the CSO established the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment as an upper bound measure for unemployment.

This COVID-19 adjusted measure assumes that all those who are in receipt of the PUP would be classified as Employed for the standard measure on Monthly Unemployment and considers them as Unemployed for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment. This assumption would have held in March 2020 when those who started benefitting from the scheme were required to have lost income from employment to be eligible to receive the payment. The assumption would still hold for new applicants for the PUP but is unlikely to hold now for all recipients given that the scheme has been extended and some recipients would now be in receipt of it for over 11 months.

The Department of Social Protection (DSP) have supplied supplementary information on whether PUP recipients were in full-time education when asked to certify their status on the MyWelfare.ie service. While it should be noted that this information is not complete, it is estimated that at least 8.1% of all recipients of PUP since last March were attending full-time education at the time of certification. For those aged 25 years and over this could be as low as 1.3% while it is at least 33.1% for those aged under 25 years.

This analysis indicates that caution needs to be exercised when interpreting the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment particularly for those aged under 25 years. If the PUP scheme did not exist, those persons, being in full-time education, would not be eligible to receive Unemployment Assistance or Unemployment Benefit and so would not be included in the methodology to estimate the traditional measure of monthly unemployment.

While, it is not possible to ascertain how those in receipt of the PUP in February would be classified in terms of official labour market status, any changes to the methodology for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, including consideration of their education status, would result in a lower rate than the current methodology. Information is not currently available to establish the status of those who are currently in receipt of the PUP based on the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definitions for employment and unemployment. Thus, the CSO have decided to continue with the previous methodology for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment. It is important for users to note that it is a short-term measure and is designed to be an upper bound rate.

It should also be noted that DSP has been paying arrears to recipients of the PUP, to take into account the movement of people in and out of employment. The main arrears payment occurred on 01 December 2020. All arrears paid to date are now included in the week of the entitlement period, rather than the week of payment.

The CSO will continue to evaluate the Live Register series as well as the current and any new income support schemes to determine whether any additional changes are required to the methodology for the traditional or COVID-19 adjusted estimates. Any changes the CSO may make to the methodology in the future will be clearly outlined to users in the statistical release and accompanying material.

 

Data in this release are subject to revision, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series, whenever new monthly data are added. In addition, it should be noted that larger revisions can occur when the most recent Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are included in the calculation process. 

For further information on COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, please refer to our Technical Note (updated for August 2020) and Information Note.

The December 2020 Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) data contained in Table A1 were updated at 12.15pm on the day of release.

 

Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2019February70,50052,100122,600 5.44.75.1
 March70,60052,700123,300 5.44.75.1
 April70,60056,300126,900 5.45.05.2
 May70,40056,100126,500 5.45.05.2
 June70,20054,900125,200 5.44.95.2
 July68,70051,900120,600 5.24.75.0
 August67,80049,600117,300 5.24.54.8
 September65,50048,800114,300 5.04.44.7
 October63,30049,000112,300 4.84.44.6
 November64,00051,100115,100 4.84.54.7
 December66,20053,800120,000 5.04.74.9
 
2020January70,20055,900126,100 5.24.95.1
 February68,70056,500125,200 5.14.95.0
 March67,10055,800122,900 5.15.05.0
 April61,90047,400109,300 4.94.44.7
 May61,70048,500110,200 4.94.64.8
 June67,30056,200123,500 5.35.25.3
 July77,20071,200148,400 6.06.46.2
 August83,00078,500161,400 6.37.06.6
 September86,10080,700166,800 6.57.16.8
 October81,60069,700151,400 6.26.26.2
 November80,70066,200146,900 6.15.96.0
 December77,20063,400140,600 5.95.75.8
 
2021January78,90062,900141,800 6.05.65.8
 February77,20063,700140,800 5.95.75.8
Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2019February22,20014,70036,900 14.610.612.7
 March23,20015,00038,300 15.310.713.1
 April24,30015,60040,000 16.211.113.7
 May24,40015,90040,400 16.411.313.9
 June23,90015,30039,100 15.711.013.5
 July21,70014,40036,000 14.210.612.5
 August20,40013,90034,300 13.310.412.0
 September18,90014,10033,000 12.510.311.4
 October17,60014,40032,000 11.810.211.0
 November18,30014,50032,900 12.29.911.1
 December20,10015,20035,300 12.910.211.6
 
2020January24,30015,10039,400 14.710.012.4
 February22,80015,50038,300 14.010.512.3
 March20,70016,60037,300 13.512.112.8
 April15,60017,60033,200 11.914.513.2
 May14,30019,20033,500 11.916.614.2
 June17,70020,50038,300 14.217.215.6
 July24,70021,60046,300 17.816.417.1
 August27,80022,20050,000 19.216.217.7
 September29,00024,60053,500 19.717.518.6
 October23,10022,40045,600 16.516.716.6
 November21,40023,20044,600 15.517.516.5
 December18,30023,10041,300 13.617.515.5
 
2021January18,60024,30042,900 13.318.115.6
 February15,60024,70040,300 11.518.915.1
Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2019February48,30037,40085,700 4.23.84.0
 March47,30037,70085,000 4.13.84.0
 April46,30040,70087,000 4.04.24.1
 May46,00040,20086,200 4.04.14.0
 June46,40039,70086,000 4.04.14.0
 July47,00037,60084,600 4.13.84.0
 August47,40035,60083,000 4.13.63.9
 September46,60034,70081,300 4.03.53.8
 October45,80034,60080,400 3.93.53.7
 November45,70036,60082,200 3.93.73.8
 December46,10038,50084,700 3.93.93.9
 
2020January45,90040,80086,700 3.94.14.0
 February45,90041,00086,900 3.94.14.0
 March46,40039,20085,600 4.04.04.0
 April46,30029,80076,100 4.13.13.6
 May47,40029,30076,700 4.23.13.7
 June49,60035,60085,200 4.43.74.1
 July52,50049,600102,100 4.55.14.8
 August55,20056,300111,500 4.75.75.2
 September57,20056,100113,300 4.95.65.2
 October58,50047,300105,800 5.04.84.9
 November59,20043,100102,300 5.04.44.7
 December58,90040,30099,300 5.04.14.6
 
2021January60,30038,60098,900 5.13.94.6
 February61,60039,000100,600 5.34.04.7
Table A1 Covid-19 Adjusted Monthly Unemployment Estimates classified by sex and age group
   Number of persons out of work1 Monthly Unemployment Rate %1
Month  MalesFemalesTotal MalesFemalesTotal
February 2021Persons aged 15-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)72,96554,856127,821 5.65.05.3
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)330,706265,962596,668 25.424.024.8
 
 Persons aged 15-24 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)12,98517,48230,467 10.014.612.2
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)68,42973,267141,696 52.861.056.8
 
 Persons aged 25-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)59,98037,37497,354 5.13.84.5
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)262,277192,695454,972 22.419.521.1
 
January 20212Persons aged 15-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)73,42054,137127,557 5.64.95.3
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)339,631269,089608,720 26.024.125.1
 
 Persons aged 15-24 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)13,64116,28329,924 10.313.311.7
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)70,56672,845143,411 53.459.356.2
 
 Persons aged 25-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)59,77937,85497,633 5.13.84.5
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)269,065196,244465,309 22.919.821.5
 
December 20202Persons aged 15-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)75,25257,812133,064 5.85.25.5
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)247,339222,356469,695 18.919.919.4
 
 Persons aged 15-24 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)14,93717,19132,128 11.513.912.7
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)54,28560,455114,740 42.048.945.4
 
 Persons aged 25-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)60,31540,621100,936 5.14.14.7
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)193,054161,901354,955 16.416.316.4
 
November 20202Persons aged 15-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)76,40560,613137,018 5.85.45.6
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)251,252237,718488,970 19.221.320.1
 
 Persons aged 15-24 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)17,09618,39035,486 12.814.513.6
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)57,37765,252122,629 43.051.347.0
 
 Persons aged 25-74 yearsLower Bound (Traditional MUR)59,30942,223101,532 5.04.34.7
  Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR)193,875172,466366,341 16.517.416.9
1 Not seasonally adjusted
2 Revised

Background Notes

Purpose

The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes. 

Calculation of Monthly Estimates

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly LFS unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding LFS estimate.

For months where the quarterly unemployment data is not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.

Seasonal Adjustment

To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted.  To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.

Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Unemployment series during the Covid-19 crisis period will be challenging until the scale and shape of its impact on the time series is better understood. This initial seasonally adjusted result might be revised for some months ahead as future observations become available. Users should be aware that there is increased uncertainty around the seasonally adjusted figures during this period.

Additional Background Information

Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release.

Labour Force Survey (LFS)

Live Register

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