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For more information on this release:
E-mail: labour@cso.ie Sabrina Bowen +353 21 453 5151 Catalina Gonzalez +353 21 453 5163
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-8456
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Monthly Unemployment

December 2017

 Seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%)
December 2016173,600 7.5
November 2017149,900 6.4
December 2017146,700 6.2
   Percentage Points
Change in month- 3,200 - 0.2
Change in year- 26,900 - 1.3

Monthly unemployment rate of 6.2% December 2017

Figure 1 Monthly Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted
go to full release

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December 2017 was 6.2%, down from the revised rate of 6.4% in November 2017 and down from 7.5% in December 2016. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 146,700 in December 2017, down from 149,900 when compared to the November 2017 figure and a decrease of 26,900 when compared to December 2016.

Summary points for December

  • In December 2017 the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6% for males, down from 6.7% in November 2017 and down from 7.6% in December 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for females in December 2017 was 5.8%, down from 6.0% in November 2017 and down from 7.2% in December 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted number of males unemployed in December 2017 was 84,200, down from 85,300 in November 2017. In December 2017 the seasonally adjusted number of females unemployed was 62,400, a decrease of 2,100 when compared to November 2017.
  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for persons aged 15-24 years (youth unemployment rate) was 13.7% in December 2017, a decrease from 14.0% in November 2017.
Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2015December131,70082,900214,600 10.68.09.4
 
2016January126,60079,000205,600 10.27.69.0
 February124,10078,700202,800 9.97.58.8
 March121,90080,700202,600 9.77.78.8
 April121,00084,700205,700 9.68.08.9
 May119,90086,100206,100 9.58.18.9
 June118,30085,700204,000 9.48.18.8
 July116,70081,200197,900 9.27.68.5
 August114,50079,700194,200 9.07.58.3
 September108,60076,300184,900 8.67.28.0
 October103,20075,900179,100 8.27.17.7
 November98,90076,600175,400 7.87.27.5
 December96,10077,500173,600 7.67.27.5
 
2017January93,80077,600171,500 7.47.27.3
 February92,80076,200169,000 7.47.17.2
 March92,10071,800163,900 7.36.77.0
 April92,30064,500156,800 7.36.16.7
 May91,90062,600154,500 7.35.96.7
 June90,80062,800153,600 7.25.96.6
 July90,10067,000157,100 7.16.36.7
 August89,00067,000156,000 7.06.26.7
 September88,10068,000156,100 6.96.36.7
 October87,00066,600153,600 6.86.26.5
 November85,30064,500149,900 6.76.06.4
 December84,20062,400146,700 6.65.86.2
Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2015December33,30018,20051,500 22.714.518.9
 
2016January32,50015,90048,400 22.112.817.8
 February32,00015,80047,800 21.412.517.4
 March31,30017,30048,600 20.713.217.2
 April31,10019,60050,600 20.114.317.4
 May30,90020,70051,600 19.614.817.3
 June31,00020,50051,500 19.514.517.1
 July31,40019,00050,400 19.613.616.8
 August31,50018,40049,900 19.613.216.6
 September30,30017,80048,100 19.012.916.2
 October29,50018,30047,800 18.813.016.1
 November27,90018,60046,500 18.213.215.8
 December25,70018,80044,500 17.013.215.2
 
2017January22,60017,90040,500 15.412.714.1
 February21,50017,40038,900 14.812.513.7
 March23,00017,00039,900 15.812.314.1
 April25,30016,30041,600 17.212.014.7
 May26,20016,40042,600 17.812.315.2
 June25,30016,80042,000 17.912.915.5
 July23,30017,60040,800 17.313.915.7
 August22,00017,70039,800 16.614.415.5
 September21,40017,60039,000 15.814.415.2
 October20,70016,70037,400 15.513.814.7
 November19,90015,60035,500 15.012.914.0
 December19,50014,90034,400 14.812.413.7
Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years
   Number of persons Unemployment rate (%)
   MalesFemalesAll Persons MalesFemalesAll Persons
2015December98,40064,600163,100 8.97.18.1
 
2016January94,10063,100157,200 8.66.97.8
 February92,10062,900155,000 8.46.97.7
 March90,60063,400154,000 8.26.97.6
 April89,90065,200155,000 8.17.17.7
 May89,00065,500154,400 8.07.17.6
 June87,40065,200152,500 7.97.17.5
 July85,30062,200147,500 7.76.77.3
 August83,10061,200144,300 7.56.67.1
 September78,30058,400136,800 7.16.36.7
 October73,70057,600131,300 6.76.36.5
 November70,90058,000128,900 6.46.36.3
 December70,40058,700129,200 6.36.36.3
 
2017January71,20059,700130,900 6.46.46.4
 February71,30058,700130,000 6.46.36.3
 March69,20054,800124,000 6.25.96.1
 April67,00048,200115,200 6.05.25.6
 May65,80046,200111,900 5.95.05.5
 June65,60046,100111,600 5.84.95.4
 July66,80049,500116,300 5.95.25.6
 August67,00049,300116,300 5.95.25.6
 September66,70050,400117,100 5.95.35.6
 October66,30049,900116,200 5.85.25.5
 November65,40049,000114,400 5.75.15.5
 December64,80047,500112,300 5.65.05.3

Background Notes

Background Notes

Purpose

The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes. These outputs now replace the seasonally adjusted Standardised Unemployment Rate (SUR) as the definitive measure of monthly unemployment.

Calculation of Monthly Estimates

The CSO launched the new Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the publication of data for Q3 2017. To ensure that the historic Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) series is comparable with this new survey, adjustments have been made to this QNHS data from Q1 1998 to Q2 2017. The adjustments are based on a comparison of QNHS and LFS data from a parallel run undertaken at the beginning of 2017.

This adjusted QNHS data is then used to provide benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998 until the second quarter of 2017 while the new LFS is used to provide benchmarks from Q3 2017. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding quarterly estimate.

For months where the quarterly unemployment data is not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. The monthly series is revised each quarter when the latest quarterly data becomes available. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.

Benchmark LFS data for Q3 2017 which was not available at the time of publication of monthly estimates for November 2017 is also now available and has therefore been used to calculate the estimates in this release.

In addition, the benchmarks used in this December 2017 monthly unemployment release also take account of the new population estimates arising from the Census of Population 2016.

Additional information on the new LFS and the impact of the revisions arising from the Census of Population 2016 is available in an additional information note.

The adjustments have resulted in changes to the absolute volumes and rates previously published but the underlying trend is largely unchanged.

Comparison of new and previously published unemployment rates

The impact of the adjustments applied as a result of finalising the adjustments to the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) to take account of the new Labour Force Survey (LFS), the availability of final Q3 2017 benchmark data together with the impact of the Census revisions is illustrated below for all persons aged 15-74.

It can be noted that the previously published unemployment estimate for November 2017 has been revised by 0.3 percentage points from 6.1% to 6.4%, while the rate for December 2016 has been revised from 7.4% to 7.5%. The previously published estimate for the number of persons unemployed for November 2017 has also been revised from 138,100 to 146,700.

The full scale of these revisions for recent months is shown in the table below.

Previously published and revised monthly seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed and unemployment rate (%) - all persons aged 15-74

 

Number of persons

 

Unemployment rate (%)

 

Published - November 2017

Revised - December 2017

 

Published - November 2017

Revised - December 2017

2015

December

207,300

214,600

 

9.4

9.4

 

2016

January

197,600

205,600

 

9.0

9.0

 

February

194,500

202,800

 

8.8

8.8

 

March

194,400

202,600

 

8.8

8.8

 

April

197,300

205,700

 

8.9

8.9

 

May

197,800

206,100

 

8.8

8.9

 

June

196,000

204,000

 

8.7

8.8

 

July

191,100

197,900

 

8.5

8.5

 

August

187,300

194,200

 

8.3

8.3

 

September

177,700

184,900

 

7.9

8.0

 

October

171,000

179,100

 

7.6

7.7

 

November

167,100

175,400

 

7.5

7.5

 

December

165,300

173,600

 

7.4

7.5

 

2017

January

164,100

171,500

 

7.3

7.3

 

February

162,400

169,000

 

7.2

7.2

 

March

158,000

163,900

 

7.0

7.0

 

April

150,900

156,800

 

6.7

6.7

 

May

147,800

154,500

 

6.6

6.7

 

June

145,300

153,600

 

6.5

6.6

 

July

146,400

157,100

 

6.5

6.7

 

August

144,300

156,000

 

6.4

6.7

 

September

143,900

156,100

 

6.4

6.7

 

October

141,500

153,600

 

6.3

6.5

 

November

138,100

149,900

 

6.1

6.4

 

December

:

146,700

 

:

6.2

: Data not available

Seasonal Adjustment

To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted.  To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.

Additional Background Information

Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release, while specific information regarding the new LFS and the impact of the revisions arising from the Census of Population 2016 is available in an additional information note.

http://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/presspages/2018/labourforcesurveyq32017/

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