Prison Re-offending Statistics 2019

To provide more timely estimates of re-offending, this chapter provides estimates that relate to custodial releases that took place in 2019. To provide these estimates it is necessary to only include offences that took place a year after release and where the offender has secured a court conviction resulting in reconviction within a further year. Although this method loses coverage of a proportion of re-offending incidents and resulting convictions (as we only look at one year rather than three years) it allows the analysis to come forward to reference year 2019, capturing as it does individuals released in 2019 who re-offend and secure a court conviction to end.

In 2019, slightly more than four out of ten (44.6%) individuals released from custody re-offended within a year of being released. This was a reduction of three percentage points when compared to the same re-offending estimate for 2018 (47.5%). Overall, there has been a reduction in one year custodial re-offending of ten percentage points since 2011. See Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1.

Although under half (44.6%) of all individuals released in 2019 re-offended within a year, over two thirds (69.1%) of under 21’s and more than half (53.3%) of 21 - 25 year olds re-offended within the same period. See Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2.

Six out of ten individuals released from custodial sentences in 2019 in relation to either Public Order (60.3%) or Burglary (60.4%) re-offended within a year of their release. Individuals released from custodial sentences relating to Theft had the highest number of releases (813 out of the 4,026) with 463 or 56.9% of these individuals linked to a re-offence in the year following their release. In contrast, individuals released from custody for serving sentences in relation to Homicide (13.3%) or Sexual (14.6%) offences were the least likely to re-offend. See Table 4.3 and Figure 4.3.

Note: The offence type that individuals are released from custody does not always correspond to the same re-offence type for the individual. Table 4.4 of this publication provides details of one year re-offence types.

Of the 1,794 individuals who re-offended within a year of release in 2019, nearly half (45.5%) re-offended in just two offence groups - Theft (436) or Public Order related offences (381). Individuals released from custody in relation to offences linked to homicide (4), sexual offences (12) and assaults (174) were also most likely to re-offend in Public Order (49) or Theft related offences (40).  See Table 4.4.

Almost six out of ten (58.2%) individuals released in 2019 who spent three to six months in custody prior to release re-offended within a year of being released. In contrast, 36.8% of individuals who had custodial sentence longer than 12 months prior to being released re-offended within a year. See Table 4.5 and Figure 4.4.

Just under half (49%) of re-offences that take place within a year of release from custody resulted in a further custodial sanction for the individual. For re-offences related to Homicide and Robbery, 100% of individuals received custodial sentences although just 28 of the total 1,649 re-offenders in the analysis were convicted of offences related to these offence types. In contrast, the lowest level of custodial re-offence sanctions was seen in Public Order related offences where 25% of individuals received a custodial sentence for their re-offence. See Table 4.6 and Figure 4.5.