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Details of 1-Year Custodial Re-offending

    These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by the CSO.

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To provide more timely estimates of re-offending, this chapter provides estimates that relate to custodial releases that took place in 2019. To provide these estimates it is necessary to only include offences that took place a year after release and where the offender has secured a court conviction resulting in reconviction within a further year. Although this method loses coverage of a proportion of re-offending incidents and resulting convictions (as we only look at one year rather than three years) it allows the analysis to come forward to reference year 2019, capturing as it does individuals released in 2019 who re-offend and secure a court conviction to end.

1 yr Time Chart

In 2019, slightly more than four out of ten (44.6%) individuals released from custody re-offended within a year of being released. This was a reduction of three percentage points when compared to the same re-offending estimate for 2018 (47.5%). Overall, there has been a reduction in one year custodial re-offending of ten percentage points since 2011. See Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1.

Table 4.1 Individuals released from custody 2011 - 2019 classified by 1-year re-offending indicator

1-year re-offending indicator
201154
201249.5
201345.2
201444.4
201547.2
201648.5
201747.2
201847.5
201944.6
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Although under half (44.6%) of all individuals released in 2019 re-offended within a year, over two thirds (69.1%) of under 21’s and more than half (53.3%) of 21 - 25 year olds re-offended within the same period. See Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2.

Table 4.2 Individuals released from custody 2011 - 2019 classified by 1-year re-offending indicator and age

Less than 21 years21 - 25 years26 - 30 years31 - 35 years36 - 40 years41 - 50 yearsAged 50 and over
201175.663.65147.443.93933.3
201276.855.450.845.141.535.523.5
201370.25346.141.539.331.921.8
20147254.442.140.137.334.326
20157158534436.833.719
201673.757.953.846.839.139.621.3
201775.356.152.647.941.934.819.5
201870.459.551.545.746.334.225.5
201969.153.347.645.139.137.323.8
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Six out of ten individuals released from custodial sentences in 2019 in relation to either Public Order (60.3%) or Burglary (60.4%) re-offended within a year of their release. Individuals released from custodial sentences relating to Theft had the highest number of releases (813 out of the 4,026) with 463 or 56.9% of these individuals linked to a re-offence in the year following their release. In contrast, individuals released from custody for serving sentences in relation to Homicide (13.3%) or Sexual (14.6%) offences were the least likely to re-offend. See Table 4.3 and Figure 4.3.

Note: The offence type that individuals are released from custody does not always correspond to the same re-offence type for the individual. Table 4.4 of this publication provides details of one year re-offence types.

Table 4.3 Individuals released from custody in 2019 classified by 1-year re-offending indicator and offence type

Re-offended within 1 year
07 Burglary and Related Offences60.4
13 Public Order and Other Social Code Offences60.3
08 Theft and Related Offences56.9
12 Damage to Property and to the Environment56.8
11 Weapons and Explosives Offences50.4
06 Robbery, Extortion and Hijacking Offences 46.4
15 Offences against Government, Justice Procedures and Organisation of Crime 42.3
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments and Related Offences41.5
04 Dangerous or Negligent Acts38.2
14 Road and Traffic Offences35.4
05 Kidnapping and Related Offences34.8
09 Fraud, Deception and Related Offences34.5
10 Controlled Drug Offences31.1
16 Offences not elsewhere Classified15.4
02 Sexual Offences14.6
01 Homicide and Related Offences13.3
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Of the 1,794 individuals who re-offended within a year of release in 2019, nearly half (45.5%) re-offended in just two offence groups - Theft (436) or Public Order related offences (381). Individuals released from custody in relation to offences linked to homicide (4), sexual offences (12) and assaults (174) were also most likely to re-offend in Public Order (49) or Theft related offences (40).  See Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 Individuals released from custody in 2019 classified by 1-year re-offending indicator, offence relating to release and re-offending offence type

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Almost six out of ten (58.2%) individuals released in 2019 who spent three to six months in custody prior to release re-offended within a year of being released. In contrast, 36.8% of individuals who had custodial sentence longer than 12 months prior to being released re-offended within a year. See Table 4.5 and Figure 4.4.

Table 4.5 Individuals released from custody in 2019 classified by length of custodial period prior to release and re-offending indicator

Less than 3 months3 to 6 months6 to 9 months9 to 12 monthsGreater than 12 months
% re-offending43.458.248.44836.8
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Just under half (49%) of re-offences that take place within a year of release from custody resulted in a further custodial sanction for the individual. For re-offences related to Homicide and Robbery, 100% of individuals received custodial sentences although just 28 of the total 1,649 re-offenders in the analysis were convicted of offences related to these offence types. In contrast, the lowest level of custodial re-offence sanctions was seen in Public Order related offences where 25% of individuals received a custodial sentence for their re-offence. See Table 4.6 and Figure 4.5.

Table 4.6 Individuals released from custody in 2019 classified by re-offence type and re-offending sanction type

Custodial sanctionNon custodial sanction
13 Public Order and Other Social Code Offences2575
10 Controlled Drug Offences31.768.3
14 Road and Traffic Offences34.165.9
04 Dangerous or Negligent Acts46.353.7
16 Offences not elsewhere Classified5050
15 Offences against Government, Justice Procedures and Organisation of Crime 51.348.7
09 Fraud, Deception and Related Offences52.647.4
08 Theft and Related Offences66.533.5
11 Weapons and Explosives Offences66.733.3
12 Damage to Property and to the Environment66.733.3
07 Burglary and Related Offences69.430.6
02 Sexual Offences7525
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments and Related Offences78.621.4
01 Homicide and Related Offences1000
06 Robbery, Extortion and Hijacking Offences 1000