The value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices is expected to fall by 12% (-€1.6bn) to €11.3bn in 2023.
With only a minor change in output volumes and prices down by 27%, the value of Milk production is forecast to contract by almost €1.4bn to €3.6bn in 2023.
The value of Crops is estimated to fall by 11% (-€299m) in 2023 to €2.3bn. Cereal values are expected to drop by 48% (-€333m) to €362m due to the combined impact of prices falling by a third and volumes also decreasing.
The value of pigs and poultry are estimated to increase in 2023. With prices up by 22% and volumes down by 8%, the value of Pig production is projected to go up by €74m to €694m. The value of Poultry is forecast to rise by 11% (+€21m) to €226m with prices accounting for almost 6% of this growth.
Intermediate Consumption costs are estimated to fall by 5% (-€391m) to €7.5bn in 2023. This drop is primarily due to the cost of Fertilisers contracting by 32% (-€384m) to €824m due to prices falling by 22% and volumes also decreasing.
Expenditure on Energy & Lubricants is estimated to contract by 5% (-€29m) to €605m due mainly to lower prices (-4%).
Agricultural Operating Surplus is expected to decline by 32% (-€1.5bn) to €3.2bn in 2023.
The figures for 2023 are advance estimates which are provisional and based on the latest available data. These figures are subject to change once the complete set of data for the full year becomes available. Updated figures for 2023 will be published in the Preliminary Estimate in March 2024, followed by the Final Estimate in June 2024.
| Table 1.1: Output, Input and Income in Agriculture, 2023 | ||||||
| € million | Annual Change (%) | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
| Goods Output | 9,605 | 12,285 | 10,667 | 27.9 | -13.2 | |
| Intermediate Consumption | 6,143 | 7,919 | 7,527 | 28.9 | -4.9 | |
| Net Subsidies | 1,716 | 1,938 | 1,643 | 12.9 | -15.3 | |
| Operating Surplus | 3,678 | 4,720 | 3,187 | 28.3 | -32.5 | |
| X-axis label | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Output | 9.605 | 12.285 | 10.667 |
| Intermediate Consumption | 6.143 | 7.919 | 7.527 |
| Net Subsidies | 1.716 | 1.938 | 1.643 |
| Operating Surplus | 3.678 | 4.72 | 3.187 |
The CSO’s first estimate of Agricultural Operating Surplus for 2023 is a drop of 32% (-€1.5bn) to €3.2bn. The main reason for this fall is a sharp reduction in the value of milk and cereals.
Cereal values are expected to decline by almost 48% (-€333m) to €362m. While the area planted with Cereals was down 6%, unfavourable weather at key times during the cereal growing season saw yields also fall. The impact of this reduction in output on Cereal values was compounded by lower prices, which are estimated to have dropped by a third.
Milk prices are projected to be down by 27%, and with yields also marginally lower, the value of Milk is expected to fall by almost €1.4bn to €3.6bn.
There were relatively small reductions in the value of cattle and sheep. While Cattle prices grew by 4%, volumes are expected to be down 5% by the year end, and as a result, the value of Cattle is calculated to be €3.0bn, a fall of €44m on 2022 values. Despite marginal growth in output volumes (+1%), the value of sheep is expected to contract by 2% (-€6m) to €371m due to lower prices (-3%).
Pig and poultry production performed better. With prices up by 22% but volumes down by 8%, the value of Pigs grew by 12% (+€74m) to €694m. Poultry prices grew by 6% and with volumes also up, the value of Poultry rose by 11% (+€21m) to €226m. Overall, it is estimated that the value of Livestock will grow by 1% to €4.6bn in 2023.
The value of Crops is expected to be down by 11% (-€299m) to €2.3bn in 2023 due to the impact of lower Cereal values (-€333m) and changes to the value of Forage Plants (-€27m) and Other Crops (+€61m). With only a minor change (-1%) in the volume produced and prices estimated to also fall by 1%, the value of Forage Plants is expected to drop to €1.3bn.
Overall, the value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices is expected to decrease by 12% (-€1.6bn) to €11.3bn.
With the notable exception of fertilisers and feeding stuffs, the estimated cost of most inputs is based on price changes for the year to date. On that basis, Intermediate Consumption costs are expected to fall by 5% (-€391m) to €7.5bn. Fertilisers are responsible for €384m of this drop. With prices down by almost 22% and the quantity used also lower, the cost of Fertilisers is estimated to fall by 32% to €824m. Expenditure on Energy and Lubricants is expected to contract by 5% (-€29m) to €605m while the cost of Forage Plants will drop by 2% (-€27m) to €1.3bn.
With the value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices down by €1.6bn, Intermediate Consumption falling by €391m, Other Subsidies less Taxes on Production contracting by €305m and Compensation of Employees costs growing by €19m, the Operating Surplus is expected to decrease by 32% (-€1.5bn) to €3.2bn in 2023.
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (07 December 2023) released Output, Input and Income Agriculture – Advance Estimate 2023.
Commenting on the release, Mairead Griffin, Statistician in the Agricultural Accounts and Production Section of the CSO, said: “This release provides an early estimate of the value of agricultural outputs, inputs, and income for 2023. When interpreting the results, it’s important to keep in mind that they are subject to change, particularly in relation to input costs.
Outputs
The year’s results are dominated by two outputs, namely Milk and Cereals, which both experienced large drops in value. Milk prices are expected to contract by almost 27% and with just a marginal fall in production volumes, the value of Milk is estimated to decline by almost €1.4bn to €3.6bn, bringing it back to just 7% above its 2021 value. The value of cereals was impacted by both prices, which fell by a third, and lower yields due to unfavourable weather at key times during the cereal growing season.
We do not envisage any great change in the overall value of livestock, which we estimate to be up by about 1% to €4.6bn, although until closing stocks and end of year prices are available, these figures are, like others in the release, subject to change.
We expect that Cattle and Sheep values will be down by about 1% and 2% respectively. There is some good news in relation to pig and poultry production. Despite lower volumes, Pig values are expected to be up by 12% to €694m due to prices increasing by 22%. Poultry values are forecast to grow by 11% to €226m due to the combined impact of prices rising by almost 6% and volumes also increasing.
Input costs
In relation to input costs, we estimate that Intermediate Consumptions costs will fall by 5% to €7.5bn. However, it should be noted that apart from fertiliser and feed costs, we have almost no information about any changes to the volume of inputs used on farms. The cost of Fertilisers is expected to drop by almost a third to €824m as we estimate that average prices for 2023 will decline by 22% and volumes are also set to contract. Based mainly on the available information on price changes, it is currently estimated that the cost of Energy & Lubricants will fall by 5% to €605m.
The net impact of these and other changes on Operating Surplus is that it will decrease by 32% to just under €3.2bn in 2023.”